Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 6–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Barcelona play Alavés at home on 31 October 2026 · 20:00 at Spotify Camp Nou (Barcelona); the referee is Adrian Cordero Vega. For us, Barcelona (86%) are favourites. Our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and a match analysis are below.
Barcelona vs Alavés: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Barcelona are 1st in the table, on 30 points after 11 matches (10W 0D 1L), and Alavés are 11th, on 12 points (3W 3D 5L).
- Attack and defence. On average Barcelona score 4.0 goals a match in the competition and concede 1.1; for Alavés the figures are 1.4 scored and 1.1 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Barcelona: 9W 0D 1L, goals 40–11; Alavés: 3W 3D 4L, goals 14–11.
- Head to head. From 19 meetings: 15 wins for Barcelona, 2 wins for Alavés and 2 draws, with the goals at 51–12.
What to expect
For us, Barcelona are the more likely winners. We estimate a 3–1 score, roughly 4 goals in all, with 3–0 (10.3%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
Odds of 1.13 on the result do not offer much, so it is worth turning to the goals markets: Over 3.5 goals (odds 1.68), which we rate at 61%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 51% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 78% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 19; Barcelona 15 wins, 2 draws, Alavés 2 wins.
- An average of 3.3 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: Barcelona 40–11, Alavés 14–11.
- Expected: roughly 4 goals; over 2.5 goals: 78%.
- Out: Barcelona 6, Alavés 2.
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes (probability 51%, best price 1.90). With roughly 4 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Barcelona: R. Bardghji, A. Christensen, X. Espart, D. Olmo, E. Garcia, J. Kounde. Absent for Alavés: F. Garces, M. Rodriguez. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Barcelona vs Alavés: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 1.13 | 11.20 | 23.00 |
| Market average | 1.11 | 10.48 | 19.89 |
| Lowest odds | 1.08 | 8.30 | 12.52 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.07 | 1.04 | 89.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.25 | 1.20 | 78.1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 4.80 | 4.34 | 21.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 1.68 | 1.57 | 60.5% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.90 | 1.82 | 50.9% |
| BTTS – no | 2.00 | 1.89 | 49.1% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 31/10/26, 17:50. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 5.0%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Barcelona 3–0 Alavés, roughly 4 goals in total.
- Table: Barcelona 1st (30 points), Alavés 11th (12 points).
- Form in the competition: Barcelona 9W 0D 1L (40:11), Alavés 3W 3D 4L (14:11).
- H2H: 19 matches: Barcelona 15W 2D 2L, goals 51–12.
- Absences: Barcelona 6, Alavés 2.
Who will win Barcelona vs Alavés?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Barcelona vs Alavés: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Barcelona vs Alavés: team news and absences
Barcelona
- R. Bardghjiknee injury · will miss the match
- A. Christensenmuscle injury · will miss the match
- X. Espartankle injury · will miss the match
- D. Olmogroin injury · will miss the match
- E. Garciamuscle injury · doubtful
- J. Koundeankle injury · doubtful
Alavés
- F. Garcessuspended · will miss the match
- M. Rodriguezankle injury · will miss the match
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 11 | 10-0-1 | 46:12 | 30 |
| 2 |  Atlético Madrid | 11 | 9-1-1 | 22:8 | 28 |
| 3 |  Real Madrid | 11 | 9-0-2 | 28:10 | 27 |
| 4 |  Real Betis | 11 | 7-2-2 | 18:15 | 23 |
| 5 |  Real Sociedad | 11 | 6-1-4 | 20:20 | 19 |
| 6 |  Sevilla | 11 | 5-2-4 | 17:19 | 17 |
| 7 |  Athletic Club | 10 | 4-3-3 | 14:10 | 15 |
| 8 |  Deportivo La Coruña | 11 | 3-5-3 | 15:14 | 14 |
| 9 |  Villarreal | 11 | 3-3-5 | 15:15 | 12 |
| 10 |  Celta Vigo | 11 | 2-6-3 | 10:10 | 12 |
| 11 | Alavés | 11 | 3-3-5 | 15:17 | 12 |
| 12 |  Rayo Vallecano | 10 | 3-3-4 | 15:20 | 12 |
| 13 |  Getafe | 11 | 3-3-5 | 8:16 | 12 |
| 14 |  Espanyol | 11 | 3-2-6 | 13:14 | 11 |
| 15 |  Osasuna | 11 | 3-2-6 | 11:22 | 11 |
| 16 |  Racing Santander | 11 | 3-2-6 | 15:29 | 11 |
| 17 |  Elche | 11 | 2-4-5 | 14:18 | 10 |
| 18 |  Levante | 11 | 2-4-5 | 16:21 | 10 |
| 19 |  Valencia | 11 | 2-3-6 | 8:17 | 9 |
| 20 |  Málaga | 11 | 0-5-6 | 8:21 | 5 |
Recent matches
Barcelona
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
BarcelonaWLWWWAlavésLDLLDHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Barcelona vs Alavés?
Over 3.5 goals (1.68); Barcelona to win (1.13).
Who will win Barcelona vs Alavés?
We estimate: Barcelona win 86%, draw 9%, Alavés win 5%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 31 October 2026, kick-off: 20:00, venue: Spotify Camp Nou, Barcelona. Referee: Adrian Cordero Vega.
Who will be missing?
Barcelona: R. Bardghji, A. Christensen, X. Espart, D. Olmo, E. Garcia, J. Kounde. Alavés: F. Garces, M. Rodriguez. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 78% (odds 1.25); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 22% (odds 4.80).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 51% (odds 1.90).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 3–0 as most likely (10.3%), then 2–0 (9.1%) and 4–0 (8.8%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
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