Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 1–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Benfica play Alverca at home on 2 November 2026 · 20:15 at Estádio da Luz (Lisbon); the referee is Bruno Pires Costa. For us, Benfica (85%) are favourites. Our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and a match analysis are below.
Benfica vs Alverca: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Benfica are 2nd in the table, on 25 points after 10 matches (8W 1D 1L), and Alverca are 10th, on 11 points (3W 2D 5L).
- Attack and defence. On average Benfica score 2.9 goals a match in the competition and concede 0.9; for Alverca the figures are 1.4 scored and 1.4 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Benfica: 7W 1D 1L, goals 26–8; Alverca: 3W 2D 4L, goals 13–13.
- Head to head. From 3 meetings: 3 wins for Benfica, 0 wins for Alverca and 0 draws, with the goals at 5–2.
What to expect
For us, Benfica are the more likely winners. We estimate a 3–1 score, roughly 4 goals in all, with 3–0 (10.5%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
Odds of 1.15 on the result do not offer much, so it is worth turning to the goals markets: Over 3.5 goals (odds 1.76), which we rate at 56%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 49% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 75% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 3; Benfica 3 wins, 0 draws, Alverca 0 wins.
- An average of 2.3 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: Benfica 26–8, Alverca 13–13.
- Expected: roughly 4 goals; over 2.5 goals: 75%.
- Out: Benfica 0, Alverca 0.
Alternative tip: BTTS – no
Alternative tip: BTTS – no (probability 51%, best price 1.91). With roughly 4 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Benfica: no absences. Absent for Alverca: no absences. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Benfica vs Alverca: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 1.15 | 11.00 | 22.00 |
| Market average | 1.12 | 9.38 | 18.02 |
| Lowest odds | 1.10 | 8.00 | 15.00 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.08 | 1.05 | 88.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.28 | 1.25 | 75.1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 4.00 | 3.76 | 24.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 1.76 | 1.68 | 56.1% |
| BTTS – yes | 2.00 | 1.88 | 49.3% |
| BTTS – no | 1.91 | 1.83 | 50.7% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 2/11/26, 18:00. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 5.5%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Benfica 3–0 Alverca, roughly 4 goals in total.
- Table: Benfica 2nd (25 points), Alverca 10th (11 points).
- Form in the competition: Benfica 7W 1D 1L (26:8), Alverca 3W 2D 4L (13:13).
- H2H: 3 matches: Benfica 3W 0D 0L, goals 5–2.
- Absences: Benfica 0, Alverca 0.
Who will win Benfica vs Alverca?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Benfica vs Alverca: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Benfica vs Alverca: team news and absences
Benfica
- No reported absences
Alverca
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 10 | 10-0-0 | 25:4 | 30 |
| 2 | Benfica | 10 | 8-1-1 | 27:8 | 25 |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 10 | 6-3-1 | 23:11 | 21 |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 10 | 6-3-1 | 15:6 | 21 |
| 5 |  Arouca | 10 | 6-2-2 | 13:7 | 20 |
| 6 |  Académico Viseu | 10 | 6-2-2 | 15:12 | 20 |
| 7 |  GIL Vicente | 10 | 4-3-3 | 8:7 | 15 |
| 8 |  SC Braga | 10 | 4-2-4 | 12:11 | 14 |
| 9 |  Moreirense | 10 | 4-2-4 | 13:17 | 14 |
| 10 | Alverca | 10 | 3-2-5 | 13:14 | 11 |
| 11 |  Famalicão | 10 | 2-4-4 | 14:14 | 10 |
| 12 |  Estrela | 10 | 2-4-4 | 15:19 | 10 |
| 13 |  Vitória SC | 10 | 2-3-5 | 10:10 | 9 |
| 14 |  Marítimo | 10 | 2-2-6 | 9:21 | 8 |
| 15 |  Nacional | 10 | 2-1-7 | 10:19 | 7 |
| 16 |  Rio Ave | 10 | 2-1-7 | 9:23 | 7 |
| 17 |  Casa Pia | 10 | 2-1-7 | 5:19 | 7 |
| 18 |  Estoril | 10 | 0-2-8 | 5:19 | 2 |
Recent matches
Benfica
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
BenficaWWWLWAlvercaLLWWWHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Benfica vs Alverca?
Over 3.5 goals (1.76); Benfica to win (1.15).
Who will win Benfica vs Alverca?
We estimate: Benfica win 85%, draw 10%, Alverca win 5%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 2 November 2026, kick-off: 20:15, venue: Estádio da Luz, Lisbon. Referee: Bruno Pires Costa.
Who will be missing?
Benfica: no absences. Alverca: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 75% (odds 1.28); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 25% (odds 4.00).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 49% (odds 2.00).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 3–0 as most likely (10.5%), then 2–0 (9.9%) and 4–0 (8.4%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.