Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 0–4. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Derby play Norwich at home on 3 November 2026 · 19:45 at Pride Park Stadium (Derby); the referee is Sam Allison. For us, there is no clear favourite. Our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and a match analysis are below.
Derby vs Norwich: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Derby are 23rd in the table, on 7 points after 14 matches (1W 4D 9L), and Norwich are 12th, on 18 points (6W 0D 8L).
- Attack and defence. On average Derby score 0.8 goals a match in the competition and concede 1.9; for Norwich the figures are 1.8 scored and 1.8 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Derby: 1W 4D 8L, goals 11–25; Norwich: 5W 0D 8L, goals 23–24.
- Head to head. From 14 meetings: 5 wins for Derby, 4 wins for Norwich and 5 draws, with the goals at 18–19.
What to expect
For us, Norwich are the more likely winners. We estimate a 1–2 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 1–1 (11.6%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
In the goals market we pick Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.47), and we rate it at 66%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 59% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 55% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 14; Derby 5 wins, 5 draws, Norwich 4 wins.
- An average of 2.6 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: Derby 11–25, Norwich 23–24.
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 55%.
- Out: Derby 9, Norwich 6.
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes (probability 59%, best price 1.62). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Derby: P. Agyemang, E. Cashin, M. Clarke, C. Forsyth, S. Langas, D. Murkin, C. Taylor, L. Travis, J. Ward. Absent for Norwich: A. Ahmed, P. A. Diallo, G. Forsyth, M. Toure, P. Mattsson, K. McLean. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Derby vs Norwich: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 3.40 | 3.66 | 2.16 |
| Market average | 3.29 | 3.53 | 2.09 |
| Lowest odds | 3.02 | 3.26 | 2.05 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.24 | 1.21 | 76.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.76 | 1.70 | 55.4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.18 | 2.12 | 44.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.87 | 2.71 | 34.4% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.62 | 1.59 | 58.7% |
| BTTS – no | 2.38 | 2.25 | 41.3% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 3/11/26, 18:00. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 6.6%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Derby 1–1 Norwich, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Derby 23rd (7 points), Norwich 12th (18 points).
- Form in the competition: Derby 1W 4D 8L (11:25), Norwich 5W 0D 8L (23:24).
- H2H: 14 matches: Derby 5W 5D 4L, goals 18–19.
- Absences: Derby 9, Norwich 6.
Who will win Derby vs Norwich?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Derby vs Norwich: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Derby vs Norwich: team news and absences
Derby
- P. AgyemangAchilles tendon injury · will miss the match
- E. Cashinnot in the squad · will miss the match
- M. Clarkecalf injury · will miss the match
- C. Forsythknee injury · will miss the match
- S. Langasinjury · will miss the match
- D. Murkinhamstring injury · will miss the match
- C. Taylorinjury · will miss the match
- L. Travisankle injury · will miss the match
- J. Wardnot in the squad · doubtful
Norwich
- A. Ahmedknee injury · will miss the match
- P. A. Dialloinjury · will miss the match
- G. Forsythabsence · will miss the match
- M. Toureshoulder injury · will miss the match
- P. Mattssonabsence · doubtful
- K. McLeannot in the squad · doubtful
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 14 | 8-4-2 | 30:19 | 28 |
| 2 |  Wolves | 14 | 8-3-3 | 25:17 | 27 |
| 3 |  Birmingham | 14 | 7-5-2 | 26:13 | 26 |
| 4 |  Stoke City | 14 | 8-2-4 | 22:17 | 26 |
| 5 |  Swansea | 14 | 8-2-4 | 21:16 | 26 |
| 6 |  West Brom | 14 | 7-4-3 | 20:15 | 25 |
| 7 |  Southampton | 14 | 8-4-2 | 29:14 | 24 |
| 8 |  West Ham | 14 | 6-5-3 | 36:21 | 23 |
| 9 |  Sheffield United | 14 | 6-4-4 | 20:17 | 22 |
| 10 |  Portsmouth | 14 | 6-4-4 | 19:16 | 22 |
| 11 |  QPR | 14 | 5-6-3 | 22:17 | 21 |
| 12 | Norwich | 14 | 6-0-8 | 27:24 | 18 |
| 13 |  Millwall | 14 | 5-3-6 | 23:24 | 18 |
| 14 |  Blackburn | 14 | 5-3-6 | 20:22 | 18 |
| 15 |  Bristol City | 14 | 5-3-6 | 16:19 | 18 |
| 16 |  Wrexham | 14 | 4-5-5 | 17:19 | 17 |
| 17 |  Bolton | 14 | 5-2-7 | 19:26 | 17 |
| 18 |  Cardiff | 14 | 3-6-5 | 22:23 | 15 |
| 19 |  Lincoln | 14 | 4-3-7 | 14:24 | 15 |
| 20 |  Watford | 14 | 4-2-8 | 13:23 | 14 |
| 21 |  Charlton | 14 | 3-5-6 | 11:22 | 14 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 14 | 1-7-6 | 18:26 | 10 |
| 23 | Derby | 14 | 1-4-9 | 11:29 | 7 |
| 24 |  Preston | 14 | 1-2-11 | 12:30 | 5 |
Recent matches
Derby
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
DerbyLLDLLNorwichWWWLLHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Derby vs Norwich?
Derby +0.5 (Asian handicap) (1.90); Under 3.5 goals (1.47).
Who will win Derby vs Norwich?
We estimate: Derby win 29%, draw 27%, Norwich win 45%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 3 November 2026, kick-off: 19:45, venue: Pride Park Stadium, Derby. Referee: Sam Allison.
Who will be missing?
Derby: P. Agyemang, E. Cashin, M. Clarke, C. Forsyth, S. Langas, D. Murkin, C. Taylor, L. Travis, J. Ward. Norwich: A. Ahmed, P. A. Diallo, G. Forsyth, M. Toure, P. Mattsson, K. McLean. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 55% (odds 1.76); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 45% (odds 2.18).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 59% (odds 1.62).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–1 as most likely (11.6%), then 1–2 (9.3%) and 0–1 (9.3%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.