Bet with Freshbet →Our tip for Reddis vs Barakaldo (Copa del Rey, 18 November 2026, 19:30): Barakaldo -0.25 (Asian handicap) at odds of 1.88. Second tip: Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.65. The bookmakers' odds give Reddis 28%, the draw 29% and Barakaldo 42%. The most likely score is 1–1.
Wins: Barakaldo win. Half lost (half the stake back): a draw. Loses: Barakaldo lose.
Reddis vs Barakaldo betting prediction
We are backing Barakaldo -0.25 (Asian handicap) at odds 1.88, chance 52%, in the Copa del Rey round-128 tie at Reddis on 18 November 2026. Kick-off is 19:30 at the Estadi Municipal de Reus. The visitors are the side we trust here, but we want a price that pays back a little margin and gives us some protection if the match is close.
At a glance
- Likely result: Reddis 1–1 Barakaldo, roughly 2 goals in total.
- Absences: Reddis 0, Barakaldo 0.
Why Barakaldo at -0.25 and not the straight win
They have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1, scoring 4 and conceding 1. Reddis have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 over the same span, but they have scored 7 and conceded 5, so their results have been built on a more open record. That gap is why we are willing to lay the visitors a quarter-goal.
- Barakaldo have lost only 1 of their last 5 matches in all competitions.
- The bookmakers make Barakaldo -0.25 a 52% chance.
- The best odds on the bet are 1.88, which is the price we are taking.
The handicap is worth understanding before you stake on it. Half the stake goes on Barakaldo -0.5 and half on Barakaldo +0. At -0.5 Barakaldo must win by one goal or more. At +0 a Barakaldo win wins, a draw returns the stake and a defeat loses. Put simply, a 1-0 Reddis win loses the bet outright, while a 1-1 or 0-0 draw gives back half the stake. A 1-2 Reddis defeat is not a problem at all. On the likeliest scores, the bet wins on 0-1, 1-2 and 0-2, loses on 1-0, and returns half the stake on 1-1 and 0-0.
Reddis vs Barakaldo: last matches of both teams
Reddis
Barakaldo
Reddis vs Barakaldo: team news and absences
Reddis
- No reported absences
Barakaldo
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Reddis, the goals column and the clean-sheet habit
Our second tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds 1.67, chance 57%. The argument rests on how these two sides have been scoring and conceding. Reddis have gone over 2.5 goals in only 2 of their last 5 matches in all competitions. Barakaldo have gone over 2.5 goals in none of theirs. The visitors have also kept a clean sheet in 4 of their last 5 in all competitions, which is a habit that is hard to break in a single evening. The expected total for the match is about 2 goals, and the market gives the under a 57% chance at best odds of 1.67.
We would not chase the over at 2.30 with only a 43% chance behind it. On the likeliest scores, the under wins on 0-1, 1-0, 1-1, 0-0 and 0-2, and loses only on 1-2. That is a narrow set of losing outcomes, and it is the reason we prefer the under to the over.
Reddis vs Barakaldo: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Correct score prediction
What the prices say and what the record leaves out
The bookmakers have Barakaldo at 44% to win with best odds of 2.20, Reddis at 28% with best odds of 3.50, and the draw at 28% with best odds of 3.45. The margin on the match result is 8.0%. These figures describe what the market expects from this game. They are not a count of past results, and we do not read them as such.
There is no earlier meeting between Reddis and Barakaldo on record, so no head-to-head pattern can be drawn. No absences have been reported for either side. Our notes do not include a league table for either club, so the only form we can speak to is the five-match record in all competitions quoted above. We have no reason to doubt the prices on team news, and we think the market is right to make the visitors the favourites.
Who will win Reddis vs Barakaldo?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Where the cushions sit
If you want more protection than the main tip gives, Barakaldo +0.75 at odds 1.23, chance 78%, is the cleanest option. Half the stake goes on Barakaldo +0.5 and half on Barakaldo +1. The bet wins unless Barakaldo lose by two goals or more, and a defeat by exactly one goal returns the stake. It is short-priced, so it will not make a fortune, but it covers almost everything the main tip covers and a good deal more.
Reddis +1.5 at odds 1.21, chance 78%, is another route. It wins unless Reddis lose by two or more, so it sits comfortably alongside our main tip rather than against it. We would also keep Under 3.5 goals at odds 1.24, chance 76%, in mind as a goals angle to pair with the under 2.5 tip. The reasons are the same as before: the total is about 2 and the 3.5 line sits well above that. Over 1.5 goals at 1.40 and Both teams to score at 2.00 are the bets we would leave alone, because neither fits the numbers in the record as well as the others do.
Reddis vs Barakaldo: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 3.25 | 3.10 | 2.17 |
| Market average | 3.23 | 3.10 | 2.16 |
| Lowest odds | 3.20 | 3.10 | 2.15 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.36 | 1.36 | 68.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.15 | 2.15 | 43.4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.65 | 1.65 | 56.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 4.00 | 4.00 | 23.4% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.85 | 1.85 | 50.4% |
| BTTS – no | 1.91 | 1.88 | 49.6% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 13/11/26, 17:58. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 9.6%.
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Match events
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Reddis vs Barakaldo?
Barakaldo -0.25 (Asian handicap) (1.88); Under 2.5 goals (1.65).
Who will win Reddis vs Barakaldo?
We estimate: Reddis win 28%, draw 29%, Barakaldo win 42%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 18 November 2026, kick-off: 19:30, venue: Estadi Municipal de Reus, Reus.
Who will be missing?
Reddis: no absences. Barakaldo: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 43% (odds 2.15); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 57% (odds 1.65).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 50% (odds 1.85).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–1 as most likely (12.9%), then 0–1 (12.2%) and 1–0 (9.5%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
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