Bet with Freshbet →Our tip for Belgium vs Italy (UEFA Nations League, 15 November 2026, 19:45): Italy +0.5 (Asian handicap) at odds of 1.79. Second tip: Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.51. The bookmakers' odds give Belgium 45%, the draw 25% and Italy 30%. The most likely score is 1–1.
Wins: Italy win, a draw. Loses: Italy lose.
Belgium vs Italy betting prediction
Belgium host Italy on 15 November 2026 at 19:45 in Matchweek 6 of the UEFA Nations League, and the numbers lean one way before a ball is kicked. The expected goals are Belgium 2 and Italy 1, about three goals in total. The likeliest exact score is 1-1 at 11.2%, just ahead of 2-1 at 8.9%, so the market expects a game with a home edge rather than a rout.
At a glance
- Likely result: Belgium 1–1 Italy, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Belgium 3rd (9 points), Italy 1st (10 points).
- Form in the competition: Belgium 2W 0D 2L (6:5), Italy 2W 1D 1L (8:5).
- H2H: 6 matches: Belgium 1W 1D 4L, goals 6–9.
- Absences: Belgium 0, Italy 0.
Attack against defence: Italy score more
In this competition only, Italy have scored 8 and conceded 5, which is 2.0 goals per match scored. Belgium have scored 6 and conceded 5, which is 1.5 per match. Both sides concede 1.3 per match, so the difference sits entirely in the attack. That is the number that makes Italy look like the better side on paper, and we would not argue with it.
The defensive figures are where Belgium can hold their own. Conceding 1.3 per match, the same as Italy, is not a weakness we can exploit, and it is the reason we see the home side as hard to beat rather than easy to score against.
Belgium vs Italy: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Form across all competitions, and a home table
The table tells one story and the recent results tell another. In this competition only, Belgium are third on 6 points and Italy are second on 7. Those are the only league-style figures we have, and they cover this competition alone. Across all competitions, Belgium's last four matches brought two wins and two defeats, with 6 goals scored and 5 conceded. Italy's last four brought two wins, a draw and a defeat, with 8 scored and 5 conceded.
At home in this competition, Belgium have won once, drawn none and lost once, scoring 3 and conceding 1. Italy's away record is the stronger one, with a win, a draw and no defeat. We do not think that makes Italy the favourites on the road, because the bookmakers give Belgium a 42% chance to win outright against Italy's 33%. We follow the market on that.
Standings and form
League A – Group A
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Italy | 5 | 3-1-1 | 11:6 | 10 |
| 2 |  France | 5 | 3-1-1 | 8:5 | 10 |
| 3 |  Belgium | 5 | 3-0-2 | 8:6 | 9 |
| 4 |  Türkiye | 5 | 0-0-5 | 3:13 | 0 |
Recent matches
Belgium
Home and away
Meetings that favour Italy
The head-to-head record is the figure that keeps us cautious about a straight Belgian win. In the last six meetings Italy have won four, Belgium have won one and one game was drawn, with the goals at 9 for Italy and 6 for Belgium. The most recent meeting, Italy 0-2 Belgium on 25/9/26, went Belgium's way, but the older results show Italy winning in Belgium 0-1 on 14/11/24 and 2-1 in Italy on 10/10/21.
That history is why we do not want to back Italy to win outright, and also why we are not fully comfortable backing Belgium to win. The draw is the answer that covers the gap.
Who will win Belgium vs Italy?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
No absences to weigh up
No absences are reported for either side. That removes one variable from the preview, and it leaves form, the venue and the head-to-head record to do the work. We would not read anything into the squads beyond that.
Belgium vs Italy: team news and absences
Belgium
- No reported absences
Italy
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
BelgiumWLWLWItalyWWDWLHow we would bet it: Belgium or draw first
Our main tip is Belgium or draw (1X) at odds 1.79, which the bookmakers give a 55% chance. It is a short price, so the stake should be modest, but it is the bet we like most. Three things back it up:
- Belgium have won 2 of their last 4 matches.
- Belgium's home record in this competition includes one win.
- The bookmakers give Belgium or the draw a 55% chance at best odds of 1.79.
The 1X wins on 1-1, 2-1, 1-0 and 2-0, and it loses on 1-2 and 0-1. Both losing scores are Italian wins, which is the risk we accept at this price.
Both teams to score as the second angle
Our second tip is both teams to score at odds 1.53, a 60% chance in the market. Belgium have failed to score in only 1 of their last 4 matches, and Italy have failed to score in only 1 of theirs. Italy have also seen both teams score in 3 of their last 4 matches. The expected total of about three goals, with Belgium at 2 and Italy at 1, fits that pattern.
This bet settles differently from the main tip. It wins on 1-1, 2-1 and 1-2, and it loses on 1-0, 0-1 and 2-0. A single-goal win for either side, or a 2-0 Belgian win, ends it. We rate it as the second option because the market's 60% is the figure we trust most.
Belgium vs Italy: last matches of both teams
Belgium
Italy
Head to head
All matchesOther markets and where we stand
We have no other bets to recommend for this match, so the two tips are the whole of our advice. The market figures are there for readers who want the wider picture. Over 2.5 goals has a 57% chance at best odds of 1.60, while under 2.5 has 43% at 2.14. Over 3.5 goals sits at 35% with best odds of 2.63. The bookmaker margin on the match result is 8.4%. These are what the bookmakers expect, not selections from us.
Belgium vs Italy: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 2.18 | 3.91 | 3.30 |
| Market average | 2.11 | 3.69 | 3.13 |
| Lowest odds | 2.05 | 3.25 | 2.89 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.22 | 1.19 | 78.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.69 | 1.66 | 57.2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.31 | 2.22 | 42.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.63 | 2.59 | 36.2% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.60 | 1.55 | 59.8% |
| BTTS – no | 2.38 | 2.31 | 40.2% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 13/11/26, 16:11. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 6.6%.
The most likely score
Our expectation is a 1-1 draw, the most likely exact score at 11.2%. It also sits inside the Belgium or draw tip, so the main bet covers the score we think is most likely, while both teams to score wins on it too.
Returns calculator
Match events
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Belgium vs Italy?
Italy +0.5 (Asian handicap) (1.79); Under 3.5 goals (1.51).
Who will win Belgium vs Italy?
We estimate: Belgium win 45%, draw 25%, Italy win 30%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 15 November 2026, kick-off: 19:45, venue: Roi Baudouin, Brussels.
Who will be missing?
Belgium: no absences. Italy: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 57% (odds 1.69); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 43% (odds 2.31).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 60% (odds 1.60).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–1 as most likely (11.2%), then 2–1 (9.3%) and 1–0 (8.6%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.