Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 2–3. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Shelbourne play Waterford at home on 30 October 2026 · 19:45 at Tolka Park (Dublin). For us, Shelbourne (45%) are favourites. Our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and a match analysis are below.
Shelbourne vs Waterford: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Shelbourne are 4th in the table, on 49 points after 36 matches (12W 13D 11L), and Waterford are 7th, on 43 points (10W 13D 13L).
- Attack and defence. On average Shelbourne score 1.4 goals a match in the competition and concede 1.3; for Waterford the figures are 1.5 scored and 1.7 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Shelbourne: 12W 13D 10L, goals 50–47; Waterford: 9W 13D 13L, goals 51–59.
- Head to head. From 16 meetings: 9 wins for Shelbourne, 4 wins for Waterford and 3 draws, with the goals at 22–14.
What to expect
For us, Shelbourne are the more likely winners. We estimate a 2–1 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 1–1 (10.1%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
In the goals market we pick Both teams to score (odds 1.45), and we rate it at 65%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 65% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 63% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 16; Shelbourne 9 wins, 3 draws, Waterford 4 wins.
- An average of 2.3 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: Shelbourne 50–47, Waterford 51–59.
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 63%.
- Out: Shelbourne 0, Waterford 0.
Alternative tip: Over 2.5 goals
Alternative tip: Over 2.5 goals (probability 63%, best price 1.52). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Shelbourne: no absences. Absent for Waterford: no absences. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Shelbourne vs Waterford: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 2.14 | 3.93 | 3.18 |
| Market average | 2.05 | 3.74 | 3.06 |
| Lowest odds | 1.99 | 3.28 | 2.90 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.16 | 1.13 | 82.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.52 | 1.48 | 62.8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.63 | 2.50 | 37.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.28 | 2.22 | 42.2% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.45 | 1.43 | 64.6% |
| BTTS – no | 2.70 | 2.61 | 35.4% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 30/10/26, 18:00. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 8.3%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Shelbourne 1–1 Waterford, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Shelbourne 4th (49 points), Waterford 7th (43 points).
- Form in the competition: Shelbourne 12W 13D 10L (50:47), Waterford 9W 13D 13L (51:59).
- H2H: 16 matches: Shelbourne 9W 3D 4L, goals 22–14.
- Absences: Shelbourne 0, Waterford 0.
Who will win Shelbourne vs Waterford?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Shelbourne vs Waterford: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Shelbourne vs Waterford: team news and absences
Shelbourne
- No reported absences
Waterford
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Shamrock Rovers | 36 | 20-8-8 | 59:38 | 68 |
| 2 |  Bohemians | 36 | 19-8-9 | 63:44 | 65 |
| 3 |  St Patrick's Athletic | 36 | 17-9-10 | 55:31 | 60 |
| 4 | Shelbourne | 36 | 12-13-11 | 52:50 | 49 |
| 5 |  Derry City | 36 | 11-15-10 | 50:47 | 48 |
| 6 |  Dundalk | 36 | 11-12-13 | 55:59 | 45 |
| 7 | Waterford | 36 | 10-13-13 | 54:61 | 43 |
| 8 |  Galway United | 36 | 10-12-14 | 46:53 | 42 |
| 9 |  Drogheda United | 36 | 10-10-16 | 44:57 | 40 |
| 10 |  Sligo Rovers | 36 | 5-10-21 | 28:66 | 25 |
Recent matches
Shelbourne
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
ShelbourneLWWWDWaterfordWWWLLHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Shelbourne vs Waterford?
Shelbourne -0.25 (Asian handicap) (1.88); Both teams to score (1.45).
Who will win Shelbourne vs Waterford?
We estimate: Shelbourne win 45%, draw 25%, Waterford win 30%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 30 October 2026, kick-off: 19:45, venue: Tolka Park, Dublin.
Who will be missing?
Shelbourne: no absences. Waterford: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 63% (odds 1.52); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 37% (odds 2.63).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 65% (odds 1.45).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–1 as most likely (10.1%), then 2–1 (9.1%) and 1–2 (7.3%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
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