Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 2–3. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
FC Nordsjælland play FC Midtjylland at home on 1 November 2026 · 15:00 at Right to Dream Park (Farum); the referee is Lasse Kirk Graagaard. For us, there is no clear favourite. Our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and a match analysis are below.
FC Nordsjælland vs FC Midtjylland: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. FC Nordsjælland are 5th in the table, on 20 points after 13 matches (5W 5D 3L), and FC Midtjylland are 1st, on 31 points (9W 4D 0L).
- Attack and defence. On average FC Nordsjælland score 1.5 goals a match in the competition and concede 1.2; for FC Midtjylland the figures are 2.0 scored and 1.1 conceded.
- Form in the competition. FC Nordsjælland: 5W 5D 2L, goals 18–14; FC Midtjylland: 8W 4D 0L, goals 24–13.
- Head to head. From 57 meetings: 17 wins for FC Nordsjælland, 27 wins for FC Midtjylland and 13 draws, with the goals at 78–111.
What to expect
We see an evenly matched game, with a 2–2 score estimate, roughly 4 goals in all, and 1–1 (10.4%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
What stands out is that the table favours the FC Midtjylland, whereas the betting market leans slightly towards the home side. When the indicators disagree like this, the match is difficult to read, and a more careful bet is the sensible choice.
In the goals market we pick Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.54), and we rate it at 62%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 65% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 62% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 57; FC Nordsjælland 17 wins, 13 draws, FC Midtjylland 27 wins.
- An average of 3.3 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: FC Nordsjælland 18–14, FC Midtjylland 24–13.
- Expected: roughly 4 goals; over 2.5 goals: 62%.
- Out: FC Nordsjælland 3, FC Midtjylland 7.
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals (probability 58%, best price 1.67). With roughly 4 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for FC Nordsjælland: S. Alio, A. Mohammed, V. Nelsson. Absent for FC Midtjylland: D. Castillo, M. Erlic, M. Gogorza, M. Jensen, Junior Brumado, E. Olafsson, P. Billing. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
FC Nordsjælland vs FC Midtjylland: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 2.35 | 3.85 | 2.90 |
| Market average | 2.28 | 3.69 | 2.78 |
| Lowest odds | 2.20 | 3.49 | 2.68 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.17 | 1.13 | 82.4% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.54 | 1.49 | 62.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.60 | 2.48 | 37.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.32 | 2.23 | 42.0% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.44 | 1.42 | 65.2% |
| BTTS – no | 2.75 | 2.66 | 34.8% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 1/11/26, 12:54. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 7.1%.
At a glance
- Likely result: FC Nordsjælland 1–1 FC Midtjylland, roughly 4 goals in total.
- Table: FC Nordsjælland 5th (20 points), FC Midtjylland 1st (31 points).
- Form in the competition: FC Nordsjælland 5W 5D 2L (18:14), FC Midtjylland 8W 4D 0L (24:13).
- H2H: 57 matches: FC Nordsjælland 17W 13D 27L, goals 78–111.
- Absences: FC Nordsjælland 3, FC Midtjylland 7.
Who will win FC Nordsjælland vs FC Midtjylland?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
FC Nordsjælland vs FC Midtjylland: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
FC Nordsjælland vs FC Midtjylland: team news and absences
FC Nordsjælland
- S. Alioknee injury · will miss the match
- A. Mohammedknee injury · will miss the match
- V. Nelssoninjury · doubtful
FC Midtjylland
- D. Castillonot in the squad · will miss the match
- M. Erlicfoot injury · will miss the match
- M. Gogorzahip injury · will miss the match
- M. Jensenfoot injury · will miss the match
- Junior Brumadoknee injury · will miss the match
- E. Olafssonillness · will miss the match
- P. Billinginjury · doubtful
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Midtjylland | 13 | 9-4-0 | 27:15 | 31 |
| 2 |  FC Copenhagen | 13 | 9-2-2 | 28:12 | 29 |
| 3 |  Viborg | 13 | 7-2-4 | 20:12 | 23 |
| 4 |  Brøndby | 13 | 7-1-5 | 23:20 | 22 |
| 5 | FC Nordsjælland | 13 | 5-5-3 | 20:17 | 20 |
| 6 |  Odense | 13 | 4-5-4 | 15:17 | 17 |
| 7 |  AC Horsens | 13 | 4-4-5 | 23:21 | 16 |
| 8 |  Aarhus | 13 | 2-6-5 | 17:21 | 12 |
| 9 |  Silkeborg | 13 | 2-6-5 | 17:24 | 12 |
| 10 |  Randers FC | 13 | 3-2-8 | 13:21 | 11 |
| 11 |  Lyngby | 13 | 2-5-6 | 19:28 | 11 |
| 12 |  Sønderjyske | 13 | 2-2-9 | 17:31 | 8 |
Recent matches
FC Nordsjælland
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
FC NordsjællandLDDDLFC MidtjyllandWWWWDHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for FC Nordsjælland vs FC Midtjylland?
Draw or FC Midtjylland (X2) (1.65); Over 2.5 goals (1.54).
Who will win FC Nordsjælland vs FC Midtjylland?
We estimate: FC Nordsjælland win 41%, draw 25%, FC Midtjylland win 34%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 1 November 2026, kick-off: 15:00, venue: Right to Dream Park, Farum. Referee: Lasse Kirk Graagaard.
Who will be missing?
FC Nordsjælland: S. Alio, A. Mohammed, V. Nelsson. FC Midtjylland: D. Castillo, M. Erlic, M. Gogorza, M. Jensen, Junior Brumado, E. Olafsson, P. Billing. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 62% (odds 1.54); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 38% (odds 2.60).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 65% (odds 1.44).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–1 as most likely (10.4%), then 2–1 (8.8%) and 1–2 (7.8%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.