Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 3–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Middlesbrough play Charlton at home on 31 October 2026 · 15:00 at Riverside Stadium (Middlesbrough); the referee is Will Finnie. For us, Middlesbrough (76%) are favourites. Our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and a match analysis are below.
Middlesbrough vs Charlton: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Middlesbrough are 1st in the table, on 28 points after 14 matches (8W 4D 2L), and Charlton are 21st, on 14 points (3W 5D 6L).
- Attack and defence. On average Middlesbrough score 2.3 goals a match in the competition and concede 1.4; for Charlton the figures are 0.9 scored and 1.5 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Middlesbrough: 7W 4D 1L, goals 27–17; Charlton: 3W 5D 4L, goals 11–18.
- Head to head. From 13 meetings: 9 wins for Middlesbrough, 2 wins for Charlton and 2 draws, with the goals at 21–8.
What to expect
For us, Middlesbrough are the more likely winners. We estimate a 3–1 score, roughly 4 goals in all, with 2–0 (10.6%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
Odds of 1.26 on the result do not offer much, so it is worth turning to the goals markets: Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.85), which we rate at 53%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 52% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 68% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 13; Middlesbrough 9 wins, 2 draws, Charlton 2 wins.
- An average of 2.2 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: Middlesbrough 27–17, Charlton 11–18.
- Expected: roughly 4 goals; over 2.5 goals: 68%.
- Out: Middlesbrough 3, Charlton 4.
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes (probability 52%, best price 1.87). With roughly 4 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Middlesbrough: A. Jones, R. Pukstas, D. Strelec. Absent for Charlton: R. Apter, C. Sichenje, N. Chalobah, M. Godden. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Middlesbrough vs Charlton: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 1.26 | 6.80 | 11.50 |
| Market average | 1.23 | 6.31 | 10.43 |
| Lowest odds | 1.20 | 5.32 | 7.53 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.13 | 1.09 | 85.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.42 | 1.37 | 67.8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.00 | 2.90 | 32.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.11 | 1.99 | 47.4% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.87 | 1.79 | 51.8% |
| BTTS – no | 1.97 | 1.93 | 48.2% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 31/10/26, 13:40. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 6.8%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Middlesbrough 2–0 Charlton, roughly 4 goals in total.
- Table: Middlesbrough 1st (28 points), Charlton 21st (14 points).
- Form in the competition: Middlesbrough 7W 4D 1L (27:17), Charlton 3W 5D 4L (11:18).
- H2H: 13 matches: Middlesbrough 9W 2D 2L, goals 21–8.
- Absences: Middlesbrough 3, Charlton 4.
Who will win Middlesbrough vs Charlton?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Middlesbrough vs Charlton: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Middlesbrough vs Charlton: team news and absences
Middlesbrough
- A. Jonescalf injury · will miss the match
- R. Pukstasinjury · doubtful
- D. Strelecinjury · doubtful
Charlton
- R. Apterknee injury · will miss the match
- C. Sichenjeknee injury · will miss the match
- N. Chalobahmuscle injury · doubtful
- M. Goddenmuscle injury · doubtful
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Middlesbrough | 14 | 8-4-2 | 30:19 | 28 |
| 2 |  Wolves | 14 | 8-3-3 | 25:17 | 27 |
| 3 |  Birmingham | 14 | 7-5-2 | 26:13 | 26 |
| 4 |  Stoke City | 14 | 8-2-4 | 22:17 | 26 |
| 5 |  Swansea | 14 | 8-2-4 | 21:16 | 26 |
| 6 |  West Brom | 14 | 7-4-3 | 20:15 | 25 |
| 7 |  Southampton | 14 | 8-4-2 | 29:14 | 24 |
| 8 |  West Ham | 14 | 6-5-3 | 36:21 | 23 |
| 9 |  Sheffield United | 14 | 6-4-4 | 20:17 | 22 |
| 10 |  Portsmouth | 14 | 6-4-4 | 19:16 | 22 |
| 11 |  QPR | 14 | 5-6-3 | 22:17 | 21 |
| 12 |  Norwich | 14 | 6-0-8 | 27:24 | 18 |
| 13 |  Millwall | 14 | 5-3-6 | 23:24 | 18 |
| 14 |  Blackburn | 14 | 5-3-6 | 20:22 | 18 |
| 15 |  Bristol City | 14 | 5-3-6 | 16:19 | 18 |
| 16 |  Wrexham | 14 | 4-5-5 | 17:19 | 17 |
| 17 |  Bolton | 14 | 5-2-7 | 19:26 | 17 |
| 18 |  Cardiff | 14 | 3-6-5 | 22:23 | 15 |
| 19 |  Lincoln | 14 | 4-3-7 | 14:24 | 15 |
| 20 |  Watford | 14 | 4-2-8 | 13:23 | 14 |
| 21 | Charlton | 14 | 3-5-6 | 11:22 | 14 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 14 | 1-7-6 | 18:26 | 10 |
| 23 |  Derby | 14 | 1-4-9 | 11:29 | 7 |
| 24 |  Preston | 14 | 1-2-11 | 12:30 | 5 |
Recent matches
Middlesbrough
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
MiddlesbroughLWWDWCharltonLLLLDHead to head
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Questions and answers
What do we tip for Middlesbrough vs Charlton?
Middlesbrough -1.75 (Asian handicap) (1.88); Under 3.5 goals (1.85).
Who will win Middlesbrough vs Charlton?
We estimate: Middlesbrough win 76%, draw 15%, Charlton win 9%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 31 October 2026, kick-off: 15:00, venue: Riverside Stadium, Middlesbrough. Referee: Will Finnie.
Who will be missing?
Middlesbrough: A. Jones, R. Pukstas, D. Strelec. Charlton: R. Apter, C. Sichenje, N. Chalobah, M. Godden. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 68% (odds 1.42); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 32% (odds 3.00).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 52% (odds 1.87).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 2–0 as most likely (10.6%), then 3–0 (9.4%) and 2–1 (9.0%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
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