Sevilla vs Alavés: prediction, tip and odds, 6 November 2026, La Liga

Sevilla vs Alavés betting prediction

We like Draw or Alavés (X2) at odds 1.91, which the bookmakers rate at a 52% chance, for Sevilla against Alavés at the Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán on 6 November 2026, kick-off 20:00. Sevilla are sixth and Alavés eleventh, and that gap looks bigger on the table than in the numbers behind it. We would not back a home win to come easily here.

Sevilla at home, Alavés on the road

Sevilla have 17 points from 11 matches in this competition, with five wins, two draws and four defeats. They have scored 17 and conceded 19, which works out at 1.5 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per match. The home split is the more useful part of that picture: three wins, no draws and two defeats, with seven goals for and seven against. Sevilla win at home.

Alavés have 12 points, from three wins, three draws and five defeats, with 15 scored and 17 conceded. Their away figures are the problem. They have not won on the road in this competition this season, drawing twice and losing three, with four goals scored and eleven conceded. A side that cannot win away is a side we are happy to back for a draw or a point.

Recent form points the wrong way for Sevilla

This is where we are most persuaded. Across their last five matches in all competitions, Sevilla have won one, drawn one and lost three, scoring eight and conceding thirteen. The win was the 2-0 home success over Osasuna, and the three defeats came against Barcelona, Real Madrid and Getafe. Sevilla have won only one of their last five, and that is the core of our tip.

Alavés are not in much better shape. Their last five, again across all competitions, bring no wins, two draws (the 0-0 at Athletic Club and the 1-1 home game with Málaga) and three defeats, with four scored and eleven conceded. The 6-1 loss at Barcelona is the heavy one. These last five matches come from all competitions, so they do not match the league table one-for-one, but they show neither side arriving in form.

What the last 20 meetings tell us

History leans towards Sevilla. In the last 20 meetings they have won eight, drawn seven and lost five to Alavés, with 25 goals for Sevilla and 21 for Alavés. Seven draws in 20 is a lot of stalemates, and the most recent meeting, on 14 February 2026, finished 1-1.

The results from the last few visits are mixed. Alavés won 1-0 at home on 17 December 2025 and 2-1 at home on 20 September 2024, while Sevilla won 2-1 on 20 September 2025 (at Alavés). A 1-1 draw on 20 April 2025 completes a pattern of close results. Alavés have beaten Sevilla in this fixture before, so the draw-or-Alavés double does not rely on a one-off.

No team news to change the picture

No absences have been reported for either side, so we are judging both teams on their full strength. That removes one possible reason to fear a dramatic change in the line-up and leaves the decision to form and the market.

What the bookmakers expect

The bookmakers make Sevilla the most likely winners at 48%, with best odds of 2.05. The draw is at 28% (best odds 3.51) and an Alavés win at 23% (best odds 4.28). These figures describe only what the market expects, and the bookmaker margin on the result is 5.8%. Expected goals are about one for each side, so roughly two in total. The most likely exact scores are 1-0 at 13.2%, 1-1 at 12.5% and 2-0 at 9.5%.

Both teams to score is priced at 48% for yes (best odds 1.95) and 52% for no (best odds 1.85). That is close to a coin flip, and we see no reason to lean on it.

Why the draw-or-Alavés double is our main tip

Our main tip is Draw or Alavés (X2) at odds 1.91, with a 52% chance. The reasoning is simple: Sevilla have won only one of their last five, and the market gives this double 52% at best odds 1.91. We think a home side dropping points this often is worth more than the price suggests.

The tip wins on 1-1, 0-0 and 0-1. It loses on 1-0, 2-0 and 2-1. So the scorelines that hurt us are the ones where Sevilla win, and the two most likely home wins, 1-0 and 2-0, are exactly where the bet fails. That is the risk, and we accept it.

Another tip: Under 2.5 goals

Our second tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds 1.73, with a 57% chance. The expected total of about 2 goals is the reason, and the market gives the under 57% at best odds 1.73.

The bet wins on 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 0-0 and 0-1. It loses only on 2-1, which makes it the more forgiving of our two tips on the scorelines.

Other bets we would consider

We are not chasing the whole board, but a few prices catch our eye and fit the tips. Under 3.5 goals at odds 1.25 (76% chance) sits comfortably with the expected total of about two. Alavés +1.5 at odds 1.29 (75% chance) wins unless Alavés lose by 2 or more, which suits a side that has struggled away. For corners, Under 10.5 at odds 1.27 (72% chance) and Under 11.5 at odds 1.15 (81% chance) are the shorter prices; we would take the latter only for the safety it offers.

What ties these bets together is the match we expect: a home side, an Alavés side that has lost its way on the road, and a total that the market puts at about two goals. We think the draw or Alavés double is the best way to back that view, and the reasons are there in the form, the record away from home and the price.