Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 4–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
It is Millwall against Derby on 31 October 2026 · 15:00 at The Den (London), and Anthony Backhouse will referee. Millwall (57%) start as favourites in our view. Below you can read our tip, the result probabilities, team news and analysis.
Millwall vs Derby: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Millwall are 13th in the table, on 18 points after 14 matches (5W 3D 6L), and Derby are 23rd, on 7 points (1W 4D 9L).
- Attack and defence. On average Millwall score 1.6 goals a match in the competition and concede 1.7; for Derby the figures are 0.8 scored and 1.8 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Millwall: 4W 3D 5L, goals 19–20; Derby: 1W 4D 7L, goals 10–21.
- Head to head. From 23 meetings: 10 wins for Millwall, 6 wins for Derby and 7 draws, with the goals at 25–26.
What to expect
For us, Millwall are the more likely winners. We estimate a 2–1 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 1–0 (11.5%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
In the goals market we pick Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.85), and we rate it at 52%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 52% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 52% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 23; Millwall 10 wins, 7 draws, Derby 6 wins.
- An average of 2.2 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: Millwall 19–20, Derby 10–21.
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 52%.
- Out: Millwall 7, Derby 9.
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes (probability 52%, best price 1.82). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Millwall: T. Arconte, J. Coburn, C. De Norre, L. Jensen, F. Marschall, M. Servais, M. Luongo. Absent for Derby: P. Agyemang, E. Cashin, M. Clarke, C. Forsyth, S. Langas, D. Murkin, D. Sanderson, C. Taylor, L. Travis. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Millwall vs Derby: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 1.70 | 4.10 | 5.40 |
| Market average | 1.64 | 3.90 | 5.02 |
| Lowest odds | 1.60 | 3.45 | 4.35 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.28 | 1.24 | 74.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.85 | 1.80 | 52.3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.05 | 1.98 | 47.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.10 | 2.95 | 31.7% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.82 | 1.78 | 52.1% |
| BTTS – no | 2.00 | 1.94 | 47.9% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 31/10/26, 13:40. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 6.5%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Millwall 1–0 Derby, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Millwall 13th (18 points), Derby 23rd (7 points).
- Form in the competition: Millwall 4W 3D 5L (19:20), Derby 1W 4D 7L (10:21).
- H2H: 23 matches: Millwall 10W 7D 6L, goals 25–26.
- Absences: Millwall 7, Derby 9.
Who will win Millwall vs Derby?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Millwall vs Derby: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Millwall vs Derby: team news and absences
Millwall
- T. Arconteankle injury · will miss the match
- J. Coburnmuscle injury · will miss the match
- C. De Norremuscle injury · will miss the match
- L. Jensenmuscle injury · will miss the match
- F. Marschallinjury · will miss the match
- M. Servaisnot in the squad · will miss the match
- M. Luongoknee injury · doubtful
Derby
- P. AgyemangAchilles tendon injury · will miss the match
- E. Cashinnot in the squad · will miss the match
- M. Clarkecalf injury · will miss the match
- C. Forsythknee injury · will miss the match
- S. Langasinjury · will miss the match
- D. Murkinhamstring injury · will miss the match
- D. Sandersonred card · will miss the match
- C. Taylorinjury · will miss the match
- L. Travisankle injury · will miss the match
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 14 | 8-4-2 | 30:19 | 28 |
| 2 |  Wolves | 14 | 8-3-3 | 25:17 | 27 |
| 3 |  Birmingham | 14 | 7-5-2 | 26:13 | 26 |
| 4 |  Stoke City | 14 | 8-2-4 | 22:17 | 26 |
| 5 |  Swansea | 14 | 8-2-4 | 21:16 | 26 |
| 6 |  West Brom | 14 | 7-4-3 | 20:15 | 25 |
| 7 |  Southampton | 14 | 8-4-2 | 29:14 | 24 |
| 8 |  West Ham | 14 | 6-5-3 | 36:21 | 23 |
| 9 |  Sheffield United | 14 | 6-4-4 | 20:17 | 22 |
| 10 |  Portsmouth | 14 | 6-4-4 | 19:16 | 22 |
| 11 |  QPR | 14 | 5-6-3 | 22:17 | 21 |
| 12 |  Norwich | 14 | 6-0-8 | 27:24 | 18 |
| 13 | Millwall | 14 | 5-3-6 | 23:24 | 18 |
| 14 |  Blackburn | 14 | 5-3-6 | 20:22 | 18 |
| 15 |  Bristol City | 14 | 5-3-6 | 16:19 | 18 |
| 16 |  Wrexham | 14 | 4-5-5 | 17:19 | 17 |
| 17 |  Bolton | 14 | 5-2-7 | 19:26 | 17 |
| 18 |  Cardiff | 14 | 3-6-5 | 22:23 | 15 |
| 19 |  Lincoln | 14 | 4-3-7 | 14:24 | 15 |
| 20 |  Watford | 14 | 4-2-8 | 13:23 | 14 |
| 21 |  Charlton | 14 | 3-5-6 | 11:22 | 14 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 14 | 1-7-6 | 18:26 | 10 |
| 23 | Derby | 14 | 1-4-9 | 11:29 | 7 |
| 24 |  Preston | 14 | 1-2-11 | 12:30 | 5 |
Recent matches
Millwall
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
MillwallLWLDLDerbyLLDLLHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Millwall vs Derby?
Millwall -0.75 (Asian handicap) (1.91); Over 2.5 goals (1.85).
Who will win Millwall vs Derby?
We estimate: Millwall win 57%, draw 24%, Derby win 19%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 31 October 2026, kick-off: 15:00, venue: The Den, London. Referee: Anthony Backhouse.
Who will be missing?
Millwall: T. Arconte, J. Coburn, C. De Norre, L. Jensen, F. Marschall, M. Servais, M. Luongo. Derby: P. Agyemang, E. Cashin, M. Clarke, C. Forsyth, S. Langas, D. Murkin, D. Sanderson, C. Taylor, L. Travis. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 52% (odds 1.85); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 48% (odds 2.05).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 52% (odds 1.82).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–0 as most likely (11.5%), then 1–1 (10.9%) and 2–0 (10.4%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.