Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 5–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Vitória SC play Marítimo at home on 23 October 2026 · 20:45 at Estádio D. Afonso Henriques (Guimarães); the referee is D. Rosa. For us, Vitória SC (63%) are favourites. Our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and a match analysis are below.
Vitória SC vs Marítimo: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Vitória SC are 13th in the table, on 9 points after 10 matches (2W 3D 5L), and Marítimo are 14th, on 8 points (2W 2D 6L).
- Attack and defence. On average Vitória SC score 0.6 goals a match in the competition and concede 1.3; for Marítimo the figures are 1.1 scored and 1.8 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Vitória SC: 1W 2D 5L, goals 5–10; Marítimo: 2W 2D 4L, goals 9–14.
- Head to head. From 27 meetings: 15 wins for Vitória SC, 8 wins for Marítimo and 4 draws, with the goals at 34–26.
What to expect
For us, Vitória SC are the more likely winners. We estimate a 2–1 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 1–0 (12.8%) the most probable single result. Not much should separate the teams.
In the goals market we pick Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.92), and we rate it at 52%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 49% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 52% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 27; Vitória SC 15 wins, 4 draws, Marítimo 8 wins.
- An average of 2.2 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: Vitória SC 5–10, Marítimo 9–14.
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 52%.
- Out: Vitória SC 0, Marítimo 0.
Alternative tip: BTTS – no
Alternative tip: BTTS – no (probability 51%, best price 1.87). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Vitória SC: no absences. Absent for Marítimo: no absences. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Vitória SC vs Marítimo: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 1.56 | 4.40 | 7.00 |
| Market average | 1.51 | 4.18 | 6.45 |
| Lowest odds | 1.45 | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.29 | 1.26 | 74.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.92 | 1.84 | 51.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.02 | 1.95 | 48.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.32 | 3.05 | 30.7% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.95 | 1.90 | 48.9% |
| BTTS – no | 1.87 | 1.82 | 51.1% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 23/10/26, 18:18. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 5.8%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Vitória SC 1–0 Marítimo, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Vitória SC 13th (9 points), Marítimo 14th (8 points).
- Form in the competition: Vitória SC 1W 2D 5L (5:10), Marítimo 2W 2D 4L (9:14).
- H2H: 27 matches: Vitória SC 15W 4D 8L, goals 34–26.
- Absences: Vitória SC 0, Marítimo 0.
Who will win Vitória SC vs Marítimo?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Vitória SC vs Marítimo: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Vitória SC vs Marítimo: team news and absences
Vitória SC
- No reported absences
Marítimo
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 10 | 10-0-0 | 25:4 | 30 |
| 2 |  Benfica | 10 | 8-1-1 | 27:8 | 25 |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 10 | 6-3-1 | 23:11 | 21 |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 10 | 6-3-1 | 15:6 | 21 |
| 5 |  Arouca | 10 | 6-2-2 | 13:7 | 20 |
| 6 |  Académico Viseu | 10 | 6-2-2 | 15:12 | 20 |
| 7 |  GIL Vicente | 10 | 4-3-3 | 8:7 | 15 |
| 8 |  SC Braga | 10 | 4-2-4 | 12:11 | 14 |
| 9 |  Moreirense | 10 | 4-2-4 | 13:17 | 14 |
| 10 |  Alverca | 10 | 3-2-5 | 13:14 | 11 |
| 11 |  Famalicão | 10 | 2-4-4 | 14:14 | 10 |
| 12 |  Estrela | 10 | 2-4-4 | 15:19 | 10 |
| 13 | Vitória SC | 10 | 2-3-5 | 10:10 | 9 |
| 14 | Marítimo | 10 | 2-2-6 | 9:21 | 8 |
| 15 |  Nacional | 10 | 2-1-7 | 10:19 | 7 |
| 16 |  Rio Ave | 10 | 2-1-7 | 9:23 | 7 |
| 17 |  Casa Pia | 10 | 2-1-7 | 5:19 | 7 |
| 18 |  Estoril | 10 | 0-2-8 | 5:19 | 2 |
Recent matches
Vitória SC
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
Vitória SCDWLDLMarítimoLLLDLHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Vitória SC vs Marítimo?
Vitória SC -1 (Asian handicap) (2.02); Over 2.5 goals (1.92).
Who will win Vitória SC vs Marítimo?
We estimate: Vitória SC win 63%, draw 23%, Marítimo win 15%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 23 October 2026, kick-off: 20:45, venue: Estádio D. Afonso Henriques, Guimarães. Referee: D. Rosa.
Who will be missing?
Vitória SC: no absences. Marítimo: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 52% (odds 1.92); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 48% (odds 2.02).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 49% (odds 1.95).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–0 as most likely (12.8%), then 2–0 (12.1%) and 1–1 (10.2%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.