Bet with Freshbet →Sheffield Wednesday play Plymouth at home on 14 November 2026 · 15:00 at Hillsborough (Sheffield). For us, there is no clear favourite. Our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and a match analysis are below.
Sheffield Wednesday vs Plymouth betting prediction
Can Sheffield Wednesday's home record hold back a Plymouth side that has been stronger on the road than at home in this competition? That is the question we keep returning to before this League One Matchweek 15 meeting at Hillsborough on 14 November 2026, kick-off 15:00.
Two tables, two different stories
Plymouth sit fifth with 23 points from 14 matches, while Sheffield Wednesday are ninth with 20 from 13. Those are this competition's figures only, and they explain why the visitors look the better side on paper. Plymouth have won 7 and lost 5, with 21 goals scored and 19 conceded, and they have scored 1.5 per match against 1.4 conceded. Wednesday have a sharper defence on the numbers, conceding 1.1 per match and scoring 1.7, with 22 goals for and 14 against.
The split at home and away is where we find the most useful detail. Wednesday are 2 won, 4 drawn and 1 lost at Hillsborough, with 14 goals scored and 5 conceded. Plymouth have been much more convincing away, with 4 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, and 13 goals for against 12 conceded. A side that wins away this often is not one we want to dismiss at a ground where the home team draws more than it wins.
What the last five matches tell us
Form in all competitions paints a more mixed picture, and we need to separate it from the table. Wednesday's last five matches bring 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats, with 7 goals scored and 6 conceded. Their most recent results were two home draws against Cambridge United and Blackpool, both 1-1, and a 5-0 win over AFC Wimbledon before that. The defeats at Notts County and Doncaster were both 2-0.
Plymouth's last five, also across all competitions, bring 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, with 5 goals scored and 8 conceded. They beat AFC Wimbledon and won 3-2 at Cambridge United, but lost 2-0 at home to Huddersfield and 3-0 at Stevenage. Their most recent match was a goalless draw with Reading. Their goals have been harder to come by lately, and that matters to how we read the scoring lines below.
No earlier meeting to lean on
We have no record of an earlier meeting between these two sides, so there is no head-to-head pattern to build on. We will judge this match on the league form, the home and away splits and the prices, and nothing else. Neither club has any absence reported, so we are not adjusting our view for team news.
What the odds and handicap lines are saying
The bookmakers make Sheffield Wednesday the most likely winners at 41% (best odds 2.27), with a draw at 26% (best odds 3.60) and a Plymouth win at 33% (best odds 2.87). Those are the market's expectations, and they lean towards the home side. Yet the handicap lines tell a different story. Plymouth +0.5 is priced at 58% with best odds 1.65, and Plymouth +0.75 at 64% with best odds 1.48. The market is treating the visitors as a side that rarely loses by more than a goal.
On goals, the bookmakers see about three in total, with Sheffield Wednesday expected to score 2 and Plymouth 1. Both teams to score is 63% (best odds 1.50), and over 2.5 goals is 60% (best odds 1.57).
Best bet for Sheffield Wednesday vs Plymouth: Draw or Plymouth
Our main tip is Draw or Plymouth (X2) at odds 1.67 (chance 59%). We like it because Plymouth are a place higher in the table with 23 points against Wednesday's 20, and the visitors have won 4 of their 7 away matches in this competition. Wednesday have won only 1 of their last 5 matches in all competitions, and we do not see enough in those results to back the home side outright. At 59%, the price is fair rather than generous, but a draw or a Plymouth win covers two of the three outcomes the market is pricing.
The tip wins on 1-1, 1-2, 0-1 and 2-2, and loses on 2-1 and 1-0. That is the honest shape of the risk. If Wednesday win by a goal, we lose.
Another tip: Both teams to score
Our second tip is Both teams to score at odds 1.50 (chance 63%). The expected total of about three goals gives both sides a route to scoring, and the market has it at 63% at best odds 1.50. We are not claiming more than that. Plymouth's recent scoring has dried up, which is why we would not stake heavily on it, but it still wins on 1-1, 2-1, 1-2 and 2-2. It loses on 1-0 and 0-1.
Two other bets we like
- Plymouth +1.5 (Asian handicap) at odds 1.23 (chance 77%). This wins unless Plymouth lose by 2 or more. Given their away record, we think a one-goal defeat is far more likely than a heavier one.
- Plymouth +0.75 (Asian handicap) at odds 1.48 (chance 64%). Half the stake goes on Plymouth +0.5 and half on Plymouth +1. It is a more aggressive way to back the visitors than the main tip, and the price reflects the risk.
Verdict from Hillsborough
We expect Plymouth to come away with at least a point, and possibly more, because their away form and their place in the table outweigh Wednesday's home record. Our main tip is Draw or Plymouth at 1.67, with Both teams to score at 1.50 as the second option. We would not back Sheffield Wednesday to win on what we have seen in their last five, and we would rather take the visitors on the handicap than on the straight result.
Sheffield Wednesday vs Plymouth: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 2.27 | 3.60 | 2.87 |
| Market average | 2.24 | 3.54 | 2.83 |
| Lowest odds | 2.20 | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.19 | 1.16 | 79.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.57 | 1.57 | 59.9% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.35 | 2.34 | 40.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.40 | 2.34 | 39.4% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.50 | 1.48 | 62.6% |
| BTTS – no | 2.50 | 2.48 | 37.4% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 4/11/26, 16:18. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 8.1%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Sheffield Wednesday 1–1 Plymouth, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Sheffield Wednesday 9th (20 points), Plymouth 5th (23 points).
- Form in the competition: Sheffield Wednesday 5W 5D 3L (22:14), Plymouth 7W 2D 5L (21:19).
- H2H: 10 matches: Sheffield Wednesday 5W 1D 4L, goals 14–13.
- Absences: Sheffield Wednesday 0, Plymouth 0.
Who will win Sheffield Wednesday vs Plymouth?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Sheffield Wednesday vs Plymouth: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Correct score prediction
Sheffield Wednesday vs Plymouth: team news and absences
Sheffield Wednesday
- No reported absences
Plymouth
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Huddersfield | 14 | 8-5-1 | 28:12 | 29 |
| 2 |  Stockport County | 14 | 8-2-4 | 26:14 | 26 |
| 3 |  Oxford United | 13 | 7-5-1 | 22:11 | 26 |
| 4 |  Luton | 14 | 7-3-4 | 27:21 | 24 |
| 5 | Plymouth | 14 | 7-2-5 | 21:19 | 23 |
| 6 |  Reading | 14 | 6-4-4 | 25:15 | 22 |
| 7 |  Bradford | 13 | 6-4-3 | 10:8 | 22 |
| 8 |  Cambridge United | 14 | 5-6-3 | 21:21 | 21 |
| 9 | Sheffield Wednesday | 13 | 5-5-3 | 22:14 | 20 |
| 10 |  Leicester | 13 | 5-4-4 | 22:19 | 19 |
| 11 |  Mansfield Town | 13 | 5-4-4 | 20:18 | 19 |
| 12 |  Milton Keynes Dons | 13 | 4-6-3 | 22:20 | 18 |
| 13 |  Wycombe | 13 | 4-6-3 | 21:23 | 18 |
| 14 |  Leyton Orient | 13 | 5-2-6 | 19:14 | 17 |
| 15 |  Burton Albion | 14 | 4-5-5 | 18:21 | 17 |
| 16 |  Stevenage | 12 | 4-4-4 | 17:13 | 16 |
| 17 |  Notts County | 12 | 3-5-4 | 13:14 | 14 |
| 18 |  AFC Wimbledon | 13 | 3-4-6 | 9:21 | 13 |
| 19 |  Blackpool | 12 | 3-3-6 | 17:21 | 12 |
| 20 |  Doncaster | 13 | 3-3-7 | 14:22 | 12 |
| 21 |  Wigan | 14 | 3-2-9 | 11:22 | 11 |
| 22 |  Peterborough | 13 | 2-4-7 | 11:23 | 10 |
| 23 |  Barnsley | 12 | 2-3-7 | 12:22 | 9 |
| 24 |  Bromley | 13 | 2-3-8 | 13:33 | 9 |
Recent matches
Sheffield Wednesday
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
Sheffield WednesdayDDLLWPlymouthDWLLWHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Sheffield Wednesday vs Plymouth?
Draw or Plymouth (X2) (1.67); Both teams to score (1.50).
Who will win Sheffield Wednesday vs Plymouth?
We estimate: Sheffield Wednesday win 41%, draw 26%, Plymouth win 33%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 14 November 2026, kick-off: 15:00, venue: Hillsborough, Sheffield.
Who will be missing?
Sheffield Wednesday: no absences. Plymouth: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 60% (odds 1.57); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 40% (odds 2.35).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 63% (odds 1.50).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–1 as most likely (10.8%), then 2–1 (8.9%) and 1–2 (7.8%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
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