Badajoz vs Tenerife: prediction, tip and odds, 18 November 2026, Copa del Rey

Badajoz vs Tenerife betting prediction

Our tip is Badajoz +0.75 at odds 1.98 for the Copa del Rey round 128 tie against Tenerife at Estadio Nuevo Vivero, kick-off 19:00 on 18 November 2026. Tenerife are the market favourites, priced at 56% with the top available odds at 1.74, yet we feel that figure overrates a team that has gone five matches without a win. The bookmakers rate our selection at 50%.

Two recent runs that point in different directions

Across all competitions, Badajoz have collected nine points from five outings without losing: two victories and three stalemates. Both triumphs were home 1-0 successes over Marbella and Sanluqueño. Their three draws were a goalless one away at Puente Genil, a 1-1 with Linares Deportivo in their own ground, and a 1-1 on the road at Ciudad de Lucena.
Over that run they found the net four times while letting in only two, and they finished three of the five matches without a goal against them.

Across all competitions, Tenerife's last five matches make for uneasier reading. Their only defeat came 3-2 away to Córdoba, while the rest were a 1-1 home draw with Girona, a 1-1 draw away to Celta de Vigo II, a 1-1 at Sabadell and a 2-2 at home against FC Andorra. Over those five games they found the net seven times and let in eight, and they failed to keep a single clean sheet. and that is where we see our opening.

No earlier meeting and no absences to weigh

There is no prior meeting between these teams on file, so the head-to-head angle offers nothing here. No injuries or suspensions have been reported for either squad. The call therefore rests on recent form and the odds, which is a position we are happy to take. The absence of past results also works against the favourite, not for it.

Best bet for Badajoz vs Tenerife: Badajoz +0.75

Our top pick is Badajoz +0.75 (Asian handicap) at odds 1.98 (chance 50%). Half of the stake is placed on Badajoz +0.5 and the other half on Badajoz +1. With +0.5, a win is secured as long as Badajoz do not lose by a margin of one goal or more. With +1, the wager pays out unless Badajoz fall short by two goals or more; should they lose by exactly one, that half of the stake is refunded.

Badajoz are not being tipped to take the tie outright. The price simply demands less from them than a plain win would, and three factors support that view:

• Badajoz are unbeaten in their last five matches across all competitions.
• Tenerife have not recorded a single win in their previous five matches across all competitions.
• At the best available price of 1.98, the market puts the probability of this outcome at 50%.

Here is how the wager pays out across the most probable scorelines. A 1-1, 1-0 or 0-0 result is a full win. If the match ends 0-1 or 1-2, you get back half of your stake and lose the rest. Should it finish 0-2, the entire stake is gone. In short, Badajoz losing by a single goal is a manageable setback, whereas a defeat by two goals is what costs you the most.

Under 2.5 as the second tip

The pick for this game is Under 2.5 goals at odds 1.95 (chance 51%). Not one of Badajoz's previous five fixtures ended with more than 2.5 goals, and three of those five finished without them conceding. On the other side, Tenerife cleared 2.5 goals in just two of their latest five outings. Bookmakers set the under at 51%, which sits almost exactly where the recent form points.

Under 2.5 cashes on 0-1, 1-1, 0-2, 0-0 and 1-0, and only a 1-2 sinks it. Because bookmakers still price in roughly three goals overall, the margin here is slim, so keeping the stake small makes sense.

Other bets we would consider for the same slip

Tenerife +0.25 at 1.21 is the lowest-priced option on the card, yet it means backing the visitors not to lose at all, and four draws paired with a single defeat is not enough to make us comfortable taking that short a price. We would rather focus on the hosts. Badajoz +1.75 at 1.34 looks like a safe handicap, but we prefer to pay slightly more for Badajoz +1.5 at 1.42, which still wins as long as the margin stays under two goals. Under 3.5 goals at 1.34 works well as a companion to our second tip and leaves the total with a bit more breathing space. Our reasoning matches the logic behind the selections: Badajoz have proven difficult to beat, and Tenerife have only lost narrowly when they have lost at all.