Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 3–2. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Norwich v Watford: 31 October 2026 · 12:30 at Carrow Road (Norwich), with Ben Speedie refereeing. We have Norwich (64%) down as favourites. Scroll down for the tip, the chances of each outcome, absences and our breakdown of the game.
Norwich vs Watford: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Norwich are 12th in the table, on 18 points after 14 matches (6W 0D 8L), and Watford are 20th, on 14 points (4W 2D 8L).
- Attack and defence. On average Norwich score 1.7 goals a match in the competition and concede 1.8; for Watford the figures are 0.8 scored and 1.7 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Norwich: 4W 0D 8L, goals 20–22; Watford: 3W 2D 7L, goals 10–20.
- Head to head. From 21 meetings: 10 wins for Norwich, 11 wins for Watford and 0 draws, with the goals at 37–31.
What to expect
For us, Norwich are the more likely winners. We estimate a 2–1 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 2–1 (9.9%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
In the goals market we pick Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.57), and we rate it at 61%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 56% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 61% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 21; Norwich 10 wins, 0 draws, Watford 11 wins.
- An average of 3.2 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: Norwich 20–22, Watford 10–20.
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 61%.
- Out: Norwich 6, Watford 5.
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals (probability 60%, best price 1.60). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Norwich: A. Ahmed, P. A. Diallo, G. Forsyth, M. Toure, P. Mattsson, M. Topic. Absent for Watford: M. Antonio, K. Baah, E. Bove, S. Coulibaly, J. Ngakia. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Norwich vs Watford: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 1.52 | 4.80 | 6.68 |
| Market average | 1.47 | 4.52 | 6.05 |
| Lowest odds | 1.44 | 3.92 | 4.81 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.19 | 1.15 | 81.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.57 | 1.53 | 60.9% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.51 | 2.39 | 39.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.43 | 2.36 | 40.0% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.70 | 1.66 | 56.1% |
| BTTS – no | 2.20 | 2.12 | 43.9% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 31/10/26, 09:42. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 6.9%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Norwich 2–1 Watford, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Norwich 12th (18 points), Watford 20th (14 points).
- Form in the competition: Norwich 4W 0D 8L (20:22), Watford 3W 2D 7L (10:20).
- H2H: 21 matches: Norwich 10W 0D 11L, goals 37–31.
- Absences: Norwich 6, Watford 5.
Who will win Norwich vs Watford?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Norwich vs Watford: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Norwich vs Watford: team news and absences
Norwich
- A. Ahmedknee injury · will miss the match
- P. A. Dialloinjury · will miss the match
- G. Forsythabsence · will miss the match
- M. Toureshoulder injury · will miss the match
- P. Mattssonabsence · doubtful
- M. Topicabsence · doubtful
Watford
- M. Antonionot in the squad · will miss the match
- K. Baahknock · will miss the match
- E. Boveknee injury · will miss the match
- S. Coulibalyhamstring injury · will miss the match
- J. Ngakiathigh injury · will miss the match
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 14 | 8-4-2 | 30:19 | 28 |
| 2 |  Wolves | 14 | 8-3-3 | 25:17 | 27 |
| 3 |  Birmingham | 14 | 7-5-2 | 26:13 | 26 |
| 4 |  Stoke City | 14 | 8-2-4 | 22:17 | 26 |
| 5 |  Swansea | 14 | 8-2-4 | 21:16 | 26 |
| 6 |  West Brom | 14 | 7-4-3 | 20:15 | 25 |
| 7 |  Southampton | 14 | 8-4-2 | 29:14 | 24 |
| 8 |  West Ham | 14 | 6-5-3 | 36:21 | 23 |
| 9 |  Sheffield United | 14 | 6-4-4 | 20:17 | 22 |
| 10 |  Portsmouth | 14 | 6-4-4 | 19:16 | 22 |
| 11 |  QPR | 14 | 5-6-3 | 22:17 | 21 |
| 12 | Norwich | 14 | 6-0-8 | 27:24 | 18 |
| 13 |  Millwall | 14 | 5-3-6 | 23:24 | 18 |
| 14 |  Blackburn | 14 | 5-3-6 | 20:22 | 18 |
| 15 |  Bristol City | 14 | 5-3-6 | 16:19 | 18 |
| 16 |  Wrexham | 14 | 4-5-5 | 17:19 | 17 |
| 17 |  Bolton | 14 | 5-2-7 | 19:26 | 17 |
| 18 |  Cardiff | 14 | 3-6-5 | 22:23 | 15 |
| 19 |  Lincoln | 14 | 4-3-7 | 14:24 | 15 |
| 20 | Watford | 14 | 4-2-8 | 13:23 | 14 |
| 21 |  Charlton | 14 | 3-5-6 | 11:22 | 14 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 14 | 1-7-6 | 18:26 | 10 |
| 23 |  Derby | 14 | 1-4-9 | 11:29 | 7 |
| 24 |  Preston | 14 | 1-2-11 | 12:30 | 5 |
Recent matches
Norwich
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
NorwichWWWLLWatfordWLLWLHead to head
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Questions and answers
What do we tip for Norwich vs Watford?
Norwich -1 (Asian handicap) (1.94); Over 2.5 goals (1.57).
Who will win Norwich vs Watford?
We estimate: Norwich win 64%, draw 21%, Watford win 16%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 31 October 2026, kick-off: 12:30, venue: Carrow Road, Norwich. Referee: Ben Speedie.
Who will be missing?
Norwich: A. Ahmed, P. A. Diallo, G. Forsyth, M. Toure, P. Mattsson, M. Topic. Watford: M. Antonio, K. Baah, E. Bove, S. Coulibaly, J. Ngakia. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 61% (odds 1.57); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 39% (odds 2.51).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 56% (odds 1.70).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 2–1 as most likely (9.9%), then 2–0 (9.9%) and 1–1 (9.2%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.