Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 1–5. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
It is Bolton against Middlesbrough on 23 October 2026 · 20:00 at Toughsheet Community Stadium (Horwich), and Simon Hooper, England will referee. Middlesbrough (58%) start as favourites in our view. Below you can read our tip, the result probabilities, team news and analysis.
Bolton vs Middlesbrough: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Bolton are 17th in the table, on 17 points after 14 matches (5W 2D 7L), and Middlesbrough are 1st, on 28 points (8W 4D 2L).
- Attack and defence. On average Bolton score 1.4 goals a match in the competition and concede 1.6; for Middlesbrough the figures are 2.0 scored and 1.5 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Bolton: 4W 2D 5L, goals 15–18; Middlesbrough: 6W 4D 1L, goals 22–16.
- Head to head. From 15 meetings: 1 win for Bolton, 13 wins for Middlesbrough and 1 draw, with the goals at 9–34.
What to expect
For us, Middlesbrough are the more likely winners. We estimate a 1–2 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 1–2 (9.7%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
In the goals market we pick Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.56), and we rate it at 65%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 63% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 65% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 15; Bolton 1 win, 1 draw, Middlesbrough 13 wins.
- An average of 2.9 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: Bolton 15–18, Middlesbrough 22–16.
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 65%.
- Out: Bolton 2, Middlesbrough 3.
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes (probability 63%, best price 1.50). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Bolton: J. Nelson, C. Forino-Joseph. Absent for Middlesbrough: A. Jones, R. Pukstas, D. Strelec. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Bolton vs Middlesbrough: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 5.00 | 4.60 | 1.66 |
| Market average | 4.70 | 4.38 | 1.62 |
| Lowest odds | 4.50 | 4.20 | 1.57 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.17 | 1.12 | 83.4% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.56 | 1.44 | 64.8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.80 | 2.66 | 35.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.42 | 2.13 | 44.5% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.50 | 1.48 | 62.8% |
| BTTS – no | 2.63 | 2.50 | 37.2% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 23/10/26, 18:00. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 5.9%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Bolton 1–2 Middlesbrough, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Bolton 17th (17 points), Middlesbrough 1st (28 points).
- Form in the competition: Bolton 4W 2D 5L (15:18), Middlesbrough 6W 4D 1L (22:16).
- H2H: 15 matches: Bolton 1W 1D 13L, goals 9–34.
- Absences: Bolton 2, Middlesbrough 3.
Who will win Bolton vs Middlesbrough?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Bolton vs Middlesbrough: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Bolton vs Middlesbrough: team news and absences
Bolton
- J. Nelsonnot in the squad · will miss the match
- C. Forino-Josephgroin injury · doubtful
Middlesbrough
- A. Jonescalf injury · will miss the match
- R. Pukstasinjury · will miss the match
- D. Strelecinjury · will miss the match
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Middlesbrough | 14 | 8-4-2 | 30:19 | 28 |
| 2 |  Wolves | 14 | 8-3-3 | 25:17 | 27 |
| 3 |  Birmingham | 14 | 7-5-2 | 26:13 | 26 |
| 4 |  Stoke City | 14 | 8-2-4 | 22:17 | 26 |
| 5 |  Swansea | 14 | 8-2-4 | 21:16 | 26 |
| 6 |  West Brom | 14 | 7-4-3 | 20:15 | 25 |
| 7 |  Southampton | 14 | 8-4-2 | 29:14 | 24 |
| 8 |  West Ham | 14 | 6-5-3 | 36:21 | 23 |
| 9 |  Sheffield United | 14 | 6-4-4 | 20:17 | 22 |
| 10 |  Portsmouth | 14 | 6-4-4 | 19:16 | 22 |
| 11 |  QPR | 14 | 5-6-3 | 22:17 | 21 |
| 12 |  Norwich | 14 | 6-0-8 | 27:24 | 18 |
| 13 |  Millwall | 14 | 5-3-6 | 23:24 | 18 |
| 14 |  Blackburn | 14 | 5-3-6 | 20:22 | 18 |
| 15 |  Bristol City | 14 | 5-3-6 | 16:19 | 18 |
| 16 |  Wrexham | 14 | 4-5-5 | 17:19 | 17 |
| 17 | Bolton | 14 | 5-2-7 | 19:26 | 17 |
| 18 |  Cardiff | 14 | 3-6-5 | 22:23 | 15 |
| 19 |  Lincoln | 14 | 4-3-7 | 14:24 | 15 |
| 20 |  Watford | 14 | 4-2-8 | 13:23 | 14 |
| 21 |  Charlton | 14 | 3-5-6 | 11:22 | 14 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 14 | 1-7-6 | 18:26 | 10 |
| 23 |  Derby | 14 | 1-4-9 | 11:29 | 7 |
| 24 |  Preston | 14 | 1-2-11 | 12:30 | 5 |
Recent matches
Bolton
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
BoltonWLLDWMiddlesbroughLWWDWHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Bolton vs Middlesbrough?
Over 2.5 goals (1.56); Middlesbrough to win (1.66).
Who will win Bolton vs Middlesbrough?
We estimate: Bolton win 20%, draw 22%, Middlesbrough win 58%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 23 October 2026, kick-off: 20:00, venue: Toughsheet Community Stadium, Horwich. Referee: Simon Hooper, England.
Who will be missing?
Bolton: J. Nelson, C. Forino-Joseph. Middlesbrough: A. Jones, R. Pukstas, D. Strelec. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 65% (odds 1.56); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 35% (odds 2.80).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 63% (odds 1.50).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–2 as most likely (9.7%), then 1–1 (9.1%) and 0–2 (8.1%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.