Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 1–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
It is Ajax against AZ Alkmaar on 31 October 2026 · 20:00 at Johan Cruijff Arena (Amsterdam), and Allard Lindhout will referee. Ajax (54%) start as favourites in our view. Below you can read our tip, the result probabilities, team news and analysis.
Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Ajax are 2nd in the table, on 24 points after 11 matches (7W 3D 1L), and AZ Alkmaar are 5th, on 20 points (6W 2D 3L).
- Attack and defence. On average Ajax score 2.9 goals a match in the competition and concede 1.3; for AZ Alkmaar the figures are 2.0 scored and 1.2 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Ajax: 6W 3D 1L, goals 29–13; AZ Alkmaar: 6W 2D 2L, goals 20–12.
- Head to head. From 37 meetings: 15 wins for Ajax, 14 wins for AZ Alkmaar and 8 draws, with the goals at 62–48.
What to expect
For us, Ajax are the more likely winners. We estimate a 2–1 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 2–1 (9.3%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
In the goals market we pick Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.87), and we rate it at 52%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 67% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 69% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 37; Ajax 15 wins, 8 draws, AZ Alkmaar 14 wins.
- An average of 3.0 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: Ajax 29–13, AZ Alkmaar 20–12.
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 69%.
- Out: Ajax 6, AZ Alkmaar 6.
Alternative tip: Over 3.5 goals
Alternative tip: Over 3.5 goals (probability 48%, best price 2.07). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Ajax: S. Adingra, Caio Henrique, K. Dolberg, O. Edvardsen, A. Gaaei, S. Berghuis. Absent for AZ Alkmaar: J. Hornkamp, A. Oufkir, S. Resink, K. Smit, J. Zoet, W. Goes. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 1.80 | 4.55 | 4.18 |
| Market average | 1.73 | 4.28 | 3.98 |
| Lowest odds | 1.60 | 3.81 | 3.80 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.13 | 1.09 | 85.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.41 | 1.36 | 68.8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.10 | 3.01 | 31.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.07 | 1.96 | 48.3% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.42 | 1.39 | 66.8% |
| BTTS – no | 2.88 | 2.80 | 33.2% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 31/10/26, 13:04. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 6.5%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Ajax 2–1 AZ Alkmaar, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Ajax 2nd (24 points), AZ Alkmaar 5th (20 points).
- Form in the competition: Ajax 6W 3D 1L (29:13), AZ Alkmaar 6W 2D 2L (20:12).
- H2H: 37 matches: Ajax 15W 8D 14L, goals 62–48.
- Absences: Ajax 6, AZ Alkmaar 6.
Who will win Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar: team news and absences
Ajax
- S. Adingraabsence · will miss the match
- Caio Henriquethigh injury · will miss the match
- K. Dolbergknee injury · will miss the match
- O. Edvardsennot in the squad · will miss the match
- A. Gaaeiinjury · will miss the match
- S. Berghuisinjury · doubtful
AZ Alkmaar
- J. Hornkampinjury · will miss the match
- A. Oufkirabsence · will miss the match
- S. Resinkknee injury · will miss the match
- K. Smitinjury · will miss the match
- J. Zoetnot in the squad · will miss the match
- W. Goesnot in the squad · doubtful
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Feyenoord | 11 | 7-4-0 | 33:12 | 25 |
| 2 | Ajax | 11 | 7-3-1 | 30:13 | 24 |
| 3 |  PSV Eindhoven | 11 | 7-2-2 | 35:13 | 23 |
| 4 |  Twente | 11 | 7-2-2 | 28:10 | 23 |
| 5 | AZ Alkmaar | 11 | 6-2-3 | 20:13 | 20 |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 11 | 5-4-2 | 18:18 | 19 |
| 7 |  Heerenveen | 11 | 5-3-3 | 19:13 | 18 |
| 8 |  Groningen | 11 | 4-3-4 | 26:24 | 15 |
| 9 |  Cambuur | 11 | 4-3-4 | 23:22 | 15 |
| 10 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 11 | 3-5-3 | 23:27 | 14 |
| 11 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 11 | 3-3-5 | 20:26 | 12 |
| 12 |  Utrecht | 11 | 3-3-5 | 19:31 | 12 |
| 13 |  NEC Nijmegen | 11 | 2-5-4 | 17:19 | 11 |
| 14 |  PEC Zwolle | 11 | 3-2-6 | 12:23 | 11 |
| 15 |  Excelsior | 11 | 3-2-6 | 16:28 | 11 |
| 16 |  Telstar | 11 | 2-3-6 | 16:23 | 9 |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 11 | 1-3-7 | 13:24 | 6 |
| 18 |  Willem II | 11 | 0-2-9 | 10:39 | 2 |
Recent matches
Ajax
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
AjaxWWWDDAZ AlkmaarLLDLWHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar?
Ajax -0.75 (Asian handicap) (1.97); Under 3.5 goals (1.87).
Who will win Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar?
We estimate: Ajax win 54%, draw 22%, AZ Alkmaar win 24%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 31 October 2026, kick-off: 20:00, venue: Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam. Referee: Allard Lindhout.
Who will be missing?
Ajax: S. Adingra, Caio Henrique, K. Dolberg, O. Edvardsen, A. Gaaei, S. Berghuis. AZ Alkmaar: J. Hornkamp, A. Oufkir, S. Resink, K. Smit, J. Zoet, W. Goes. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 69% (odds 1.41); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 31% (odds 3.10).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 67% (odds 1.42).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 2–1 as most likely (9.3%), then 1–1 (8.6%) and 3–1 (6.7%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
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