Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 2–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
It is PAU against Grenoble on 23 October 2026 · 19:00 at Nouste Camp (Pau), and Gabriel Henry, France will referee. PAU (50%) start as favourites in our view. Below you can read our tip, the result probabilities, team news and analysis.
PAU vs Grenoble: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. PAU are 5th in the table, on 20 points after 11 matches (6W 2D 3L), and Grenoble are 18th, on 8 points (2W 2D 7L).
- Head to head. From 17 meetings: 5 wins for PAU, 4 wins for Grenoble and 8 draws, with the goals at 18–20.
What to expect
For us, PAU are the more likely winners. We estimate a 2–1 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 1–0 (12.9%) the most probable single result. Not much should separate the teams.
In the goals market we pick Under 2.5 goals (odds 1.76), and we rate it at 54%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 49% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 46% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 17; PAU 5 wins, 8 draws, Grenoble 4 wins.
- An average of 2.2 goals per meeting between these teams.
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 46%.
- Out: PAU 0, Grenoble 0.
Alternative tip: BTTS – no
Alternative tip: BTTS – no (probability 51%, best price 1.86). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for PAU: no absences. Absent for Grenoble: no absences. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
PAU vs Grenoble: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 1.93 | 3.55 | 4.61 |
| Market average | 1.87 | 3.38 | 4.16 |
| Lowest odds | 1.83 | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.38 | 1.33 | 70.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.16 | 2.06 | 45.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.76 | 1.72 | 54.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 4.00 | 3.68 | 25.4% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.91 | 1.87 | 49.5% |
| BTTS – no | 1.86 | 1.83 | 50.5% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 23/10/26, 17:15. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 7.3%.
At a glance
- Likely result: PAU 1–0 Grenoble, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: PAU 5th (20 points), Grenoble 18th (8 points).
- H2H: 17 matches: PAU 5W 8D 4L, goals 18–20.
- Absences: PAU 0, Grenoble 0.
Who will win PAU vs Grenoble?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
PAU vs Grenoble: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
PAU vs Grenoble: team news and absences
PAU
- No reported absences
Grenoble
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Saint-Étienne | 11 | 8-1-2 | 23:11 | 25 |
| 2 |  Montpellier | 11 | 7-3-1 | 16:6 | 24 |
| 3 |  Nancy | 11 | 7-1-3 | 16:9 | 22 |
| 4 |  Reims | 11 | 5-6-0 | 22:12 | 21 |
| 5 | PAU | 11 | 6-2-3 | 16:11 | 20 |
| 6 |  RED Star FC 93 | 11 | 5-2-4 | 14:16 | 17 |
| 7 |  Annecy | 11 | 5-1-5 | 14:15 | 16 |
| 8 |  Dijon | 11 | 4-3-4 | 20:19 | 15 |
| 9 |  Guingamp | 11 | 4-2-5 | 16:15 | 14 |
| 10 |  Metz | 11 | 3-5-3 | 17:17 | 14 |
| 11 |  Rodez | 11 | 4-1-6 | 17:22 | 13 |
| 12 |  Dunkerque | 11 | 3-3-5 | 14:17 | 12 |
| 13 |  Sochaux | 11 | 2-5-4 | 8:14 | 11 |
| 14 |  Boulogne | 11 | 1-7-3 | 7:8 | 10 |
| 15 |  Nantes | 11 | 2-3-6 | 12:18 | 9 |
| 16 |  Laval | 11 | 2-3-6 | 14:21 | 9 |
| 17 |  Clermont Foot | 11 | 0-8-3 | 10:15 | 8 |
| 18 | Grenoble | 11 | 2-2-7 | 10:20 | 8 |
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Questions and answers
What do we tip for PAU vs Grenoble?
PAU -0.5 (Asian handicap) (1.91); Under 2.5 goals (1.76).
Who will win PAU vs Grenoble?
We estimate: PAU win 50%, draw 28%, Grenoble win 22%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 23 October 2026, kick-off: 19:00, venue: Nouste Camp, Pau. Referee: Gabriel Henry, France.
Who will be missing?
PAU: no absences. Grenoble: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 46% (odds 2.16); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 54% (odds 1.76).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 49% (odds 1.91).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–0 as most likely (12.9%), then 1–1 (12.3%) and 2–0 (9.7%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
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