Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 1–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Wolves play Watford at home on 24 October 2026 · 15:00 at Molineux Stadium (Wolverhampton); the referee is Robert Madley, England. For us, Wolves (66%) are favourites. Our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and a match analysis are below.
Wolves vs Watford: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Wolves are 2nd in the table, on 27 points after 14 matches (8W 3D 3L), and Watford are 20th, on 14 points (4W 2D 8L).
- Attack and defence. On average Wolves score 1.7 goals a match in the competition and concede 1.5; for Watford the figures are 0.9 scored and 1.7 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Wolves: 5W 3D 3L, goals 19–16; Watford: 3W 2D 6L, goals 10–19.
- Head to head. From 12 meetings: 6 wins for Wolves, 4 wins for Watford and 2 draws, with the goals at 19–13.
What to expect
For us, Wolves are the more likely winners. We estimate a 2–1 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 2–0 (10.9%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
In the goals market we pick Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.55), and we rate it at 63%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 52% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 59% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 12; Wolves 6 wins, 2 draws, Watford 4 wins.
- An average of 2.7 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: Wolves 19–16, Watford 10–19.
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 59%.
- Out: Wolves 5, Watford 5.
Alternative tip: Over 2.5 goals
Alternative tip: Over 2.5 goals (probability 59%, best price 1.67). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Wolves: R. Gomes, R. Jimenez, B. Traore, B. Traore, A. Armstrong. Absent for Watford: K. Baah, E. Bove, J. Ngakia, T. Akomeah, M. Antonio. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Wolves vs Watford: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 1.47 | 4.90 | 7.00 |
| Market average | 1.43 | 4.63 | 6.76 |
| Lowest odds | 1.40 | 4.33 | 6.00 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.22 | 1.17 | 79.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.67 | 1.61 | 58.6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.38 | 2.28 | 41.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.65 | 2.51 | 37.3% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.83 | 1.78 | 52.3% |
| BTTS – no | 2.10 | 1.95 | 47.7% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 24/10/26, 13:58. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 6.3%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Wolves 2–0 Watford, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Wolves 2nd (27 points), Watford 20th (14 points).
- Form in the competition: Wolves 5W 3D 3L (19:16), Watford 3W 2D 6L (10:19).
- H2H: 12 matches: Wolves 6W 2D 4L, goals 19–13.
- Absences: Wolves 5, Watford 5.
Who will win Wolves vs Watford?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Wolves vs Watford: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Wolves vs Watford: team news and absences
Wolves
- R. Gomesfoot injury · will miss the match
- R. Jimenezknee injury · will miss the match
- B. Traoreinjury · will miss the match
- B. Traoreinjury · will miss the match
- A. Armstrongback injury · doubtful
Watford
- K. Baahknock · will miss the match
- E. Boveknee injury · will miss the match
- J. Ngakiathigh injury · will miss the match
- T. Akomeahabsence · doubtful
- M. Antonionot in the squad · doubtful
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 14 | 8-4-2 | 30:19 | 28 |
| 2 | Wolves | 14 | 8-3-3 | 25:17 | 27 |
| 3 |  Birmingham | 14 | 7-5-2 | 26:13 | 26 |
| 4 |  Stoke City | 14 | 8-2-4 | 22:17 | 26 |
| 5 |  Swansea | 14 | 8-2-4 | 21:16 | 26 |
| 6 |  West Brom | 14 | 7-4-3 | 20:15 | 25 |
| 7 |  Southampton | 14 | 8-4-2 | 29:14 | 24 |
| 8 |  West Ham | 14 | 6-5-3 | 36:21 | 23 |
| 9 |  Sheffield United | 14 | 6-4-4 | 20:17 | 22 |
| 10 |  Portsmouth | 14 | 6-4-4 | 19:16 | 22 |
| 11 |  QPR | 14 | 5-6-3 | 22:17 | 21 |
| 12 |  Norwich | 14 | 6-0-8 | 27:24 | 18 |
| 13 |  Millwall | 14 | 5-3-6 | 23:24 | 18 |
| 14 |  Blackburn | 14 | 5-3-6 | 20:22 | 18 |
| 15 |  Bristol City | 14 | 5-3-6 | 16:19 | 18 |
| 16 |  Wrexham | 14 | 4-5-5 | 17:19 | 17 |
| 17 |  Bolton | 14 | 5-2-7 | 19:26 | 17 |
| 18 |  Cardiff | 14 | 3-6-5 | 22:23 | 15 |
| 19 |  Lincoln | 14 | 4-3-7 | 14:24 | 15 |
| 20 | Watford | 14 | 4-2-8 | 13:23 | 14 |
| 21 |  Charlton | 14 | 3-5-6 | 11:22 | 14 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 14 | 1-7-6 | 18:26 | 10 |
| 23 |  Derby | 14 | 1-4-9 | 11:29 | 7 |
| 24 |  Preston | 14 | 1-2-11 | 12:30 | 5 |
Recent matches
Wolves
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
WolvesWWWDWWatfordWLLWLHead to head
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Questions and answers
What do we tip for Wolves vs Watford?
Wolves -1 (Asian handicap) (1.75); Under 3.5 goals (1.55).
Who will win Wolves vs Watford?
We estimate: Wolves win 66%, draw 20%, Watford win 14%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 24 October 2026, kick-off: 15:00, venue: Molineux Stadium, Wolverhampton. Referee: Robert Madley, England.
Who will be missing?
Wolves: R. Gomes, R. Jimenez, B. Traore, B. Traore, A. Armstrong. Watford: K. Baah, E. Bove, J. Ngakia, T. Akomeah, M. Antonio. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 59% (odds 1.67); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 41% (odds 2.38).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 52% (odds 1.83).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 2–0 as most likely (10.9%), then 1–0 (10.2%) and 2–1 (9.9%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
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