Bet with Freshbet →Caen v Versailles: 7 November 2026 · 13:45 at Stade Michel d'Ornano (Caen). We see little between the teams. Scroll down for the tip, the chances of each outcome, absences and our breakdown of the game.
Caen vs Versailles betting prediction
Our tip for Caen against Versailles in Ligue 3, Matchweek 12, is Draw or Versailles (X2) at odds 1.62, a chance the bookmakers put at 61%. Kick-off is 7 November 2026 at 13:45 at the Stade Michel d'Ornano, and we expect Versailles to leave with at least a point.
Versailles' away form carries the tip
Versailles sit third in this competition on 22 points, with Caen fourth on 19. The gap is not large, but the way the two teams have been playing lately is. Versailles have won 4 of their last 5 matches in all competitions and have lost none of them. In those five they scored 9 and conceded 2, which is a very different picture from Caen's last five: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, with 9 goals scored and 10 conceded.
Away from home, Versailles have 4 wins, no draws and 2 defeats in this competition. That is a team that wins on the road more often than it loses there, and it is the main reason we do not want to back Caen to beat them outright. Caen are not weak at home, with 5 wins, no draws and 1 defeat in this competition, but their wider run has been uneven.
Caen's home record against a side that keeps conceding little
Caen score 1.9 goals per match in this competition and concede 1.4. Versailles score 1.7 and concede 1.2. On those numbers Caen have the more potent attack, and the bookmakers agree that the home side is the likeliest to win, at 39%. We still see the match going the other way on the strength of Versailles' defence.
The bookmakers' own numbers point the same way. Versailles win is priced at 34%, a draw at 27%, and the best odds for a Versailles win are 2.90. Those odds are a good reason not to chase the away win, but they also explain why the draw and Versailles combined are the value we see. The bookmaker margin on the match result is 10.0%.
Meetings and absences that favour the visitors
The head-to-head record is the simplest argument we have. In the last three meetings Versailles have won 2 and Caen have won none, with one draw. The goals tell the same story, Versailles 4 and Caen 1 across those three games. The results were 30/1/26 Versailles 2-1 Caen, 22/8/25 Caen 0-2 Versailles and 23/7/22 Caen 0-0 Versailles. None of that makes the result certain, but it is a pattern worth respecting.
There are no absences reported for either side, so nothing about the line-ups changes the picture. The expected goals are Caen 2 and Versailles 1, about 3 goals in total, and the most likely exact scores are 1-1 at 11.6%, 2-1 at 8.7% and 1-0 at 8.3%. Our main tip wins on 1-1, 1-2 and 0-1, and loses on 2-1, 1-0 and 2-0. We are comfortable with that split because the draw is the single most likely score.
Under 3.5 and the bets we would add
Our second tip is Under 3.5 goals at odds 1.50, with the market giving it a 64% chance. Versailles have kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5 matches, and that is the figure we lean on. If Versailles stay tight at the back, it is hard to see the match reaching four goals, and the odds of 1.50 are fair for that scenario. The tip wins on each of the three likeliest exact scores we have listed, 1-1, 2-1 and 1-0, so it does not depend on one result.
Two bets that sit comfortably with the tips
If you want a second bet alongside the main tip, Versailles +1 on the Asian handicap at odds 1.30 is the one we would take. It wins unless Versailles lose by 2 or more goals, and a defeat by exactly one goal returns the stake. It fits our view of a Versailles side that does not lose heavily. Over 1.5 goals at odds 1.21 is the other option we are happy with, because it does not clash with Under 3.5 and the chance is put at 78%. We would not stack either of these on top of a large stake, but as small additions they make sense.
We would rather back a team that keeps its shape away from home and has not lost in its last five than a home side that has shown inconsistency across all competitions. Versailles' recent results, their away record and their edge in the meetings are the reasons we give the visitors the advantage, and that is why the draw or Versailles is our tip.
Caen vs Versailles: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 2.41 | 3.55 | 2.95 |
| Market average | 2.30 | 3.41 | 2.69 |
| Lowest odds | 2.18 | 3.20 | 2.60 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.21 | 1.19 | 77.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.67 | 1.64 | 56.4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.19 | 2.13 | 43.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.67 | 2.53 | 36.4% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.62 | 1.54 | 59.7% |
| BTTS – no | 2.34 | 2.29 | 40.3% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 5/11/26, 08:16. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 10.1%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Caen 1–1 Versailles, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Caen 4th (19 points), Versailles 3rd (22 points).
- Form in the competition: Caen 6W 1D 4L (21:15), Versailles 7W 1D 3L (19:13).
- H2H: 3 matches: Caen 0W 1D 2L, goals 1–4.
- Absences: Caen 0, Versailles 0.
Who will win Caen vs Versailles?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Caen vs Versailles: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Correct score prediction
Caen vs Versailles: team news and absences
Caen
- No reported absences
Versailles
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  La Roche VF | 11 | 7-3-1 | 18:10 | 24 |
| 2 |  Rouen | 11 | 7-2-2 | 20:9 | 23 |
| 3 | Versailles | 11 | 7-1-3 | 19:13 | 22 |
| 4 | Caen | 11 | 6-1-4 | 21:15 | 19 |
| 5 |  Cannes | 11 | 4-6-1 | 14:7 | 18 |
| 6 |  Le Puy Foot | 11 | 5-2-4 | 14:11 | 17 |
| 7 |  Concarneau | 11 | 4-5-2 | 14:11 | 17 |
| 8 |  Amiens | 11 | 4-5-2 | 14:5 | 17 |
| 9 |  Fleury 91 | 11 | 4-4-3 | 17:13 | 16 |
| 10 |  Gobelins | 11 | 4-4-3 | 11:11 | 16 |
| 11 |  Bastia | 11 | 4-3-4 | 10:12 | 15 |
| 12 |  Thionville Lusitanos | 11 | 3-4-4 | 16:17 | 13 |
| 13 |  Quevilly | 11 | 3-4-4 | 11:16 | 13 |
| 14 |  Orléans | 11 | 2-4-5 | 10:15 | 10 |
| 15 |  Valenciennes | 11 | 2-3-6 | 11:17 | 9 |
| 16 |  Villefranche | 11 | 2-2-7 | 10:24 | 8 |
| 17 |  Aubagne | 11 | 2-1-8 | 6:17 | 7 |
| 18 |  Bourg-en-bresse 01 | 11 | 1-2-8 | 5:18 | 5 |
Recent matches
Caen
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
CaenDWLWLVersaillesWWWWDHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Caen vs Versailles?
Draw or Versailles (X2) (1.65); Under 3.5 goals (1.50).
Who will win Caen vs Versailles?
We estimate: Caen win 40%, draw 27%, Versailles win 34%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 7 November 2026, kick-off: 13:45, venue: Stade Michel d'Ornano, Caen.
Who will be missing?
Caen: no absences. Versailles: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 56% (odds 1.67); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 44% (odds 2.19).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 60% (odds 1.62).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–1 as most likely (11.6%), then 2–1 (8.7%) and 1–0 (8.3%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
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