Alcoyano vs Mallorca: prediction, tip and odds, 18 November 2026, Copa del Rey

Alcoyano vs Mallorca betting prediction

Alcoyano welcome Mallorca to Estadio El Collao in Alcoy on 18 November, with kick-off at 19:00, in round 128 of the Copa del Rey. Our data contains no league standings for either club, so we base this tie on recent form and on the market view. Bookmakers give the visitors a 60% chance of winning, and the top quote is 1.57. We share that read, but our real interest lies in the total goals.

No league table in our data

We have no standings for either club to set against each other, so there is no table gap to describe. What the prices do say is clear enough: Alcoyano are at 16% to win and the draw sits at 24%, which leaves the visitors as the obvious favourites on paper.

Alcoyano's recent run: two wins, two defeats and one more result

In their most recent five outings across every competition, Alcoyano picked up two victories, a single draw and two losses, netting six goals while letting in eight. Their 3-4 triumph away at Castellonense came in the most recent outing, whereas the two reverses, away to Ucam Murcia and Atlético Baleares, both finished 2-0. Of those five games, only one was played at home, and it ended level at 1-1 against Real Murcia II.

We see a side that can find the net and leaks goals at the other end. Both teams scored in two of those five matches, and more than 2.5 goals came in only one. That combination does not frighten us for an under bet, because the hosts have not been running up big totals.

Mallorca unbeaten, but not free-scoring

Across their previous five outings in every competition, Mallorca have collected two victories and three draws without tasting defeat. Their attack found the net seven times while they let in four. The three stalemates arrived away at Girona, at Eibar and at Leganés, whereas both of their wins came at home, over Las Palmas and Cádiz. In four of those five fixtures, both sides got on the scoresheet, a higher rate than we anticipated for a team that has yet to lose in that run.

Even so, only two of the last five games went over 2.5 goals, and Mallorca managed one shutout while also going once without a goal. Our take is that this side tends to win ugly rather than pour in goals, and that interpretation shapes how we see the rest of this preview.

This is their first meeting, and neither side has any absentees

Alcoyano and Mallorca have never met before according to our records, which means there is no past pattern to draw on. We are fine with that gap. Recent form and the latest odds are enough to build a sound opinion without making up a rivalry that the figures do not support. Neither club has reported any injuries or suspensions, so both sides are likely to field close to their best available players.

What the bookmakers expect in goals

Expected goals come out at roughly 1 for Alcoyano and about 2 for Mallorca, so the match total sits near three. The most probable correct scorelines are 0-1 at 13.7%, 0-2 at 12.0% and 1-1 at 10.9%. On the totals market, the under 2.5 is priced at 54% with a best available price of 1.85, while the over is at 46% with a best price of 2.16. These figures reflect what bookmakers expect from this fixture, rather than a tally of previous meetings, and the margin the bookmakers build into the 1X2 result market is 7.9%.

The expected goal count hovers near three, just above the 2.5 line, so the under isn't a sure thing. We still favor it over the over, and the reasons follow.

Best bet for Alcoyano vs Mallorca: Under 2.5 goals

Our top selection is Under 2.5 goals at odds 1.85 (chance 54%). The model is not serving this one up easily, yet the attacking tendencies of both teams lean the same way. Three reasons back the pick:

• Alcoyano have gone over 2.5 goals in only 1 of their last 5 matches.
• Mallorca have gone over 2.5 goals in only 2 of their last 5 matches.
• Bookmakers price the under at 54% with the best available odds of 1.85.

The bet cashes on 0-0, 0-1, 0-2 and 1-1, and falls short on 1-2 and 0-3. The scoreline that stings most is 1-2, with an expected total near three goals making it a real possibility. Still, the two most probable exact scores following a 0-1 result both sit on the winning side, which is the basis for our view that the price represents good value.

Another tip: Mallorca to win

Our number two pick is Mallorca to win at 1.57 (60% chance). The Balearic side has gone five matches unbeaten, and bookmakers price them at 60% with 1.57 as the top offer. The result market carries a 7.9% margin, so the away side offers little room for extra value; we accept the current price rather than hunt for a better one.

Winning scorelines for this bet are 0-1, 0-2, 1-2 and 0-3, while 1-1 and 0-0 lose it. Our two selections separate cleanly on 1-1 and 1-2. Should the match end 0-1 or 0-2, both legs land. If it finishes 1-1, only the under pays, and a 1-2 victory pays Mallorca alone. For that reason we prefer backing both over picking one.

Other bets we like at these prices

Two of the extra markets sit comfortably alongside our tips, and we would back them over the riskier options on the board.

• Under 3.5 goals at odds 1.31 (chance 73%). It sits comfortably alongside our main tip.
• Both teams to score: no at odds 1.75 (chance 55%). A Mallorca win with a clean sheet for the hosts is exactly the script our second tip needs.

Mallorca's larger handicap lines are best avoided here. A two-goal winning margin demands more from their current form than we think they can deliver.

Most likely score settles the picks

Our most probable scoreline is a 0-1 Mallorca win at 13.7%, which lands both of our selections. Should the match end 0-2 instead, at 12.0%, both picks still survive. By contrast, a 1-1 draw (10.9%) would secure the under but leave our Mallorca pick dead, whereas a 1-2 Mallorca victory would flip that outcome, giving us the win but costing us the under. Our position: Mallorca to win, with the goal total kept low.