Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 0–2. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
AZ Alkmaar v Twente: 25 October 2026 · 19:00 at AFAS Stadion（Alkmaar） (Alkmaar), with Alex Bos refereeing. We see little between the teams. Scroll down for the tip, the chances of each outcome, absences and our breakdown of the game.
AZ Alkmaar vs Twente: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. AZ Alkmaar are 5th in the table, on 20 points after 11 matches (6W 2D 3L), and Twente are 4th, on 23 points (7W 2D 2L).
- Attack and defence. On average AZ Alkmaar score 2.2 goals a match in the competition and concede 1.1; for Twente the figures are 1.9 scored and 1.1 conceded.
- Form in the competition. AZ Alkmaar: 6W 2D 1L, goals 20–10; Twente: 5W 2D 2L, goals 17–10.
- Head to head. From 35 meetings: 18 wins for AZ Alkmaar, 12 wins for Twente and 5 draws, with the goals at 60–48.
What to expect
We see an evenly matched game, with a 2–2 score estimate, roughly 4 goals in all, and 1–1 (10.0%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
In the goals market we pick Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.50), and we rate it at 64%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 66% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 64% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 35; AZ Alkmaar 18 wins, 5 draws, Twente 12 wins.
- An average of 3.1 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: AZ Alkmaar 20–10, Twente 17–10.
- Expected: roughly 4 goals; over 2.5 goals: 64%.
- Out: AZ Alkmaar 4, Twente 4.
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals (probability 57%, best price 1.70). With roughly 4 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for AZ Alkmaar: J. Hornkamp, S. Resink, K. Smit, J. Clasie. Absent for Twente: M. Bruns, S. Lemkin, F. Thorvaldsen, L. Unnerstall. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
AZ Alkmaar vs Twente: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 2.30 | 3.94 | 3.05 |
| Market average | 2.22 | 3.78 | 2.88 |
| Lowest odds | 2.14 | 3.40 | 2.70 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.16 | 1.12 | 83.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.50 | 1.46 | 64.2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.75 | 2.62 | 35.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.25 | 2.17 | 43.5% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.44 | 1.41 | 65.8% |
| BTTS – no | 2.88 | 2.71 | 34.2% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 25/10/26, 18:00. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 6.4%.
At a glance
- Likely result: AZ Alkmaar 1–1 Twente, roughly 4 goals in total.
- Table: AZ Alkmaar 5th (20 points), Twente 4th (23 points).
- Form in the competition: AZ Alkmaar 6W 2D 1L (20:10), Twente 5W 2D 2L (17:10).
- H2H: 35 matches: AZ Alkmaar 18W 5D 12L, goals 60–48.
- Absences: AZ Alkmaar 4, Twente 4.
Who will win AZ Alkmaar vs Twente?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
AZ Alkmaar vs Twente: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
AZ Alkmaar vs Twente: team news and absences
AZ Alkmaar
- J. Hornkampinjury · will miss the match
- S. Resinkknee injury · will miss the match
- K. Smitinjury · will miss the match
- J. Clasieknock · doubtful
Twente
- M. Brunsnot in the squad · will miss the match
- S. Lemkinmuscle injury · will miss the match
- F. Thorvaldsennot in the squad · will miss the match
- L. Unnerstallnot in the squad · will miss the match
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Feyenoord | 11 | 7-4-0 | 33:12 | 25 |
| 2 |  Ajax | 11 | 7-3-1 | 30:13 | 24 |
| 3 |  PSV Eindhoven | 11 | 7-2-2 | 35:13 | 23 |
| 4 | Twente | 11 | 7-2-2 | 28:10 | 23 |
| 5 | AZ Alkmaar | 11 | 6-2-3 | 20:13 | 20 |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 11 | 5-4-2 | 18:18 | 19 |
| 7 |  Heerenveen | 11 | 5-3-3 | 19:13 | 18 |
| 8 |  Groningen | 11 | 4-3-4 | 26:24 | 15 |
| 9 |  Cambuur | 11 | 4-3-4 | 23:22 | 15 |
| 10 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 11 | 3-5-3 | 23:27 | 14 |
| 11 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 11 | 3-3-5 | 20:26 | 12 |
| 12 |  Utrecht | 11 | 3-3-5 | 19:31 | 12 |
| 13 |  NEC Nijmegen | 11 | 2-5-4 | 17:19 | 11 |
| 14 |  PEC Zwolle | 11 | 3-2-6 | 12:23 | 11 |
| 15 |  Excelsior | 11 | 3-2-6 | 16:28 | 11 |
| 16 |  Telstar | 11 | 2-3-6 | 16:23 | 9 |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 11 | 1-3-7 | 13:24 | 6 |
| 18 |  Willem II | 11 | 0-2-9 | 10:39 | 2 |
Recent matches
AZ Alkmaar
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
AZ AlkmaarLLDLWTwenteWWLDWHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for AZ Alkmaar vs Twente?
Draw or Twente (X2) (1.72); Over 2.5 goals (1.50).
Who will win AZ Alkmaar vs Twente?
We estimate: AZ Alkmaar win 42%, draw 25%, Twente win 33%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 25 October 2026, kick-off: 19:00, venue: AFAS Stadion（Alkmaar）, Alkmaar. Referee: Alex Bos.
Who will be missing?
AZ Alkmaar: J. Hornkamp, S. Resink, K. Smit, J. Clasie. Twente: M. Bruns, S. Lemkin, F. Thorvaldsen, L. Unnerstall. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 64% (odds 1.50); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 36% (odds 2.75).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 66% (odds 1.44).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–1 as most likely (10.0%), then 2–1 (8.8%) and 1–2 (7.8%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.