Estoril vs Marítimo: prediction, tip and odds, 8 November 2026, Primeira Liga

Estoril vs Marítimo betting prediction

Can Estoril, still waiting for a win in this competition, get past a Marítimo side that has gone five matches without one? On paper Marítimo are the stronger side, yet the bookmakers favour Estoril, and it is this gap between the two views that we find most worth examining. Venue: Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, 8 November 2026, kick-off 15:30, Matchweek 11 of the Primeira Liga.

The table and the two home records

Estoril are 18th with 2 points from 10 games, having won none of them. Their home record is 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats, with 3 goals scored and 8 conceded. Across the season they average 0.5 goals scored and 1.9 conceded per match. That is not a side we would trust to build a result on.

Marítimo, 14th with 8 points, are only marginally more convincing. Their 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats in this competition come with 9 goals scored and 21 conceded. On the road, they have collected 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats, with 5 scored and 12 conceded. They score 0.9 and concede 2.1 per game. Neither attack frightens anyone, but Marítimo have more to show for their numbers.

Five straight defeats and what sits behind them

These figures include every competition, not only the league, so they may differ from the standings. Estoril have lost all five of their recent matches, scoring 3 and conceding 12. Their biggest defeat was a 4-0 reverse away to FC Porto on 31 October, and before that they fell 1-3 at home to Moreirense on 25 October. Both sides found the net in three of the five games, and over 2.5 goals arrived in four.

Marítimo arrive with a similar slump: they have yet to win, have drawn once and lost four times, scoring 3 and conceding 13. The heaviest blow was a 5-0 reverse away to Vitória SC on 23 October, and their most recent outing, a 2-0 loss at home to Santa Clara on 1 November, pointed to the same porous back line. Across those five matches, each side found the net in three, and three of them produced over 2.5 goals. Form is poor on both sides, and we make no attempt to dress that up.

Seventeen meetings and a clear edge for Estoril

Past meetings are the clearest signal here. Estoril have taken 7 wins, 7 draws and 3 defeats from the last 17 encounters, with 22 goals scored against Marítimo's 14. The results on file are Estoril 3-1 Marítimo (27 May 2023), Marítimo 1-0 Estoril (22 January 2023), Marítimo 0-0 Estoril (5 February 2022), Estoril 2-1 Marítimo (27 August 2021), Marítimo 1-3 Estoril (27 January 2021) and Estoril 1-1 Marítimo (7 April 2018). Marítimo's victories stand out as the exceptions rather than the pattern.

Nobody missing on either side

Neither Estoril nor Marítimo has any injury or suspension news to report. No absences are reported for either side, so the result will likely hinge on recent performances and the statistics rather than any late change to the starting eleven.

What the odds and handicap lines say

Bookmakers rate Estoril as the favourite, giving them a 45% chance of winning, with the top available price at 2.14. Marítimo's victory is put at 28%, with the best odds reaching 3.52, while a draw is priced at 27% and the best available odds are 3.58. The overround on the 1X2 market stands at 7.6%. Estoril's projected goal output is around 2 and Marítimo's about 1, giving roughly 3 goals combined. The most probable exact results are 1-1 at 12.2%, 1-0 at 10.6% and 2-1 at 9.1%. Over 1.5 goals comes in at 74% with a top price of 1.31, and over 2.5 goals at 50% with a best price of 1.95. These figures reflect the bookmakers' own expectations, so we treat them as a guide rather than a verdict.

Best bet for Estoril vs Marítimo: Estoril -0.25

We are backing Estoril -0.25 (Asian handicap) at odds 1.88, chance 53%. The stake is split evenly, with one half placed on Estoril -0.5 and the other half on Estoril +0. Estoril -0.5 only pays if they win by one goal or more, while Estoril +0 wins the bet on a victory, gets the stake back on a draw, and loses it on a defeat.

We base this pick on three points. Marítimo have not recorded a single win in their last five outings. Estoril have taken 7 of the last 17 head-to-head meetings, while Marítimo have managed 3. Finally, the best available price on this handicap is 1.88, which implies a probability of 53%, a reasonable value for the team holding the advantage. Here is how the wager plays out: a home win by 1-0, 2-1 or 2-0 takes the stake, a 1-1 or 0-0 result returns half the stake, and a 0-1 defeat loses it entirely.

Marítimo's recent five matches don't give us enough reason to back them at the win, and the 3.58 price on a draw is only worth a look if something stronger comes to light.

A second-choice bet: both teams to find the net

Our second pick is both teams to score at 1.75 odds, with a 54% chance. Across all competitions, each side has found the net in three of its last five outings, and projected totals near 3 goals point to chances at both ends. Bookmakers price it the same way, at 54%. The catch is that a single clean sheet decides the outcome against us. Results of 1-1 and 2-1 cash the bet, whereas 1-0, 0-1, 2-0 and 0-0 all lose.

Two more bets worth a small stake

If you prefer a higher chance, these two fit the picture we have described:

• Over 1.5 goals at odds 1.31, chance 74%. It lines up with the projected total and with how often both teams have found the net in their latest matches.
• Estoril or draw (1X) at odds 1.33, chance 72%. It takes in the outcomes the home team is most likely to produce and fits well with our main tip.

Where this one ends

Estoril hold the betting favour and the head-to-head edge, whereas Marítimo sit higher in the standings. Neither side is in good shape lately, so we think the outcome will hinge on which club commits fewer costly errors. Our selection is Estoril -0.25, while both teams to score appeals to anyone expecting goals from each end.