Bet with Freshbet →Our tip for Belarus vs Albania (UEFA Nations League, 15 November 2026, 17:00): Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.70. Second tip: Albania to win at odds of 2.08. The bookmakers' odds give Belarus 25%, the draw 29% and Albania 46%. The most likely score is 0–1.
Belarus vs Albania betting prediction
Can Albania's away form in this group hold up against a Belarus side that has kept clean sheets in its recent games? On the figures we have, we think it can, though the scoreline is the part that worries us. The kick-off is at 17:00 on 15 November 2026.
At a glance
- Likely result: Belarus 0–1 Albania, roughly 2 goals in total.
- Table: Belarus 2nd (10 points), Albania 1st (12 points).
- Form in the competition: Belarus 2W 1D 1L (5:2), Albania 3W 0D 1L (8:3).
- H2H: 3 matches: Belarus 0W 0D 3L, goals 2–7.
- Absences: Belarus 0, Albania 0.
Albania lead on points in this group
Albania sit first in this competition with 9 points from 4 matches, three wins and one defeat, with 8 goals scored and 3 conceded. Belarus are second on 7 points, with 2 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat and 5 goals scored against 2. The standings cover this competition only, so they tell us nothing about either side's results in friendlies or other tournaments.
The gap is two points, which is not a chasm. Still, Albania have been the more productive side here, and that is the first thing we would look at.
Who will win Belarus vs Albania?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Recent form across all competitions
Albania have won 3 of their last 4 matches in all competitions, and their only defeat in that run was a 2-1 loss away to Finland on 3 October 2026. Their most recent game was a 2-1 home win over San Marino on 6 October. Across those four matches they have scored 8 and conceded 3, which is the kind of return that suggests a side able to score without being pulled apart at the back.
Belarus have the steadier defence but the thinner attack. Their last four matches in all competitions brought 2 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, with 5 goals scored and 2 conceded. They kept a clean sheet in three of those games, yet they scored in only two. That is a team that is hard to beat but not always able to beat anyone itself.
Standings and form
League C – Group A
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Albania | 5 | 4-0-1 | 10:3 | 12 |
| 2 |  Belarus | 5 | 3-1-1 | 7:2 | 10 |
| 3 |  Finland | 5 | 2-1-2 | 9:4 | 7 |
| 4 |  San Marino | 5 | 0-0-5 | 1:18 | 0 |
Recent matches
Belarus
Home and away
Albania have had the better of recent meetings
Albania have won all three of the last meetings between these sides. The most recent was the 2-0 win in Albania on 26 September 2026, which was also the first game in Belarus's four-match run above. Before that came a 3-2 Albania win on 18 November 2020, and a 2-0 Albania win on 4 September 2020 (Belarus 0-2 Albania).
Across those three games Belarus scored just twice. Head-to-head evidence is never a guarantee, but three straight defeats for one side against the same opponent tells us something about how these teams match up.
Head to head
All matchesNo absentees on either side
Neither Belarus nor Albania have any absentees reported. We have no injury or suspension news to weigh, so the judgement rests on form, the table and the meetings between the two teams.
Belarus vs Albania: team news and absences
Belarus
- No reported absences
Albania
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
BelarusWWWDLAlbaniaWWLWWWhat the odds say about this match
The bookmakers make Albania the favourites, with a 58% chance at best odds of 1.70. Belarus are priced at 24% (best odds 3.88) and a draw at 28% (best odds 3.38). The bookmaker margin on the match result is 5.4%, so these chances are close to the prices on offer.
The expected goals are about 1 for each side, roughly 2 in total. The most likely exact score is 0-1 at 15.1%, followed by 1-1 at 12.9% and 0-0 at 11.6%. These figures describe what the market expects. They are not a record of how often either team has won in the past.
Belarus vs Albania: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 4.00 | 3.40 | 2.08 |
| Market average | 3.79 | 3.26 | 2.02 |
| Lowest odds | 3.60 | 3.10 | 1.95 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.44 | 1.40 | 67.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.38 | 2.25 | 42.2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.70 | 1.64 | 57.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 4.60 | 4.17 | 22.6% |
| BTTS – yes | 2.00 | 1.95 | 47.6% |
| BTTS – no | 1.83 | 1.77 | 52.4% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 13/11/26, 16:11. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 6.6%.
Belarus vs Albania: last matches of both teams
Belarus
Albania
Another tip: Albania to win
We are backing Albania to win at odds of 1.70, a market chance of 58%. We think the price is fair given Albania's form and the head-to-head record, and we would be happy to back it on those grounds.
Our main reasons are these:
- Albania won 3 of their last 4 matches in all competitions.
- Albania sit first in this competition with 9 points, while Belarus are second with 7.
- Albania have won 3 of the last 3 meetings with Belarus.
- The market gives Albania a 58% chance at best odds of 1.70.
The bet settles on the likeliest scores with Belarus at home and Albania away. A 0-1 win, a 0-2 win and a 1-2 win all return for Albania. A 1-0 Belarus win, a 1-1 draw or a 0-0 draw lose it. So the result is not enough on its own; Albania need to win and avoid a home 1-0 or a stalemate. That is the real risk, and it is why we would not stake heavily.
Belarus vs Albania: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Correct score prediction
No second selection on this one
We have no other bets to recommend for this match. The draw at 3.38 and the Belarus win at 3.88 are on the board, but we would not back either. A goalless or 1-1 finish would lose our main tip, and the market's 28% for a draw does not persuade us to take that side.
Our verdict on Albania
Albania look the better side on the evidence in front of us: better results across their recent matches, a higher place in this group, and a clean sweep of the last three meetings. Belarus have shown they can keep clean sheets, but they have not scored often enough to trouble a team that wins the way Albania do. We will take Albania at 1.70 and accept that a home 1-0 or a 1-1 could still spoil the afternoon.
Returns calculator
Match events
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Belarus vs Albania?
Under 2.5 goals (1.70); Albania to win (2.08).
Who will win Belarus vs Albania?
We estimate: Belarus win 25%, draw 29%, Albania win 46%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 15 November 2026, kick-off: 17:00, venue: Illovszky Rudolf Stadion, Budapest.
Who will be missing?
Belarus: no absences. Albania: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 42% (odds 2.38); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 58% (odds 1.70).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 48% (odds 2.00).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 0–1 as most likely (13.4%), then 1–1 (12.7%) and 0–0 (9.5%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
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