Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 1–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
It is Sheffield United against Derby on 24 October 2026 · 12:30 at Bramall Lane (Sheffield), and Stephen Martin, England will referee. Sheffield United (53%) start as favourites in our view. Below you can read our tip, the result probabilities, team news and analysis.
Sheffield United vs Derby: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Sheffield United are 9th in the table, on 22 points after 14 matches (6W 4D 4L), and Derby are 23rd, on 7 points (1W 4D 9L).
- Attack and defence. On average Sheffield United score 1.4 goals a match in the competition and concede 1.3; for Derby the figures are 0.8 scored and 1.8 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Sheffield United: 4W 3D 4L, goals 15–14; Derby: 1W 3D 7L, goals 9–20.
- Head to head. From 14 meetings: 9 wins for Sheffield United, 3 wins for Derby and 2 draws, with the goals at 22–14.
What to expect
For us, Sheffield United are the more likely winners. We estimate a 2–1 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 1–1 (11.2%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
In the goals market we pick Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.45), and we rate it at 67%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 55% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 54% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 14; Sheffield United 9 wins, 2 draws, Derby 3 wins.
- An average of 2.6 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: Sheffield United 15–14, Derby 9–20.
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 54%.
- Out: Sheffield United 2, Derby 11.
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes (probability 55%, best price 1.73). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Sheffield United: M. Doherty, J. Shackleton. Absent for Derby: P. Agyemang, E. Cashin, M. Clarke, C. Forsyth, S. Langas, D. Murkin, C. Taylor, L. Travis, J. Widell Zetterstrom, M. Johnston, A. Mowatt. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Sheffield United vs Derby: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 1.82 | 4.01 | 4.75 |
| Market average | 1.77 | 3.82 | 4.33 |
| Lowest odds | 1.73 | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.25 | 1.22 | 76.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.78 | 1.74 | 54.1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.13 | 2.05 | 45.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.00 | 2.81 | 33.3% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.73 | 1.69 | 55.1% |
| BTTS – no | 2.12 | 2.07 | 44.9% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 24/10/26, 10:03. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 5.9%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Sheffield United 1–1 Derby, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Sheffield United 9th (22 points), Derby 23rd (7 points).
- Form in the competition: Sheffield United 4W 3D 4L (15:14), Derby 1W 3D 7L (9:20).
- H2H: 14 matches: Sheffield United 9W 2D 3L, goals 22–14.
- Absences: Sheffield United 2, Derby 11.
Who will win Sheffield United vs Derby?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Sheffield United vs Derby: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Sheffield United vs Derby: team news and absences
Sheffield United
- M. Dohertyinjury · will miss the match
- J. Shackletonabsence · will miss the match
Derby
- P. AgyemangAchilles tendon injury · will miss the match
- E. Cashinnot in the squad · will miss the match
- M. Clarkecalf injury · will miss the match
- C. Forsythknee injury · will miss the match
- S. Langasinjury · will miss the match
- D. Murkinhamstring injury · will miss the match
- C. Taylorinjury · will miss the match
- L. Travisankle injury · will miss the match
- J. Widell Zetterstromknee injury · will miss the match
- M. Johnstonnot in the squad · doubtful
- A. Mowattabsence · doubtful
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 14 | 8-4-2 | 30:19 | 28 |
| 2 |  Wolves | 14 | 8-3-3 | 25:17 | 27 |
| 3 |  Birmingham | 14 | 7-5-2 | 26:13 | 26 |
| 4 |  Stoke City | 14 | 8-2-4 | 22:17 | 26 |
| 5 |  Swansea | 14 | 8-2-4 | 21:16 | 26 |
| 6 |  West Brom | 14 | 7-4-3 | 20:15 | 25 |
| 7 |  Southampton | 14 | 8-4-2 | 29:14 | 24 |
| 8 |  West Ham | 14 | 6-5-3 | 36:21 | 23 |
| 9 | Sheffield United | 14 | 6-4-4 | 20:17 | 22 |
| 10 |  Portsmouth | 14 | 6-4-4 | 19:16 | 22 |
| 11 |  QPR | 14 | 5-6-3 | 22:17 | 21 |
| 12 |  Norwich | 14 | 6-0-8 | 27:24 | 18 |
| 13 |  Millwall | 14 | 5-3-6 | 23:24 | 18 |
| 14 |  Blackburn | 14 | 5-3-6 | 20:22 | 18 |
| 15 |  Bristol City | 14 | 5-3-6 | 16:19 | 18 |
| 16 |  Wrexham | 14 | 4-5-5 | 17:19 | 17 |
| 17 |  Bolton | 14 | 5-2-7 | 19:26 | 17 |
| 18 |  Cardiff | 14 | 3-6-5 | 22:23 | 15 |
| 19 |  Lincoln | 14 | 4-3-7 | 14:24 | 15 |
| 20 |  Watford | 14 | 4-2-8 | 13:23 | 14 |
| 21 |  Charlton | 14 | 3-5-6 | 11:22 | 14 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 14 | 1-7-6 | 18:26 | 10 |
| 23 | Derby | 14 | 1-4-9 | 11:29 | 7 |
| 24 |  Preston | 14 | 1-2-11 | 12:30 | 5 |
Recent matches
Sheffield United
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
Sheffield UnitedWWDWLDerbyLLDLLHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Sheffield United vs Derby?
Derby +0.75 (Asian handicap) (1.88); Under 3.5 goals (1.45).
Who will win Sheffield United vs Derby?
We estimate: Sheffield United win 53%, draw 25%, Derby win 22%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 24 October 2026, kick-off: 12:30, venue: Bramall Lane, Sheffield. Referee: Stephen Martin, England.
Who will be missing?
Sheffield United: M. Doherty, J. Shackleton. Derby: P. Agyemang, E. Cashin, M. Clarke, C. Forsyth, S. Langas, D. Murkin, C. Taylor, L. Travis, J. Widell Zetterstrom, M. Johnston, A. Mowatt. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 54% (odds 1.78); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 46% (odds 2.13).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 55% (odds 1.73).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–1 as most likely (11.2%), then 1–0 (10.6%) and 2–1 (9.8%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
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