Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 3–2. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Fenerbahçe vs Liverpool Prediction: Liverpool -1 Handicap
We suggest taking the Liverpool -1 Asian handicap at 1.877; should the side prevail by a single goal, the wager is returned. The title‑holders boast an unbeaten run in Europe, whereas the visitors are faltering across several areas.
Fenerbahçe have endured a dramatic downturn over the last fortnight: a 2‑1 derby defeat to Galatasaray prompted Ismail Kartal to step down, and temporary manager Dirk Kuyt – once a Liverpool player – opened his spell with a 2‑1 loss at home to Göztepe despite initially scoring. The club now hovers close to the relegation zone in the league, having secured just two points across three Champions League fixtures, highlighted by a 6‑0 drubbing at Aston Villa.
The past seven days for Liverpool require perspective. A 1‑0 loss to Arsenal halted their streak of five games without defeat, yet their continental record stays flawless – three victories over formidable sides, netting a total of 12 goals.
Playing in Istanbul under European lights can prove challenging, and a fresh managerial impact might arise. Still, the disparity in structure and skill suggests a solid victory for the visitors, and the -1 market at 1.877 safeguards us should Liverpool prevail by just one goal.
Fenerbahçe host Liverpool: match day, start hour and stadium
Fenerbahçe will welcome Liverpool on Wednesday, 4 November 2026, for the fourth round of the Champions League group stage. The match begins at 20:45 TRT (local) at Istanbul’s Chobani Stadium. Officiating duties fall to Clement Tarpin.
In the United Kingdom the match is available on TNT Sports, with streaming via HBO Max. Paramount+ carries it in the United States and DAZN in Canada. Broadcast arrangements can differ by region, so check local listings.
Fenerbahçe against Liverpool: Odds and Prime Markets
Although Liverpool head into the match as strong contenders, the odds are not excessively tight, taking into account Istanbul’s standing and the home side’s instability. The -1 Asian handicap priced at 1.877 provides a worthwhile boost over a simple win, while still preserving the one‑goal refund.
Fenerbahçe have allowed nine goals across three continental fixtures, with six coming at Villa, which backs the handicap. Liverpool’s desire to recover from the defeat to Arsenal provides additional impetus.
Form Coming Into the Match
Fenerbahçe’s latest form provides little optimism: they suffered league setbacks against Galatasaray and Göztepe over a tough two‑week span, and have managed just two points in three Champions League fixtures following a crushing defeat at Aston Villa. Kuyt has only been manager for roughly a week.
Liverpool’s defeat by Arsenal halted a solid sequence that featured triumphs against Brighton and Brentford, yet their Champions League record stays immaculate: three wins, 12 goals.
Key Pre‑Match Statistics
Fenerbahçe have conceded nine goals in their three league‑phase fixtures and remain winless in this season’s Champions League.
Liverpool’s 12 goals across three European matches showcase their offensive strength, and they have secured victory in each game even against tough opposition.
Head‑to‑Head History
Fenerbahçe and Liverpool meet competitively for the inaugural time, eliminating any past psychological influence. Kuyt, confronting the side that made him a legend, brings a personal twist to his debut European home fixture.
Squad Update: Absences, Bans and Crucial Figures
Liverpool are without Conor Bradley, Hugo Ekitike, Jeremie Frimpong and Giovanni Leoni, exposing their squad depth after the loss to Arsenal. The side will count on veteran N'Golo Kanté and Matteo Guendouzi to steer the midfield, while Romelu Lukaku and Mason Greenwood are expected to provide the scoring threat.
Kuyt’s primary responsibility will involve strengthening the backline, given Fenerbahçe’s defensive frailties throughout the campaign, while Liverpool’s forward line aims to capitalize on this vulnerability.
Fenerbahçe vs Liverpool: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 6.00 | 5.33 | 1.57 |
| Market average | 5.70 | 4.99 | 1.49 |
| Lowest odds | 5.00 | 4.70 | 1.44 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.10 | 1.08 | 86.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.35 | 1.33 | 71.1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.50 | 3.28 | 28.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 1.91 | 1.86 | 51.6% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.50 | 1.44 | 64.6% |
| BTTS – no | 2.80 | 2.63 | 35.4% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 4/11/26, 16:13. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 4.8%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Fenerbahçe 1–2 Liverpool, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Fenerbahçe 19th (5 points), Liverpool 8th (9 points).
- Form in the competition: Fenerbahçe 4W 4D 1L (11:12), Liverpool 3W 0D 0L (12:7).
- Absences: Fenerbahçe 7, Liverpool 8.
Who will win Fenerbahçe vs Liverpool?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Fenerbahçe vs Liverpool: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Fenerbahçe vs Liverpool: team news and absences
Fenerbahçe
- N. Akemuscle injury · will miss the match
- M. Asensioknee injury · will miss the match
- A. Dioufnot in the squad · will miss the match
- A. Fallnot in the squad · will miss the match
- J. OosterwoldeAchilles tendon injury · will miss the match
- M. Yandasnot in the squad · will miss the match
- K. Peprahinjury · doubtful
Liverpool
- C. Bradleyknee injury · will miss the match
- F. Chiesanot in the squad · will miss the match
- H. EkitikeAchilles tendon injury · will miss the match
- W. Endonot in the squad · will miss the match
- J. Frimpongmuscle injury · will miss the match
- R. Gravenberchabsence · will miss the match
- G. Leoniknee injury · will miss the match
- A. Nalloabsence · will miss the match
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 4 | 4-0-0 | 20:5 | 12 |
| 2 |  Real Madrid | 4 | 4-0-0 | 13:7 | 12 |
| 3 |  Arsenal | 4 | 3-1-0 | 8:3 | 10 |
| 4 |  Como | 4 | 3-0-1 | 19:6 | 9 |
| 5 |  Barcelona | 4 | 3-0-1 | 14:6 | 9 |
| 6 |  Aston Villa | 4 | 3-0-1 | 12:6 | 9 |
| 7 |  Manchester City | 4 | 3-0-1 | 12:7 | 9 |
| 8 | Liverpool | 4 | 3-0-1 | 14:10 | 9 |
| 9 |  Club Brugge KV | 4 | 3-0-1 | 11:7 | 9 |
| 10 |  Sporting CP | 4 | 3-0-1 | 8:4 | 9 |
| 11 |  Real Betis | 4 | 3-0-1 | 8:6 | 9 |
| 12 |  Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 3-0-1 | 7:5 | 9 |
| 13 |  Bayern München | 4 | 2-2-0 | 12:5 | 8 |
| 14 |  VfB Stuttgart | 4 | 2-1-1 | 7:4 | 7 |
| 15 |  Inter | 4 | 2-0-2 | 8:6 | 6 |
| 16 |  Lask Linz | 4 | 2-0-2 | 10:9 | 6 |
| 17 |  Manchester United | 4 | 2-0-2 | 8:8 | 6 |
| 18 |  Galatasaray | 4 | 2-0-2 | 8:9 | 6 |
| 19 | Fenerbahçe | 4 | 1-2-1 | 6:11 | 5 |
| 20 |  AS Roma | 4 | 1-1-2 | 10:8 | 4 |
| 21 |  Shakhtar Donetsk | 4 | 1-1-2 | 4:4 | 4 |
| 22 |  Viking | 4 | 1-1-2 | 9:10 | 4 |
| 23 |  Atlético Madrid | 4 | 1-1-2 | 4:5 | 4 |
| 24 |  PSV Eindhoven | 4 | 1-1-2 | 3:4 | 4 |
| 25 |  Bodø/Glimt | 4 | 1-1-2 | 4:9 | 4 |
| 26 |  FC Porto | 4 | 1-0-3 | 6:7 | 3 |
| 27 |  Napoli | 4 | 1-0-3 | 6:11 | 3 |
| 28 |  Villarreal | 4 | 1-0-3 | 8:14 | 3 |
| 29 |  AEK Athens FC | 4 | 1-0-3 | 5:11 | 3 |
| 30 |  RB Leipzig | 4 | 1-0-3 | 5:11 | 3 |
| 31 |  Sabah FA | 4 | 1-0-3 | 4:10 | 3 |
| 32 |  Feyenoord | 4 | 1-0-3 | 4:11 | 3 |
| 33 |  Lens | 4 | 1-0-3 | 4:16 | 3 |
| 34 |  Slavia Praha | 4 | 0-1-3 | 5:9 | 1 |
| 35 |  Lille | 4 | 0-1-3 | 4:10 | 1 |
| 36 |  Slovan Bratislava | 4 | 0-0-4 | 1:17 | 0 |
Recent matches
Fenerbahçe
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
FenerbahçeWDLDLiverpoolLWWWReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Match schedule?
The encounter will be played on Wednesday, 4 November 2026, with the kickoff slated for 20:45 TRT, hosted at Istanbul’s Chobani Stadium.
What is the prediction?
We back Liverpool -1 on the Asian handicap at 1.877, with the stake refunded if they win by exactly one goal.
Who is at the helm of Fenerbahçe?
Following Ismail Kartal's departure after the loss to Galatasaray, Dirk Kuyt stepped in as caretaker manager, and his inaugural European home fixture pits him against his previous team.
What do we tip for Fenerbahçe vs Liverpool?
Liverpool -1 Asian handicap (1.88)
Who will win Fenerbahçe vs Liverpool?
We estimate: Fenerbahçe win 17%, draw 19%, Liverpool win 64%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 4 November 2026, kick-off: 17:45, venue: Chobani Stadium, Istanbul. Referee: Clément Turpin.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 71% (odds 1.35); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 29% (odds 3.50).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 65% (odds 1.50).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–2 as most likely (9.4%), then 0–2 (7.8%) and 1–3 (7.6%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.