Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 1–3. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
It is Metz against PAU on 30 October 2026 · 19:00 at Stade Saint-Symphorien (Metz), and Bastein Dechepy will referee. Metz (48%) start as favourites in our view. Below you can read our tip, the result probabilities, team news and analysis.
Metz vs PAU: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Metz are 10th in the table, on 14 points after 11 matches (3W 5D 3L), and PAU are 5th, on 20 points (6W 2D 3L).
- Attack and defence. On average Metz score 1.6 goals a match in the competition and concede 1.4; for PAU the figures are 1.3 scored and 1.0 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Metz: 3W 5D 2L, goals 16–14; PAU: 5W 2D 3L, goals 13–10.
- Head to head. From 5 meetings: 1 win for Metz, 2 wins for PAU and 2 draws, with the goals at 4–6.
What to expect
For us, Metz are the more likely winners. We estimate a 2–1 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 1–1 (11.8%) the most probable single result. Not much should separate the teams.
What stands out is that the table favours the PAU, whereas the betting market leans slightly towards the home side. When the indicators disagree like this, the match is difficult to read, and a more careful bet is the sensible choice.
In the goals market we pick Both teams to score (odds 1.73), and we rate it at 54%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 54% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 52% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 5; Metz 1 win, 2 draws, PAU 2 wins.
- An average of 2.0 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: Metz 16–14, PAU 13–10.
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 52%.
- Out: Metz 0, PAU 0.
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes (probability 54%, best price 1.73). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Metz: no absences. Absent for PAU: no absences. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Metz vs PAU: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 2.08 | 3.79 | 3.90 |
| Market average | 1.93 | 3.49 | 3.65 |
| Lowest odds | 1.80 | 3.07 | 2.89 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.30 | 1.25 | 74.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.90 | 1.82 | 51.8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.08 | 1.96 | 48.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.21 | 3.08 | 30.3% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.73 | 1.70 | 54.4% |
| BTTS – no | 2.05 | 2.03 | 45.6% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 30/10/26, 18:00. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 8.2%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Metz 1–1 PAU, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Metz 10th (14 points), PAU 5th (20 points).
- Form in the competition: Metz 3W 5D 2L (16:14), PAU 5W 2D 3L (13:10).
- H2H: 5 matches: Metz 1W 2D 2L, goals 4–6.
- Absences: Metz 0, PAU 0.
Who will win Metz vs PAU?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Metz vs PAU: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Metz vs PAU: team news and absences
Metz
- No reported absences
PAU
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Saint-Étienne | 11 | 8-1-2 | 23:11 | 25 |
| 2 |  Montpellier | 11 | 7-3-1 | 16:6 | 24 |
| 3 |  Nancy | 11 | 7-1-3 | 16:9 | 22 |
| 4 |  Reims | 11 | 5-6-0 | 22:12 | 21 |
| 5 | PAU | 11 | 6-2-3 | 16:11 | 20 |
| 6 |  RED Star FC 93 | 11 | 5-2-4 | 14:16 | 17 |
| 7 |  Annecy | 11 | 5-1-5 | 14:15 | 16 |
| 8 |  Dijon | 11 | 4-3-4 | 20:19 | 15 |
| 9 |  Guingamp | 11 | 4-2-5 | 16:15 | 14 |
| 10 | Metz | 11 | 3-5-3 | 17:17 | 14 |
| 11 |  Rodez | 11 | 4-1-6 | 17:22 | 13 |
| 12 |  Dunkerque | 11 | 3-3-5 | 14:17 | 12 |
| 13 |  Sochaux | 11 | 2-5-4 | 8:14 | 11 |
| 14 |  Boulogne | 11 | 1-7-3 | 7:8 | 10 |
| 15 |  Nantes | 11 | 2-3-6 | 12:18 | 9 |
| 16 |  Laval | 11 | 2-3-6 | 14:21 | 9 |
| 17 |  Clermont Foot | 11 | 0-8-3 | 10:15 | 8 |
| 18 |  Grenoble | 11 | 2-2-7 | 10:20 | 8 |
Recent matches
Metz
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
MetzLDWLDPAUWWWWWHead to head
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Questions and answers
What do we tip for Metz vs PAU?
Metz -0.25 (Asian handicap) (1.85); Both teams to score (1.73).
Who will win Metz vs PAU?
We estimate: Metz win 48%, draw 27%, PAU win 25%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 30 October 2026, kick-off: 19:00, venue: Stade Saint-Symphorien, Metz. Referee: Bastein Dechepy.
Who will be missing?
Metz: no absences. PAU: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 52% (odds 1.90); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 48% (odds 2.08).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 54% (odds 1.73).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–1 as most likely (11.8%), then 1–0 (10.8%) and 2–1 (9.5%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.