Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 0–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Derby play Stoke City at home on 17 October 2026 · 15:00 at Pride Park Stadium (Derby); the referee is Oliver Langford, England. For us, there is no clear favourite. Our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and a match analysis are below.
Derby vs Stoke City: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Derby are 23rd in the table, on 7 points after 14 matches (1W 4D 9L), and Stoke City are 4th, on 26 points (8W 2D 4L).
What to expect
We see an evenly matched game, with a 1–1 score estimate, roughly 2 goals in all, and 1–1 (12.6%) the most probable single result. Not much should separate the teams.
In the goals market we pick Both teams to score (odds 1.75), and we rate it at 54%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 54% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 48% chance.
Prediction summary
- Expected: roughly 2 goals; over 2.5 goals: 48%.
- Out: Derby 0, Stoke City 0.
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes (probability 54%, best price 1.75). With roughly 2 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Derby: no absences. Absent for Stoke City: no absences. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Derby vs Stoke City: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 3.01 | 3.50 | 2.41 |
| Market average | 2.89 | 3.37 | 2.37 |
| Lowest odds | 2.80 | 3.30 | 2.30 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.32 | 1.29 | 72.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.03 | 1.96 | 48.0% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.86 | 1.81 | 52.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.51 | 3.33 | 27.8% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.75 | 1.72 | 53.7% |
| BTTS – no | 2.01 | 2.00 | 46.3% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 17/10/26, 12:01. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 6.6%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Derby 1–1 Stoke City, roughly 2 goals in total.
- Table: Derby 23rd (7 points), Stoke City 4th (26 points).
- Absences: Derby 0, Stoke City 0.
Who will win Derby vs Stoke City?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Derby vs Stoke City: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Derby vs Stoke City: team news and absences
Derby
- No reported absences
Stoke City
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 14 | 8-4-2 | 30:19 | 28 |
| 2 |  Wolves | 14 | 8-3-3 | 25:17 | 27 |
| 3 |  Birmingham | 14 | 7-5-2 | 26:13 | 26 |
| 4 | Stoke City | 14 | 8-2-4 | 22:17 | 26 |
| 5 |  Swansea | 14 | 8-2-4 | 21:16 | 26 |
| 6 |  West Brom | 14 | 7-4-3 | 20:15 | 25 |
| 7 |  Southampton | 14 | 8-4-2 | 29:14 | 24 |
| 8 |  West Ham | 14 | 6-5-3 | 36:21 | 23 |
| 9 |  Sheffield United | 14 | 6-4-4 | 20:17 | 22 |
| 10 |  Portsmouth | 14 | 6-4-4 | 19:16 | 22 |
| 11 |  QPR | 14 | 5-6-3 | 22:17 | 21 |
| 12 |  Norwich | 14 | 6-0-8 | 27:24 | 18 |
| 13 |  Millwall | 14 | 5-3-6 | 23:24 | 18 |
| 14 |  Blackburn | 14 | 5-3-6 | 20:22 | 18 |
| 15 |  Bristol City | 14 | 5-3-6 | 16:19 | 18 |
| 16 |  Wrexham | 14 | 4-5-5 | 17:19 | 17 |
| 17 |  Bolton | 14 | 5-2-7 | 19:26 | 17 |
| 18 |  Cardiff | 14 | 3-6-5 | 22:23 | 15 |
| 19 |  Lincoln | 14 | 4-3-7 | 14:24 | 15 |
| 20 |  Watford | 14 | 4-2-8 | 13:23 | 14 |
| 21 |  Charlton | 14 | 3-5-6 | 11:22 | 14 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 14 | 1-7-6 | 18:26 | 10 |
| 23 | Derby | 14 | 1-4-9 | 11:29 | 7 |
| 24 |  Preston | 14 | 1-2-11 | 12:30 | 5 |
Recent matches
Derby
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Questions and answers
What do we tip for Derby vs Stoke City?
Derby +0.25 (Asian handicap) (1.83); Both teams to score (1.75).
Who will win Derby vs Stoke City?
We estimate: Derby win 33%, draw 28%, Stoke City win 40%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 17 October 2026, kick-off: 15:00, venue: Pride Park Stadium, Derby. Referee: Oliver Langford, England.
Who will be missing?
Derby: no absences. Stoke City: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 48% (odds 2.03); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 52% (odds 1.86).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 54% (odds 1.75).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–1 as most likely (12.6%), then 0–1 (10.5%) and 1–0 (9.4%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
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