Bet with Freshbet →Our tip for Latvia vs Armenia (UEFA Nations League, 15 November 2026, 14:00): BTTS: no at odds of 2.02. Second tip: Draw or Armenia (X2) at odds of 1.42. The bookmakers' odds give Latvia 32%, the draw 28% and Armenia 40%. The most likely score is 1–1.
Latvia vs Armenia betting prediction
Our tip: Armenia to win at odds 2.02 (implied chance 40 %).
At a glance
- Likely result: Latvia 1–1 Armenia, roughly 2 goals in total.
- Table: Latvia 4th (1 point), Armenia 3rd (5 points).
- Form in the competition: Latvia 0W 1D 4L (3:8), Armenia 1W 2D 2L (5:6).
- H2H: 5 matches: Latvia 1W 0D 4L, goals 5–10.
- Absences: Latvia 0, Armenia 0.
League positions and recent form
In the UEFA Nations League Latvia are positioned fourth in their group with a single point from five matches (0‑1‑4). They have scored three goals and have conceded eight, giving them a goal‑difference of ‑5. Their home record in the competition is modest: one draw, one loss, one goal scored and two conceded. This reflects a broader struggle in recent fixtures across all competitions.
Latvia’s last five matches illustrate the difficulty they have faced. On 25 September 2026 they travelled to Armenia and were beaten 2‑0. A week later, on 28 September 2026, they hosted Cyprus and managed a 0‑0 draw, the only clean sheet in this sequence. Their next game on 2 October 2026 saw them host Montenegro and lose 1‑2, conceding twice at home. The following fixture on 5 October 2026 was an away trip to Cyprus where Latvia fell 2‑1, and most recently on 12 November 2026 they travelled to Montenegro and were again defeated 2‑1. Across these five games Latvia recorded zero wins, one draw and four defeats, scoring three goals while conceding eight. Both teams found the net in three of the matches, and the total goal count exceeded 2.5 in three encounters. Latvia kept a clean sheet once and failed to score in two games.
Armenia sit in third place with five points from five matches (1‑2‑2). They have scored five goals and let in six, a goal‑difference of ‑1. Their away record in the competition shows no victories: one draw and one loss, with no goals scored away from home.
Armenia’s recent form also tells a similar story of mixed results. They opened the five‑match run on 25 September 2026 with a 2‑0 home win over Latvia. On 28 September 2026 they hosted Montenegro and were beaten 2‑3, a high‑scoring loss. Their next game on 2 October 2026 was an away fixture against Cyprus where they lost 0‑2, failing to find the net. On 5 October 2026 they travelled to Montenegro and salvaged a 0‑0 draw, keeping a clean sheet. The most recent match on 12 November 2026 was at home against Cyprus and ended 1‑1. In this five‑match window Armenia recorded one win, two draws and two defeats, scoring five goals while conceding six. Both sides scored in two matches, and the total exceeded 2.5 goals only once. Armenia kept a clean sheet in two games and failed to score in two matches.
Standings and form
League C – Group B
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Montenegro | 5 | 4-1-0 | 9:5 | 13 |
| 2 |  Cyprus | 5 | 2-2-1 | 6:4 | 8 |
| 3 |  Armenia | 5 | 1-2-2 | 5:6 | 5 |
| 4 |  Latvia | 5 | 0-1-4 | 3:8 | 1 |
Recent matches
Latvia
Home and away
Latvia vs Armenia: last matches of both teams
Latvia
Armenia
Head‑to‑head dominance
The historical record between the two sides heavily favours Armenia. In the last five meetings Armenia have won four times and Latvia only once, producing an aggregate score of 10‑5 to the Armenians. The most recent clash on 25 September 2026 saw Armenia host Latvia and win 2‑0, reinforcing the recent trend.
Looking back at each encounter:
- 25 September 2026 – Armenia 2‑0 Latvia (Armenian win at home).
- 17 November 2024 – Latvia 1‑2 Armenia (Armenian win away).
- 7 September 2024 – Armenia 4‑1 Latvia (Armenian win at home).
- 12 October 2023 – Latvia 2‑0 Armenia (Latvian win at home).
- 19 June 2023 – Armenia 2‑1 Latvia (Armenian win at home).
These results show that Armenia have secured victories both at home and away, while Latvia’s sole recent success came at home in October 2023.
Head to head
All matchesLatvia vs Armenia: team news and absences
Latvia
- No reported absences
Armenia
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Market expectations
Bookmakers have priced the three possible outcomes as follows: a Latvian win carries odds of 2.94, implying a 32 % chance; a draw is priced at 3.38, implying a 28 % chance; and an Armenian win is priced at 2.02, implying a 40 % chance. The combined implied probabilities produce a bookmaker margin of 5.4 % on the match‑result market.
Statistical models round the expected goals for each side to one, suggesting a total of roughly two goals in the match. The most likely exact scorelines, based on these models, are:
- 1‑1 – 13.1 % probability.
- 0‑1 – 11.9 % probability.
- 1‑0 – 10.5 % probability.
These percentages indicate that low‑scoring outcomes dominate the expectations, with a slight edge to an away win for Armenia.
Who will win Latvia vs Armenia?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Latvia vs Armenia: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 3.05 | 3.45 | 2.49 |
| Market average | 2.96 | 3.31 | 2.36 |
| Lowest odds | 2.80 | 3.10 | 2.30 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.47 | 1.39 | 67.5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.52 | 2.21 | 43.8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.83 | 1.71 | 56.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 5.04 | 4.10 | 24.2% |
| BTTS – yes | 2.10 | 1.97 | 47.8% |
| BTTS – no | 2.02 | 1.80 | 52.2% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 13/11/26, 16:11. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 6.5%.
Armenia to win – main tip
We back Armenia to take all three points at Skonto. The following points support this view:
- Latvia have not won any of their last five matches across all competitions.
- Armenia sit higher in the group table with five points, while Latvia have managed only a single point.
- In head‑to‑head meetings over the last five games, Armenia have emerged victorious four times, compared with Latvia’s single win.
- The betting market assigns Armenia a 40 % implied probability at odds 2.02, the highest among the three outcomes.
The tip settles as a win for Armenia on the following scorelines: 0‑1, 1‑2 or 0‑2. Any other result – a 1‑1 draw, a 1‑0 win for Latvia, a 0‑0 draw or a 1‑1 draw – would result in a lost stake.
Latvia vs Armenia: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Correct score prediction
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
LatviaLLLDLArmeniaDDLLWReturns calculator
Match events
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Latvia vs Armenia?
BTTS: no (2.02); Draw or Armenia (X2) (1.42).
Who will win Latvia vs Armenia?
We estimate: Latvia win 32%, draw 28%, Armenia win 40%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 15 November 2026, kick-off: 14:00, venue: Skonto, Riga.
Who will be missing?
Latvia: no absences. Armenia: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 44% (odds 2.52); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 56% (odds 1.83).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 48% (odds 2.10).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–1 as most likely (12.9%), then 0–1 (11.2%) and 1–0 (9.9%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.