Bet with Freshbet →Our tip for Portugalete vs Real Unión (Copa del Rey, 18 November 2026, 18:00): Portugalete or draw (1X) at odds of 1.57. Second tip: Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.73. The bookmakers' odds give Portugalete 30%, the draw 30% and Real Unión 39%. The most likely score is 1–1.
Portugalete vs Real Unión betting prediction
Can Portugalete turn a solid home record into a result against Real Unión on 18 November 2026, when the sides meet at Estadio La Florida in round 128 of the Copa del Rey? The bookmakers lean towards the visitors, but the hosts have been hard to beat lately, and that is where we think the tie turns.
At a glance
- Likely result: Portugalete 1–1 Real Unión, roughly 2 goals in total.
- H2H: 3 matches: Portugalete 1W 1D 1L, goals 4–3.
- Absences: Portugalete 0, Real Unión 0.
Where the bookmakers put their money
Real Unión are the market's pick on the match result. The bookmakers give them a 40% chance to win at best odds of 2.35, against 30% for Portugalete at 3.20 and 29% for a draw at 3.30. The bookmaker margin on the match result is 8.1%, so these chances describe what the bookmakers expect rather than a verdict on either side. We read them as a slight tilt to the away team, and nothing more. Portugalete are not outsiders here, and we would not price them as such.
Who will win Portugalete vs Real Unión?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Portugalete's unbeaten run against Real Unión's collapse
Portugalete's last five matches in all competitions brought two wins, three draws and no defeats, with goals at 10:6. The wins came away at Amorebieta (1-2) and at Ourense CF (0-3), while the home games were a 0-0 with Eibar II and a 3-3 with Arosa. Real Unión's five show a different picture: one win, two draws and two defeats, with goals at 6:8. Their only win in that spell was a 4-1 at home against Lugo, and the most recent result, a 2-0 defeat at Barakaldo, came away from home. Real Unión scored in only two of those five matches, which is the kind of number that worries us for an away side. All of these figures cover all competitions, not just this one.
Portugalete vs Real Unión: last matches of both teams
Portugalete
Real Unión
Three meetings that split evenly
The head-to-head record is level in the sense that each side has won once, and the third meeting was a draw. Portugalete have scored four goals to Real Unión's three across those games. The most recent meeting, a 1-1 draw at Real Unión on 9 August 2025, is the one we would look at first, because both sides scored and neither dominated. Earlier, Portugalete won 2-0 on 21 March 2021, and Real Unión won 2-1 on 20 December 2020. Three games are a small sample, so we use this history only as a check on the prices.
Head to head
No team news, so the form does the talking
No absences have been reported for either club, so there is no injury story to build on. That leaves the form and the price doing the work, and we are happy with that. We expect both squads to be close to full strength, and we see no reason to adjust our view for team news.
Portugalete vs Real Unión: team news and absences
Portugalete
- No reported absences
Real Unión
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Best bet for Portugalete vs Real Unión: Portugalete or draw
Portugalete or draw (1X) at odds 1.60 (chance 60%). We like this bet because the hosts only need to avoid defeat, and the market prices that outcome at 60% at the best odds of 1.60. The ticket wins on 1-1, 1-0 and 0-0, and loses on 0-1, 1-2 and 0-2, so a Real Unión win is the only real threat. Our case rests on three points:
- Portugalete lost none of their last five matches in all competitions.
- Real Unión won only one of their last five matches in all competitions.
- The market gives the double chance 60% at best odds of 1.60.
We would not back Real Unión to win at 2.35 against this, because a draw alone keeps Portugalete in the bet.
Under 2.5 as the second string
Under 2.5 goals at odds 1.73 (chance 55%). The bet wins on 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 0-0 and 0-2, and loses only on 1-2. The bookmakers rate it at 55% at best odds of 1.73, and the expected goals of about one each support that view. Portugalete kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5 matches, and the market gives under 2.5 a 55% chance at best odds of 1.73. We like the price, though we would stake less on it than on the 1X.
Portugalete vs Real Unión: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 3.05 | 3.00 | 2.32 |
| Market average | 3.03 | 3.00 | 2.31 |
| Lowest odds | 3.00 | 3.00 | 2.30 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.33 | 1.33 | 70.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.05 | 2.05 | 45.8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.73 | 1.73 | 54.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.60 | 3.60 | 25.8% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.75 | 1.75 | 53.2% |
| BTTS – no | 2.03 | 1.99 | 46.8% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 13/11/26, 17:58. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 9.7%.
Portugalete vs Real Unión: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Correct score prediction
Other bets worth a place on the slip
If you want to add to the two main picks, these are the ones we would consider, all at the odds shown:
- Portugalete +1.25 at 1.23 (chance 78%). Half the stake goes on Portugalete +1 and half on Portugalete +1.5, so the bet wins unless Portugalete lose by two or more.
- Under 3.5 goals at 1.26 (chance 74%). It fits with our second tip and only fails if the match reaches four goals or more.
- Portugalete +0.5 at 1.60 (chance 59%). The bet wins unless Portugalete lose by one or more, which makes it a simpler version of our main view.
Our verdict on La Florida
The prices favour Real Unión, but we see Portugalete holding their own at home, with a recent record that includes no defeats in five and a head-to-head that splits evenly. The expected total of about two goals points to a tight script without the goals piling up. Our main tip is Portugalete or draw at 1.60, and under 2.5 at 1.73 is our second. If you only want one bet, we would take the 1X.
Returns calculator
Match events
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Portugalete vs Real Unión?
Portugalete or draw (1X) (1.57); Under 2.5 goals (1.73).
Who will win Portugalete vs Real Unión?
We estimate: Portugalete win 30%, draw 30%, Real Unión win 39%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 18 November 2026, kick-off: 18:00, venue: Estadio La Florida, Portugalete.
Who will be missing?
Portugalete: no absences. Real Unión: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 46% (odds 2.05); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 54% (odds 1.73).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 53% (odds 1.75).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–1 as most likely (12.7%), then 0–1 (11.1%) and 1–0 (9.4%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
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