Concarneau vs Fleury 91: prediction, tip and odds, 7 November 2026, Ligue 3

Concarneau vs Fleury 91 betting prediction

Ligue 3 Matchweek 12 brings Concarneau and Fleury 91 together at the Stade Guy Piriou on 7 November 2026, kick-off 13:45. The bookmakers see a close contest, with Concarneau at 42%, the draw at 28% and Fleury 91 at 29%. The most likely exact scores are 1-1 at 12.6%, 1-0 at 10.9% and 0-1 at 9.0%, so the middle of the market is level and tight at the top. That shapes how we bet it.

How have the two sides been playing lately?

Concarneau's last five matches across all competitions read 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, with 7 scored and 5 conceded. Their only loss was a 2-1 reverse at Rouen on 31 October, and that was their most recent game before this one. Fleury 91 have a near-identical set of results: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, with 7 scored and 6 conceded. Their last outing was a 1-1 draw with Gobelins at home, and they lost 1-2 to Aubagne in one of the earlier games in that run.

Neither side is on a streak that tells us much on its own. Both have been drawing a lot and winning narrowly, which is the pattern we see in the bookmaker prices. We do not read either team as clearly in form, and we like that for the draw-friendly bets.

Who scores, and who keeps the door shut?

In this competition only, Fleury 91 have scored 17 and conceded 13, which is 1.5 scored and 1.2 conceded per match. Concarneau have scored 14 and conceded 11, or 1.3 scored and 1.0 conceded per match. So Fleury 91 carry more goals, and Concarneau are the tighter defence. Fleury 91 sit ninth on 16 points and Concarneau seventh on 17, a one-point gap that is hardly a gulf.

The home record is where we would look first. Concarneau have won three, drawn two and lost one at home in this competition, scoring 9 and conceding 6. Fleury 91 have been better away than we might have expected, with two wins, one draw and one defeat, but a total of 5 scored and 4 conceded on the road is a small sample. We give the hosts the slight edge for the simple reason that their home numbers are the strongest part of their season so far.

What do the head-to-head meetings say?

Concarneau have the better recent record. In the last four meetings they have won two, drawn one and lost one, scoring 7 goals to Fleury 91's 3. The most striking result was Concarneau's 4-0 win at Fleury 91 on 27 February 2026. The reverse fixture on 19 September 2025 went the other way, 1-0 to Fleury 91 with the hosts Concarneau on the wrong end.

Four games is not much, and we would not build a whole case on it. Still, the 4-0 suggests Concarneau can open up this opponent when things click, and it is one reason we keep their side of the handicap line in view.

Are there any absences to factor in?

No absences have been reported for either club. That leaves the match to be decided by the form and the tactics rather than by a missing key man, and we think the bookmakers' numbers reflect that.

Which bet do we actually back here?

Our main tip is both teams to score at odds 1.91 (chance 52%). The case rests on how often each side finds the net. Both teams scored in four of their last five matches, and neither Concarneau nor Fleury 91 has been shut out in that run, since each failed to score in none of their last five. Both sides therefore look like teams that do not dry up in front of goal, and that is the basis for our tip. The market's 52% is only a little below what we see, so we would keep the stake moderate.

The risk is plain. A 0-0 would lose it, and so would a 1-0 or a 2-0, because each of those leaves one side blank. We are happy to take that risk, because the 1-1 and the 2-1 both win the bet, and 1-1 is the most likely exact score on the board.

Our second tip is Concarneau or draw (1X) at odds 1.30 (chance 71%). Concarneau have lost only one of their last five matches, and their home record is three wins, two draws and one defeat. They also sit above Fleury 91 in the league table, seventh with 17 points to ninth with 16, and they have taken two of the last four meetings against one win for the visitors. We see the 71% as a fair reflection of that. The odds are short, so this is a base bet, not one to chase.

Other bets we would look at, all at the odds given:

• Over 1.5 goals at odds 1.33 (chance 71%). The bookmakers expect at least two goals with real confidence, and both teams' scoring habits back that up.
• Under 3.5 goals at odds 1.31 (chance 71%). We see little reason for this to turn into a goal fest, so the market's view looks sensible to us.
• Concarneau +0.25 at odds 1.45 (chance 65%). Half the stake sits on Concarneau +0 and half on Concarneau +0.5. A Concarneau win wins in full, a draw wins the half on +0.5 and returns the half on +0, and a defeat by one goal loses the whole stake.
• Fleury 91 +1.5 at odds 1.23 (chance 77%). The bet wins unless Fleury 91 lose by two or more, so a draw, a Fleury win or a narrow defeat all keep it alive. It is the safest price on the list, and it fits our view that this is not a match for a heavy home win.

Our last word on the score

The 1-1 is the most likely exact score at 12.6%, and it is one of the results that wins both our main tip and our second tip. That is the reason we keep the draw in mind throughout. We would not be surprised by a narrow Concarneau win, but we would not expect a rout either way.