Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 1–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Atlético Madrid play Deportivo La Coruña at home on 24 October 2026 · 20:00 at Riyadh Air Metropolitano (Madrid); the referee is José María Sánchez Martínez, Spain. For us, Atlético Madrid (74%) are favourites. Our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and a match analysis are below.
Atlético Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruña: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Atlético Madrid are 2nd in the table, on 28 points after 11 matches (9W 1D 1L), and Deportivo La Coruña are 8th, on 14 points (3W 5D 3L).
- Attack and defence. On average Atlético Madrid score 2.1 goals a match in the competition and concede 0.9; for Deportivo La Coruña the figures are 1.4 scored and 1.3 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Atlético Madrid: 7W 1D 1L, goals 19–8; Deportivo La Coruña: 2W 5D 2L, goals 13–12.
- Head to head. From 14 meetings: 11 wins for Atlético Madrid, 0 wins for Deportivo La Coruña and 3 draws, with the goals at 23–3.
What to expect
For us, Atlético Madrid are the more likely winners. We estimate a 2–1 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 2–0 (12.3%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
In the goals market we pick Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.65), and we rate it at 61%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 47% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 61% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 14; Atlético Madrid 11 wins, 3 draws, Deportivo La Coruña 0 wins.
- An average of 1.9 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: Atlético Madrid 19–8, Deportivo La Coruña 13–12.
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 61%.
- Out: Atlético Madrid 3, Deportivo La Coruña 5.
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals (probability 60%, best price 1.62). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Atlético Madrid: J. Cardoso, Koke, C. Romero. Absent for Deportivo La Coruña: P. Aubameyang, N. Carrillo, M. Casado, Z. Eddahchouri, B. Ede. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Atlético Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruña: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 1.34 | 6.20 | 11.50 |
| Market average | 1.29 | 5.84 | 10.19 |
| Lowest odds | 1.25 | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.19 | 1.15 | 81.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.65 | 1.55 | 61.2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.55 | 2.44 | 38.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.44 | 2.34 | 40.4% |
| BTTS – yes | 2.12 | 1.98 | 47.2% |
| BTTS – no | 1.91 | 1.77 | 52.8% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 24/10/26, 18:00. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 4.6%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Atlético Madrid 2–0 Deportivo La Coruña, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Atlético Madrid 2nd (28 points), Deportivo La Coruña 8th (14 points).
- Form in the competition: Atlético Madrid 7W 1D 1L (19:8), Deportivo La Coruña 2W 5D 2L (13:12).
- H2H: 14 matches: Atlético Madrid 11W 3D 0L, goals 23–3.
- Absences: Atlético Madrid 3, Deportivo La Coruña 5.
Who will win Atlético Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruña?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Atlético Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruña: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Atlético Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruña: team news and absences
Atlético Madrid
- J. Cardosothigh injury · will miss the match
- Kokemuscle injury · will miss the match
- C. Romeromuscle injury · will miss the match
Deportivo La Coruña
- P. Aubameyangknee injury · will miss the match
- N. Carrillomuscle injury · will miss the match
- M. Casadoabsence · will miss the match
- Z. Eddahchouriabsence · will miss the match
- B. Edehamstring injury · will miss the match
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 11 | 10-0-1 | 46:12 | 30 |
| 2 | Atlético Madrid | 11 | 9-1-1 | 22:8 | 28 |
| 3 |  Real Madrid | 11 | 9-0-2 | 28:10 | 27 |
| 4 |  Real Betis | 11 | 7-2-2 | 18:15 | 23 |
| 5 |  Real Sociedad | 11 | 6-1-4 | 20:20 | 19 |
| 6 |  Sevilla | 11 | 5-2-4 | 17:19 | 17 |
| 7 |  Athletic Club | 10 | 4-3-3 | 14:10 | 15 |
| 8 | Deportivo La Coruña | 11 | 3-5-3 | 15:14 | 14 |
| 9 |  Villarreal | 11 | 3-3-5 | 15:15 | 12 |
| 10 |  Celta Vigo | 11 | 2-6-3 | 10:10 | 12 |
| 11 |  Alavés | 11 | 3-3-5 | 15:17 | 12 |
| 12 |  Rayo Vallecano | 10 | 3-3-4 | 15:20 | 12 |
| 13 |  Getafe | 11 | 3-3-5 | 8:16 | 12 |
| 14 |  Espanyol | 11 | 3-2-6 | 13:14 | 11 |
| 15 |  Osasuna | 11 | 3-2-6 | 11:22 | 11 |
| 16 |  Racing Santander | 11 | 3-2-6 | 15:29 | 11 |
| 17 |  Elche | 11 | 2-4-5 | 14:18 | 10 |
| 18 |  Levante | 11 | 2-4-5 | 16:21 | 10 |
| 19 |  Valencia | 11 | 2-3-6 | 8:17 | 9 |
| 20 |  Málaga | 11 | 0-5-6 | 8:21 | 5 |
Recent matches
Atlético Madrid
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
Atlético MadridWWWWWDeportivo La CoruñaWLDLDHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Atlético Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruña?
Over 2.5 goals (1.65); Atlético Madrid to win (1.34).
Who will win Atlético Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruña?
We estimate: Atlético Madrid win 74%, draw 16%, Deportivo La Coruña win 9%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 24 October 2026, kick-off: 20:00, venue: Riyadh Air Metropolitano, Madrid. Referee: José María Sánchez Martínez, Spain.
Who will be missing?
Atlético Madrid: J. Cardoso, Koke, C. Romero. Deportivo La Coruña: P. Aubameyang, N. Carrillo, M. Casado, Z. Eddahchouri, B. Ede. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 61% (odds 1.65); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 39% (odds 2.55).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 47% (odds 2.12).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 2–0 as most likely (12.3%), then 1–0 (10.3%) and 3–0 (9.9%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
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