Bet with Freshbet →Our tip for Finland vs San Marino (UEFA Nations League, 15 November 2026, 17:00): Finland to win at odds of 1.02. The bookmakers' odds give Finland 94%, the draw 4% and San Marino 2%. The most likely score is 4–0.
Finland vs San Marino betting prediction
Our pick for the night is a Finland win at odds 1.02, which the bookmakers translate into a 93 % chance of success.
At a glance
- Likely result: Finland 4–0 San Marino, roughly 5 goals in total.
- Table: Finland 3rd (7 points), San Marino 4th (0 points).
- Form in the competition: Finland 2W 1D 1L (9:2), San Marino 0W 0D 4L (1:16).
- H2H: 3 matches: Finland 3W 0D 0L, goals 15–1.
- Absences: Finland 0, San Marino 0.
Finland’s league standing and recent form
Finland currently occupy the third spot in their UEFA Nations League group, having amassed seven points across five games, comprising two victories, a single draw, and two setbacks, with a goal difference of nine scored and four conceded. At home in this tournament they remain unbeaten, recording a win and a draw, netting two goals and allowing only one.
Examining Finland’s recent form beyond the Nations League, the team’s past five matches in all events paint a varied picture. After a 7‑0 away thrashing of San Marino on 26 September 2026, they held Belarus to a goalless draw at home on 29 September. A 2‑1 victory on home turf against Albania on 3 October offered a short‑lived uplift before back‑to‑back away setbacks – a 1‑0 loss to Belarus on 6 October and a 2‑0 defeat to Albania on 12 November. Across those five fixtures Finland achieved two triumphs, one stalemate and two defeats, netting nine goals while allowing four. Only a single encounter saw both sides score, and the goal total surpassed 2.5 in two games. The Finns managed two clean sheets and were shut out on three occasions.
Standings and form
League C – Group A
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Albania | 5 | 4-0-1 | 10:3 | 12 |
| 2 |  Belarus | 5 | 3-1-1 | 7:2 | 10 |
| 3 |  Finland | 5 | 2-1-2 | 9:4 | 7 |
| 4 |  San Marino | 5 | 0-0-5 | 1:18 | 0 |
Recent matches
Finland
Home and away
Finland vs San Marino: last matches of both teams
Finland
San Marino
San Marino’s league position and form
San Marino occupy the last spot in their group, having failed to earn any points across five matches. Their total goal difference stands at –17, with just 1 goal scored against 18 conceded. In away games they have been beaten in both encounters, netting 1 goal while allowing 6.
The San Marinese form in their previous five fixtures has been consistently poor. Following a 0‑7 defeat to Finland on 26 September 2026, they suffered a 0‑3 loss to Albania three days later, then endured a 0‑4 setback in Belarus on 3 October. A close 1‑2 result against Albania on 6 October yielded their sole goal in this span, and a 0‑2 defeat to Belarus on 12 November rounded off the run. In these five games they have neither won nor drawn, have found the net only once, and have not kept a clean sheet.
Who will win Finland vs San Marino?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Finland vs San Marino: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 1.02 | 26.00 | 65.00 |
| Market average | 1.02 | 24.00 | 62.50 |
| Lowest odds | 1.02 | 22.00 | 60.00 |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 13/11/26, 16:11. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 3.8%.
Head‑to‑head dominance
Historically, the clashes between these teams have shown clear dominance. In the three latest fixtures Finland emerged victorious each time, netting a total of fifteen goals while allowing just a single one. The outcomes included a 6‑0 win on home turf on 19 June 2023, a 2‑1 success away on 20 November 2023, and the latest 7‑0 victory at home on 26 September 2026.
Finland vs San Marino: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Correct score prediction
Head to head
All matchesTeam news and absences
Each team seems to have a complete lineup – there are no missing players listed for Finland or San Marino.
Finland vs San Marino: team news and absences
Finland
- No reported absences
San Marino
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
FinlandLLWDWSan MarinoLLLLLWhat the market tells us
Finnish side is heavily favored, with an implied probability of 93 % (best odds 1.02). Draw carries a 5 % likelihood (odds 20.00) while a San Marino triumph is priced at just 2 % (odds 51.00). The total bookmaker overround for this market is 5.0 %.
Projected goal totals show Finland with four and San Marino with one, implying about five goals overall. The top probable precise results, based on the odds, are 4‑0 (10.7 % chance), 3‑0 (10.3 %) and 5‑0 (8.9 %). Viable victory margins for the hosts comprise 4‑0, 3‑0, 5‑0, 2‑0, 4‑1 and 3‑1.
Best bet for Finland vs San Marino: Finland to win
Our confidence in a Finnish victory rests on several clear points:
- San Marino have not secured a victory in their previous five games.
- Finland hold the third position with seven points, whereas San Marino are placed fourth, possessing no points.
- Finland remain unbeaten on their own turf, boasting one victory and a draw, while their defence has proven particularly sturdy at home.
- Finland have triumphed in the previous three clashes, netting fifteen times while San Marino managed only a single goal.
- Odds of 1.02 indicate a 93 % chance of Finland winning, according to the market.
Final thoughts
All indicators point the same way: Finland hold a higher league standing, remain unbeaten on their own turf, boast an immaculate recent record against San Marino, and enjoy a market confidence of 93 % in their victory. San Marino’s ongoing winless run, leaky defence and inability to find the net further underline the likelihood of a decisive Finnish triumph, probably ending 4‑0, 3‑0 or 5‑0.
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Match events
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Finland vs San Marino?
Finland to win (1.02).
Who will win Finland vs San Marino?
We estimate: Finland win 94%, draw 4%, San Marino win 2%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 15 November 2026, kick-off: 17:00, venue: Bolt Arena, Helsinki.
Who will be missing?
Finland: no absences. San Marino: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 4–0 as most likely (10.5%), then 3–0 (9.6%) and 5–0 (9.3%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
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