Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 2–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Wrexham play Middlesbrough at home on 4 November 2026 · 19:45 at Racecourse Ground (Wrexham); the referee is Oliver Langford. For us, Middlesbrough (56%) are favourites. Our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and a match analysis are below.
Wrexham vs Middlesbrough: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Wrexham are 16th in the table, on 17 points after 14 matches (4W 5D 5L), and Middlesbrough are 1st, on 28 points (8W 4D 2L).
- Attack and defence. On average Wrexham score 1.2 goals a match in the competition and concede 1.5; for Middlesbrough the figures are 2.3 scored and 1.3 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Wrexham: 3W 5D 5L, goals 15–19; Middlesbrough: 8W 4D 1L, goals 30–17.
- Head to head. From 3 meetings: 0 wins for Wrexham, 1 win for Middlesbrough and 2 draws, with the goals at 3–4.
What to expect
For us, Middlesbrough are the more likely winners. We estimate a 1–2 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 1–1 (10.2%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
In the goals market we pick Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.55), and we rate it at 62%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 59% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 59% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 3; Wrexham 0 wins, 2 draws, Middlesbrough 1 win.
- An average of 2.3 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: Wrexham 15–19, Middlesbrough 30–17.
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 59%.
- Out: Wrexham 4, Middlesbrough 2.
Alternative tip: Over 2.5 goals
Alternative tip: Over 2.5 goals (probability 59%, best price 1.65). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Wrexham: N. Broadhead, L. Cacace, J. Windass, S. Revan. Absent for Middlesbrough: A. Jones, R. Pukstas. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Wrexham vs Middlesbrough: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 5.00 | 4.27 | 1.71 |
| Market average | 4.59 | 4.05 | 1.68 |
| Lowest odds | 4.22 | 3.76 | 1.65 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.21 | 1.17 | 79.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.65 | 1.60 | 59.2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.35 | 2.31 | 40.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.63 | 2.45 | 38.2% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.62 | 1.59 | 58.5% |
| BTTS – no | 2.30 | 2.25 | 41.5% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 4/11/26, 18:00. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 6.2%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Wrexham 1–1 Middlesbrough, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Wrexham 16th (17 points), Middlesbrough 1st (28 points).
- Form in the competition: Wrexham 3W 5D 5L (15:19), Middlesbrough 8W 4D 1L (30:17).
- H2H: 3 matches: Wrexham 0W 2D 1L, goals 3–4.
- Absences: Wrexham 4, Middlesbrough 2.
Who will win Wrexham vs Middlesbrough?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Wrexham vs Middlesbrough: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Wrexham vs Middlesbrough: team news and absences
Wrexham
- N. Broadheadthigh injury · will miss the match
- L. Cacacecalf injury · will miss the match
- J. Windassankle injury · will miss the match
- S. Revanhamstring injury · doubtful
Middlesbrough
- A. Jonescalf injury · will miss the match
- R. Pukstasinjury · doubtful
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Middlesbrough | 14 | 8-4-2 | 30:19 | 28 |
| 2 |  Wolves | 14 | 8-3-3 | 25:17 | 27 |
| 3 |  Birmingham | 14 | 7-5-2 | 26:13 | 26 |
| 4 |  Stoke City | 14 | 8-2-4 | 22:17 | 26 |
| 5 |  Swansea | 14 | 8-2-4 | 21:16 | 26 |
| 6 |  West Brom | 14 | 7-4-3 | 20:15 | 25 |
| 7 |  Southampton | 14 | 8-4-2 | 29:14 | 24 |
| 8 |  West Ham | 14 | 6-5-3 | 36:21 | 23 |
| 9 |  Sheffield United | 14 | 6-4-4 | 20:17 | 22 |
| 10 |  Portsmouth | 14 | 6-4-4 | 19:16 | 22 |
| 11 |  QPR | 14 | 5-6-3 | 22:17 | 21 |
| 12 |  Norwich | 14 | 6-0-8 | 27:24 | 18 |
| 13 |  Millwall | 14 | 5-3-6 | 23:24 | 18 |
| 14 |  Blackburn | 14 | 5-3-6 | 20:22 | 18 |
| 15 |  Bristol City | 14 | 5-3-6 | 16:19 | 18 |
| 16 | Wrexham | 14 | 4-5-5 | 17:19 | 17 |
| 17 |  Bolton | 14 | 5-2-7 | 19:26 | 17 |
| 18 |  Cardiff | 14 | 3-6-5 | 22:23 | 15 |
| 19 |  Lincoln | 14 | 4-3-7 | 14:24 | 15 |
| 20 |  Watford | 14 | 4-2-8 | 13:23 | 14 |
| 21 |  Charlton | 14 | 3-5-6 | 11:22 | 14 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 14 | 1-7-6 | 18:26 | 10 |
| 23 |  Derby | 14 | 1-4-9 | 11:29 | 7 |
| 24 |  Preston | 14 | 1-2-11 | 12:30 | 5 |
Recent matches
Wrexham
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
WrexhamWLLWLMiddlesbroughLWWDWHead to head
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Questions and answers
What do we tip for Wrexham vs Middlesbrough?
Wrexham +1 (Asian handicap) (1.78); Under 3.5 goals (1.55).
Who will win Wrexham vs Middlesbrough?
We estimate: Wrexham win 21%, draw 23%, Middlesbrough win 56%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 4 November 2026, kick-off: 19:45, venue: Racecourse Ground, Wrexham. Referee: Oliver Langford.
Who will be missing?
Wrexham: N. Broadhead, L. Cacace, J. Windass, S. Revan. Middlesbrough: A. Jones, R. Pukstas. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 59% (odds 1.65); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 41% (odds 2.35).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 59% (odds 1.62).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–1 as most likely (10.2%), then 1–2 (9.9%) and 0–1 (9.2%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
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