Aubagne vs Amiens: prediction, tip and odds, 7 November 2026, Ligue 3

Aubagne vs Amiens betting prediction

Aubagne sit 17th in Ligue 3 with 7 points from 11 games, while Amiens are 8th on 17. Standings reflect only this league, so they tell us nothing about a cup meeting or any other match between the pair. The game begins at 13:45 on 7 November 2026 at Stade de Lattre-de-Tassigny, a venue with a capacity of 3000.

Can Aubagne stop the rot at home?

Aubagne are in poor form. Across all competitions over their last five outings, they have managed a single victory and four defeats, netting three times while letting in ten. That lone success arrived on the road at Fleury 91, where they edged it 2-1. Back at home they fell 0-1 to Le Puy Foot, and at Versailles they were beaten 4-0. Within this competition, their tally stands at six scored and seventeen conceded, averaging 0.5 goals for and 1.5 against per game. Nothing in those numbers points to a turnaround, so we would not back them to chase a result against a side that seldom lets the ball past its goalkeeper.

Why Amiens look the steadier side

Amiens have been much more solid lately. Across all competitions over their last five matches, they picked up two wins and three draws without losing once, scoring eight and conceding three. Two of those draws were away, at Quevilly and Valenciennes, while the home match against Thionville Lusitanos also ended 1-1. In this league they have netted 14 and let in 5, averaging 1.3 scored and 0.5 conceded per game. On the road they have a record of one win, four draws and one defeat. It is not glamorous, but it shows a team that keeps picking up points even when things go against them, and that is exactly what we want from a visiting side.

No earlier meeting and a clean team sheet

We could not locate any previous fixture between these two sides, so no head-to-head trend is available to draw on. No club has flagged a missing player either, so our read is based on the squads as they currently stand instead of speculation about who might sit out. For a punter, that clarity is helpful, since last-minute team news is frequently what shifts a price for reasons that have little to do with the match itself.

How the odds read the likely outcome

Amiens are the market's pick, priced at 51 per cent to win, with the best available odds at 1.83. Aubagne come in at 23 per cent for a victory, while the draw is put at 27 per cent, and the bookmaker margin on the result sits at 10.2 per cent. These figures simply reflect what the market expects; we use them as a rough steer, not a fixed verdict.

Goal expectations sit near three in the match, with Aubagne projected at roughly 1 and Amiens at roughly 2. Under 2.5 goals is priced at 53 per cent, offered at a top price of 1.83, while over lands at 47 per cent with odds of 2.15. The scorelines the market rates as most probable are 0-1 at 12.7 per cent, 1-1 at 12.1 per cent and 0-2 at 9.9 per cent.

Best bet for Aubagne vs Amiens: Under 2.5 goals

Our top pick is Under 2.5 goals at 1.83, with a 53 per cent chance. Amiens have topped 2.5 goals in just one of their last five games, and they have posted a clean sheet in two of those five. The bookmakers also list the under at 1.83, and nothing in that price looks worth opposing given those results.

This tip wins on 0-1, 1-1, 0-2, 0-0 and 1-0, and loses only on 1-2. Three of those scorelines, 0-1, 1-1 and 0-2, are the ones the market itself rates most likely, so the tip sits comfortably with the way the prices are shaped.

Another tip: Amiens to win

Backing Amiens to win at 1.83 is our second selection, which we put at a 51 per cent chance. Across their last five outings Amiens remain unbeaten, whereas Aubagne have taken just one victory from that run. Sitting eighth on 17 points, Amiens hold a clear advantage over Aubagne, who occupy 17th place with 7. On the road, Amiens have recorded one win, four draws and one defeat, which points to a side that is difficult to beat away from home.

This tip cashes on 0-1, 0-2 and 1-2, and fails on 1-1, 0-0 and 1-0. The main danger is plain enough: a 1-0 home win is a realistic outcome for a team averaging just 0.5 goals in this competition. Amiens is still our choice at this price, though we'd think twice before backing both tips with equal money, because a 1-1 sinks the win and a 1-2 sinks the under.

Three other bets worth a look

• Draw or Amiens (X2) is priced at 1.22, giving a 77 per cent chance. Of all the picks here, it carries the least risk, and it lines up with the expectation that Aubagne will walk away with nothing from this meeting.
• Amiens +0.5 (Asian handicap) at odds 1.26, with a chance of 76 per cent. The stake only loses if Amiens are beaten by a margin of at least a goal, which gives them a wider safety margin than a plain win bet would offer.
• Under 3.5 goals at odds 1.30, with a chance of 73 per cent. The price is lower, yet it lines up with our main tip and only requires that the game avoids turning into a goal fest.

Our verdict for Saturday

We are siding with a total of Under 2.5 goals at 1.83. Our second selection is Amiens to win, also priced at 1.83. Amiens have the stronger season figures and the better recent results, and the market backs that view. Aubagne have managed just one home win in this competition, so little is expected from them in their own stadium. A one-goal away success for the visitors would suit us well.