Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 1–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
VfB Stuttgart v Atlético Madrid: 20 October 2026 · 20:00 at MHP Arena (Stuttgart), with Serdar Gözübüyük refereeing. We have Atlético Madrid (46%) down as favourites. Scroll down for the tip, the chances of each outcome, absences and our breakdown of the game.
VfB Stuttgart vs Atlético Madrid: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. VfB Stuttgart are 14th in the table, on 7 points after 4 matches (2W 1D 1L), and Atlético Madrid are 23rd, on 4 points (1W 1D 2L).
- Head to head. From 1 meetings: 0 wins for VfB Stuttgart, 0 wins for Atlético Madrid and 1 draw, with the goals at 1–1.
What to expect
For us, Atlético Madrid are the more likely winners. We estimate a 1–2 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 1–1 (9.9%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
In the goals market we pick Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.47), and we rate it at 65%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 67% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 65% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 1; VfB Stuttgart 0 wins, 1 draw, Atlético Madrid 0 wins.
- An average of 2.0 goals per meeting between these teams.
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 65%.
- Out: VfB Stuttgart 0, Atlético Madrid 0.
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals (probability 55%, best price 1.81). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for VfB Stuttgart: no absences. Absent for Atlético Madrid: no absences. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
VfB Stuttgart vs Atlético Madrid: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 3.55 | 4.00 | 2.13 |
| Market average | 3.32 | 3.87 | 2.06 |
| Lowest odds | 3.08 | 3.70 | 2.00 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.15 | 1.12 | 83.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.47 | 1.44 | 65.1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.78 | 2.69 | 34.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.17 | 2.13 | 45.0% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.44 | 1.40 | 66.5% |
| BTTS – no | 2.88 | 2.78 | 33.5% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 20/10/26, 18:00. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 4.6%.
At a glance
- Likely result: VfB Stuttgart 1–1 Atlético Madrid, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: VfB Stuttgart 14th (7 points), Atlético Madrid 23rd (4 points).
- H2H: 1 match: VfB Stuttgart 0W 1D 0L, goals 1–1.
- Absences: VfB Stuttgart 0, Atlético Madrid 0.
Who will win VfB Stuttgart vs Atlético Madrid?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
VfB Stuttgart vs Atlético Madrid: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
VfB Stuttgart vs Atlético Madrid: team news and absences
VfB Stuttgart
- No reported absences
Atlético Madrid
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 4 | 4-0-0 | 20:5 | 12 |
| 2 |  Real Madrid | 4 | 4-0-0 | 13:7 | 12 |
| 3 |  Arsenal | 4 | 3-1-0 | 8:3 | 10 |
| 4 |  Como | 4 | 3-0-1 | 19:6 | 9 |
| 5 |  Barcelona | 4 | 3-0-1 | 14:6 | 9 |
| 6 |  Aston Villa | 4 | 3-0-1 | 12:6 | 9 |
| 7 |  Manchester City | 4 | 3-0-1 | 12:7 | 9 |
| 8 |  Liverpool | 4 | 3-0-1 | 14:10 | 9 |
| 9 |  Club Brugge KV | 4 | 3-0-1 | 11:7 | 9 |
| 10 |  Sporting CP | 4 | 3-0-1 | 8:4 | 9 |
| 11 |  Real Betis | 4 | 3-0-1 | 8:6 | 9 |
| 12 |  Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 3-0-1 | 7:5 | 9 |
| 13 |  Bayern München | 4 | 2-2-0 | 12:5 | 8 |
| 14 | VfB Stuttgart | 4 | 2-1-1 | 7:4 | 7 |
| 15 |  Inter | 4 | 2-0-2 | 8:6 | 6 |
| 16 |  Lask Linz | 4 | 2-0-2 | 10:9 | 6 |
| 17 |  Manchester United | 4 | 2-0-2 | 8:8 | 6 |
| 18 |  Galatasaray | 4 | 2-0-2 | 8:9 | 6 |
| 19 |  Fenerbahçe | 4 | 1-2-1 | 6:11 | 5 |
| 20 |  AS Roma | 4 | 1-1-2 | 10:8 | 4 |
| 21 |  Shakhtar Donetsk | 4 | 1-1-2 | 4:4 | 4 |
| 22 |  Viking | 4 | 1-1-2 | 9:10 | 4 |
| 23 | Atlético Madrid | 4 | 1-1-2 | 4:5 | 4 |
| 24 |  PSV Eindhoven | 4 | 1-1-2 | 3:4 | 4 |
| 25 |  Bodø/Glimt | 4 | 1-1-2 | 4:9 | 4 |
| 26 |  FC Porto | 4 | 1-0-3 | 6:7 | 3 |
| 27 |  Napoli | 4 | 1-0-3 | 6:11 | 3 |
| 28 |  Villarreal | 4 | 1-0-3 | 8:14 | 3 |
| 29 |  AEK Athens FC | 4 | 1-0-3 | 5:11 | 3 |
| 30 |  RB Leipzig | 4 | 1-0-3 | 5:11 | 3 |
| 31 |  Sabah FA | 4 | 1-0-3 | 4:10 | 3 |
| 32 |  Feyenoord | 4 | 1-0-3 | 4:11 | 3 |
| 33 |  Lens | 4 | 1-0-3 | 4:16 | 3 |
| 34 |  Slavia Praha | 4 | 0-1-3 | 5:9 | 1 |
| 35 |  Lille | 4 | 0-1-3 | 4:10 | 1 |
| 36 |  Slovan Bratislava | 4 | 0-0-4 | 1:17 | 0 |
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Questions and answers
What do we tip for VfB Stuttgart vs Atlético Madrid?
Atlético Madrid +0.25 (Asian handicap) (1.50); Over 2.5 goals (1.47).
Who will win VfB Stuttgart vs Atlético Madrid?
We estimate: VfB Stuttgart win 29%, draw 25%, Atlético Madrid win 46%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 20 October 2026, kick-off: 20:00, venue: MHP Arena, Stuttgart. Referee: Serdar Gözübüyük.
Who will be missing?
VfB Stuttgart: no absences. Atlético Madrid: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 65% (odds 1.47); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 35% (odds 2.78).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 67% (odds 1.44).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–1 as most likely (9.9%), then 1–2 (9.2%) and 2–1 (7.2%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.