Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 1–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Derry City v St Patrick's Athletic: 19 October 2026 · 20:00 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium (Derry), with Aaron O'Dowd refereeing. We see little between the teams. Scroll down for the tip, the chances of each outcome, absences and our breakdown of the game.
Derry City vs St Patrick's Athletic: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Derry City are 5th in the table, on 48 points after 36 matches (11W 15D 10L), and St Patrick's Athletic are 3rd, on 60 points (17W 9D 10L).
- Head to head. From 32 meetings: 15 wins for Derry City, 7 wins for St Patrick's Athletic and 10 draws, with the goals at 39–25.
What to expect
We see an evenly matched game, with a 1–1 score estimate, roughly 2 goals in all, and 1–1 (12.5%) the most probable single result. Not much should separate the teams.
In the goals market we pick Under 2.5 goals (odds 1.83), and we rate it at 53%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 52% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 47% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 32; Derry City 15 wins, 10 draws, St Patrick's Athletic 7 wins.
- An average of 2.0 goals per meeting between these teams.
- Expected: roughly 2 goals; over 2.5 goals: 47%.
- Out: Derry City 0, St Patrick's Athletic 0.
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes (probability 52%, best price 1.80). With roughly 2 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Derry City: no absences. Absent for St Patrick's Athletic: no absences. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Derry City vs St Patrick's Athletic: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 3.60 | 3.38 | 2.17 |
| Market average | 3.38 | 3.23 | 2.09 |
| Lowest odds | 3.05 | 3.01 | 2.00 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.33 | 1.30 | 71.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.06 | 2.01 | 46.8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.83 | 1.76 | 53.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.75 | 3.49 | 26.6% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.80 | 1.77 | 52.2% |
| BTTS – no | 1.95 | 1.93 | 47.8% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 19/10/26, 18:00. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 8.5%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Derry City 1–1 St Patrick's Athletic, roughly 2 goals in total.
- Table: Derry City 5th (48 points), St Patrick's Athletic 3rd (60 points).
- H2H: 32 matches: Derry City 15W 10D 7L, goals 39–25.
- Absences: Derry City 0, St Patrick's Athletic 0.
Who will win Derry City vs St Patrick's Athletic?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Derry City vs St Patrick's Athletic: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Derry City vs St Patrick's Athletic: team news and absences
Derry City
- No reported absences
St Patrick's Athletic
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Shamrock Rovers | 36 | 20-8-8 | 59:38 | 68 |
| 2 |  Bohemians | 36 | 19-8-9 | 63:44 | 65 |
| 3 | St Patrick's Athletic | 36 | 17-9-10 | 55:31 | 60 |
| 4 |  Shelbourne | 36 | 12-13-11 | 52:50 | 49 |
| 5 | Derry City | 36 | 11-15-10 | 50:47 | 48 |
| 6 |  Dundalk | 36 | 11-12-13 | 55:59 | 45 |
| 7 |  Waterford | 36 | 10-13-13 | 54:61 | 43 |
| 8 |  Galway United | 36 | 10-12-14 | 46:53 | 42 |
| 9 |  Drogheda United | 36 | 10-10-16 | 44:57 | 40 |
| 10 |  Sligo Rovers | 36 | 5-10-21 | 28:66 | 25 |
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Questions and answers
What do we tip for Derry City vs St Patrick's Athletic?
Derry City or draw (1X) (1.75); Under 2.5 goals (1.83).
Who will win Derry City vs St Patrick's Athletic?
We estimate: Derry City win 27%, draw 29%, St Patrick's Athletic win 44%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 19 October 2026, kick-off: 20:00, venue: The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Derry. Referee: Aaron O'Dowd.
Who will be missing?
Derry City: no absences. St Patrick's Athletic: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 47% (odds 2.06); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 53% (odds 1.83).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 52% (odds 1.80).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–1 as most likely (12.5%), then 0–1 (11.3%) and 1–2 (9.0%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
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