Bet with Freshbet →It is Rouen against Bastia on 7 November 2026 · 13:45 at Stade Robert Diochon (Rouen). Rouen (55%) start as favourites in our view. Below you can read our tip, the result probabilities, team news and analysis.
Rouen vs Bastia betting prediction
We like Bastia +1 on the Asian handicap at odds 1.72 for Ligue 3 Matchweek 12, Rouen against Bastia at the Stade Robert Diochon on 7 November 2026, kick-off 13:45. The bookmakers give it a 57% chance at those odds, and we think that price is about right for a Bastia side that has been hard to beat lately. Rouen are the stronger team on paper, but we do not think they will win by enough to make this bet lose.
Rouen's home record against Bastia's away form
Rouen sit second in this competition with 23 points from 11 matches, seven wins, two draws and two defeats, and they have scored 20 goals while conceding nine. At home the picture is cleaner still: four wins, two draws, no defeats, and a goal record of 9:2. Those are the numbers that make the home side the favourite, and the market agrees, putting Rouen to win at 55% with best odds of 1.67.
Bastia are eleventh on 15 points, with four wins, three draws and four defeats in this competition. Their goals read 10:12, and their average of 0.9 scored and 1.1 conceded per match is the reason we are cautious about the home side covering a big margin. Away from home they have won three, drawn one and lost one, scoring four and conceding two. That is a small sample, but it is the record we are backing.
The table and the season figures are for this competition only. Rouen's recent results in all competitions are a different story, and they are worth a look because they show the team is not running away with every game. Their last five matches in all competitions brought three wins and two defeats, with eight goals scored and seven conceded. Two of those defeats came away, at Caen and at Gobelins, and Rouen did not keep a clean sheet in every one of their home games.
Why Bastia keep the margin small
Our case rests on how Bastia have been losing. In their last five matches in all competitions they lost only once, a 1-0 defeat at Gobelins, and drew three. Their goals across those five were 5:4, so the games have not been high-scoring affairs, and they have not been blown away either.
The handicap is where the value sits for us. At +1, the bet wins unless Bastia lose by two or more, and a defeat by exactly one returns the stake. That means a 1-0 Rouen win gets our money back, while a 1-1 draw wins outright and a 0-1 Bastia win also wins. The one result that loses is a 2-0 Rouen win, which is one of the three most likely exact scores. The most likely exact scores, 1-0, 1-1 and 2-0, give us a stake back, a win and a loss, so this is not a bet that depends on one scoreline.
We would not back Bastia to win outright at 5.10, and the market's 20% figure for that outcome is a good reason to stay with the handicap. The draw is also priced at 3.88 with a 25% chance, which tells us the bookmakers see a fair chance of a close finish without seeing Bastia as favourites.
Under 2.5 and the other bets we like
Our second tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds 1.84, with a 52% chance from the bookmakers. We like it because Rouen have kept a clean sheet in two of their last five matches in all competitions, and Bastia have not had a match with more than 2.5 goals in their last five. The market's expected goals of about three in total is close to the line, so this is not a runaway pick, but the bet wins on 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 0-0 and 0-1, and loses only on 2-1. The market's Over 2.5 chance is 48% at 2.08, which tells us the bookmakers themselves are split almost evenly.
Besides the two tips, we would back Under 3.5 goals at odds 1.30, a 73% chance that suits the same low-scoring view. If you want a bet that sits comfortably beside Bastia +1, Draw or Bastia (X2) at odds 2.30 with a 45% chance is a sensible cover, since it wins on a draw and on any Bastia win. We would also add Both teams to score: no at odds 1.85, which fits the Under 2.5 tip, because a Rouen win to nil or a Bastia win to nil keeps the match under the line.
We would leave Rouen +0.5 at 1.21 alone. The price is short and the value is thin, and it works against the idea that Bastia can keep this game close. The reason is simple: a 1.72 price on a 57% chance is the bet we trust most.
Rouen vs Bastia: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 1.67 | 3.88 | 4.85 |
| Market average | 1.66 | 3.61 | 4.52 |
| Lowest odds | 1.62 | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.30 | 1.28 | 71.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.95 | 1.92 | 48.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.85 | 1.81 | 51.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.36 | 3.25 | 28.3% |
| BTTS – yes | 2.00 | 1.88 | 48.9% |
| BTTS – no | 1.85 | 1.80 | 51.1% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 5/11/26, 08:16. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 10.1%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Rouen 1–0 Bastia, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Rouen 2nd (23 points), Bastia 11th (15 points).
- Form in the competition: Rouen 7W 2D 2L (20:9), Bastia 4W 3D 4L (10:12).
- Absences: Rouen 0, Bastia 0.
Who will win Rouen vs Bastia?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Rouen vs Bastia: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Correct score prediction
Rouen vs Bastia: team news and absences
Rouen
- No reported absences
Bastia
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  La Roche VF | 11 | 7-3-1 | 18:10 | 24 |
| 2 | Rouen | 11 | 7-2-2 | 20:9 | 23 |
| 3 |  Versailles | 11 | 7-1-3 | 19:13 | 22 |
| 4 |  Caen | 11 | 6-1-4 | 21:15 | 19 |
| 5 |  Cannes | 11 | 4-6-1 | 14:7 | 18 |
| 6 |  Le Puy Foot | 11 | 5-2-4 | 14:11 | 17 |
| 7 |  Concarneau | 11 | 4-5-2 | 14:11 | 17 |
| 8 |  Amiens | 11 | 4-5-2 | 14:5 | 17 |
| 9 |  Fleury 91 | 11 | 4-4-3 | 17:13 | 16 |
| 10 |  Gobelins | 11 | 4-4-3 | 11:11 | 16 |
| 11 | Bastia | 11 | 4-3-4 | 10:12 | 15 |
| 12 |  Thionville Lusitanos | 11 | 3-4-4 | 16:17 | 13 |
| 13 |  Quevilly | 11 | 3-4-4 | 11:16 | 13 |
| 14 |  Orléans | 11 | 2-4-5 | 10:15 | 10 |
| 15 |  Valenciennes | 11 | 2-3-6 | 11:17 | 9 |
| 16 |  Villefranche | 11 | 2-2-7 | 10:24 | 8 |
| 17 |  Aubagne | 11 | 2-1-8 | 6:17 | 7 |
| 18 |  Bourg-en-bresse 01 | 11 | 1-2-8 | 5:18 | 5 |
Recent matches
Rouen
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
RouenWLWLWBastiaWDDLDReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Rouen vs Bastia?
Bastia +1 (Asian handicap) (1.70); Under 2.5 goals (1.85).
Who will win Rouen vs Bastia?
We estimate: Rouen win 55%, draw 25%, Bastia win 20%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 7 November 2026, kick-off: 13:45, venue: Stade Robert Diochon, Rouen.
Who will be missing?
Rouen: no absences. Bastia: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 48% (odds 1.95); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 52% (odds 1.85).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 49% (odds 2.00).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–0 as most likely (12.0%), then 1–1 (11.4%) and 2–0 (10.2%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.