Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 2–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Derry City v Dundalk: 23 October 2026 · 19:45 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium (Derry), with M. Lynch refereeing. We have Derry City (55%) down as favourites. Scroll down for the tip, the chances of each outcome, absences and our breakdown of the game.
Derry City vs Dundalk: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Derry City are 5th in the table, on 48 points after 36 matches (11W 15D 10L), and Dundalk are 6th, on 45 points (11W 12D 13L).
- Head to head. From 29 meetings: 8 wins for Derry City, 9 wins for Dundalk and 12 draws, with the goals at 46–41.
What to expect
For us, Derry City are the more likely winners. We estimate a 2–1 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 1–1 (10.3%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
In the goals market we pick Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.54), and we rate it at 61%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 59% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 60% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 29; Derry City 8 wins, 12 draws, Dundalk 9 wins.
- An average of 3.0 goals per meeting between these teams.
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 60%.
- Out: Derry City 0, Dundalk 0.
Alternative tip: Over 2.5 goals
Alternative tip: Over 2.5 goals (probability 60%, best price 1.64). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Derry City: no absences. Absent for Dundalk: no absences. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Derry City vs Dundalk: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 1.92 | 4.00 | 4.50 |
| Market average | 1.70 | 3.92 | 4.30 |
| Lowest odds | 1.65 | 3.70 | 3.80 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.20 | 1.15 | 80.4% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.64 | 1.57 | 59.8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.40 | 2.33 | 40.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.57 | 2.39 | 38.8% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.57 | 1.56 | 59.2% |
| BTTS – no | 2.30 | 2.27 | 40.8% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 23/10/26, 18:00. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 7.7%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Derry City 1–1 Dundalk, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Derry City 5th (48 points), Dundalk 6th (45 points).
- H2H: 29 matches: Derry City 8W 12D 9L, goals 46–41.
- Absences: Derry City 0, Dundalk 0.
Who will win Derry City vs Dundalk?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Derry City vs Dundalk: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Derry City vs Dundalk: team news and absences
Derry City
- No reported absences
Dundalk
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Shamrock Rovers | 36 | 20-8-8 | 59:38 | 68 |
| 2 |  Bohemians | 36 | 19-8-9 | 63:44 | 65 |
| 3 |  St Patrick's Athletic | 36 | 17-9-10 | 55:31 | 60 |
| 4 |  Shelbourne | 36 | 12-13-11 | 52:50 | 49 |
| 5 | Derry City | 36 | 11-15-10 | 50:47 | 48 |
| 6 | Dundalk | 36 | 11-12-13 | 55:59 | 45 |
| 7 |  Waterford | 36 | 10-13-13 | 54:61 | 43 |
| 8 |  Galway United | 36 | 10-12-14 | 46:53 | 42 |
| 9 |  Drogheda United | 36 | 10-10-16 | 44:57 | 40 |
| 10 |  Sligo Rovers | 36 | 5-10-21 | 28:66 | 25 |
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Questions and answers
What do we tip for Derry City vs Dundalk?
Derry City -0.5 (Asian handicap) (1.93); Under 3.5 goals (1.54).
Who will win Derry City vs Dundalk?
We estimate: Derry City win 55%, draw 24%, Dundalk win 22%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 23 October 2026, kick-off: 19:45, venue: The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Derry. Referee: M. Lynch.
Who will be missing?
Derry City: no absences. Dundalk: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 60% (odds 1.64); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 40% (odds 2.40).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 59% (odds 1.57).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–1 as most likely (10.3%), then 2–1 (9.8%) and 1–0 (9.0%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
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