Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 0–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Our Liverpool vs Arsenal prediction
Our preferred Liverpool vs Arsenal bet is under 2.5 goals at 1.95. Arsenal have allowed only 6.2 expected goals and 24 shots on target across their opening eight Premier League games. They have kept five clean sheets, while Liverpool have recorded four in six league matches since the start of September.
The case is based on current defensive performance rather than the fixture’s reputation for high scores. Liverpool’s attack still carries a clear threat through Alexander Isak, who has scored six times in his last six league appearances. Arsenal’s attacking options also depend on late fitness decisions. An early goal or a red card could change the match quickly, so this remains a measured selection rather than a high‑confidence claim.
Pick: under 2.5 total goals in normal time. Decimal odds: 1.95. The bet wins with zero, one or two goals and loses with three or more. That price requires a win rate above 51.28 % to break even; we do not have a sufficiently calibrated estimate to claim a specific edge.
Liverpool vs Arsenal: date, kick‑off time and venue
Liverpool host Arsenal at Anfield on Sunday, 1 November 2026. Kick‑off is 16:30.
The match is a Premier League meeting between two teams near the top of the table. Arsenal enter the round with 21 points from eight games, while Liverpool have 15. A home win would narrow that gap, but the table alone does not determine the best betting market.
Liverpool vs Arsenal betting odds and markets
- Liverpool win: 2.90
- Draw: 3.50
- Arsenal win: 2.33
- Over 2.5 goals: 1.86
- Under 2.5 goals: 1.95
- Arsenal or draw: 1.37
Arsenal are the shortest‑priced side, but favouritism is not the same as value. A simulation gives Arsenal a 41.8 % chance of winning, Liverpool 32.7 % and the draw 25.5 %. At 2.33, an Arsenal win needs 42.92 % to break even. The estimate therefore does not support that price, though one model cannot prove that a bet has no value.
Other markets include total corners over or under 9.5 at 1.83 on either side; Liverpool corners over 4.5 at 1.75 or under at 1.90; and Arsenal corners over 4.5 at 1.70 or under at 1.95. Total cards over 4.5 was 2.00, with under 4.5 at 1.66. Isak over 0.5 offsides was 1.95. Without reliable matchup‑adjusted distributions for those events, none provides a better‑supported case than the goal total.
What form are Liverpool and Arsenal in?
Liverpool’s latest two league matches brought wins over Brentford and Brighton. The 2‑0 victory against Brighton followed a 2‑1 away success at Brentford. Their league record is four wins, three draws and one defeat from eight matches.
Arsenal have won seven of their opening eight league games, including a 2‑0 win over Everton in their most recent league match. Their midweek League Cup exit to Fleetwood came on penalties and should be separated from their league form. The stronger reason to consider the under is their chance prevention, not a narrative about needing to respond.
Liverpool vs Arsenal key pre‑match statistics
- Arsenal clean sheets: 5 in 8 league games
- Arsenal xGA: 6.2 across 8 league games
- Arsenal shots on target faced: 24 across 8 league games
- Liverpool clean sheets: 4 in 6 league games since September
- Isak recent goals: 6 in his last 6 league appearances
These figures describe recent performance, not a guaranteed repeat. Eight league matches are a limited sample, and the quality of opponents, game states and line‑ups affect the numbers. Clean‑sheet counts are supporting evidence, not a direct probability for under 2.5 goals.
Liverpool vs Arsenal head‑to‑head history
The two league meetings last season produced only one goal in total, scored by Dominik Szoboszlai in Liverpool’s home win. That contrasts with the 19 league meetings from January 2016 to May 2025, which all contained at least two goals and averaged 4.1.
Arsenal are winless in their last 13 away Premier League games against Liverpool, with five draws and eight defeats. The record provides context, but it is not a reason to back a home result automatically. Squads, managers and match conditions change, so current defensive data carries more weight in this selection.
Liverpool vs Arsenal team news and key players
Arsenal’s press conference on 30 October left several decisions open. Mikel Arteta said Bukayo Saka was improving but still needed time, while Noni Madueke’s availability would depend on Saturday’s training. Declan Rice, Riccardo Calafiori and Christos Tzolis had trained and could be available if there was no setback. Max Dowman’s red‑card appeal was rejected.
For Liverpool, the latest update gives Dominik Szoboszlai and Victor Munoz a chance of returning. Florian Wirtz had returned from an ankle problem against Chelsea. Older previews describing all of these players as definite absentees should not be used without checking the newer update.
Isak’s scoring run makes him Liverpool’s main individual threat in the current data. Arsenal’s defensive structure is the strongest part of the under case. Confirmed starting line‑ups are not yet available, so no predicted XI is presented as fact.
Match information
- Competition: Premier League
- Venue: Anfield, Liverpool
- Date: Sunday, 1 November 2026
- Kick‑off: 16:30
- Referee: Andy Madley
Liverpool vs Arsenal: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 2.90 | 3.48 | 2.63 |
| Market average | 2.79 | 3.37 | 2.53 |
| Lowest odds | 2.63 | 3.13 | 2.45 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.28 | 1.26 | 75.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.98 | 1.86 | 51.4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.04 | 1.97 | 48.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.30 | 3.06 | 31.0% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.67 | 1.63 | 57.1% |
| BTTS – no | 2.30 | 2.17 | 42.9% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 1/11/26, 13:13. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 5.1%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Liverpool 1–1 Arsenal, roughly 2 goals in total.
- Table: Liverpool 5th (15 points), Arsenal 1st (24 points).
- Form in the competition: Liverpool 4W 3D 1L (11:8), Arsenal 7W 0D 1L (13:5).
- H2H: 41 matches: Liverpool 15W 17D 9L, goals 78–56.
- Absences: Liverpool 6, Arsenal 5.
Who will win Liverpool vs Arsenal?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Liverpool vs Arsenal: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Liverpool vs Arsenal: team news and absences
Liverpool
- C. Bradleyknee injury · will miss the match
- H. EkitikeAchilles tendon injury · will miss the match
- J. Frimpongmuscle injury · will miss the match
- G. Leoniknee injury · will miss the match
- A. Nalloabsence · will miss the match
- D. Szoboszlaimuscle injury · doubtful
Arsenal
- M. Dowmanred card · will miss the match
- B. Sakathigh injury · will miss the match
- W. Salibaback injury · will miss the match
- R. Calafioriabsence · doubtful
- C. Tzolishamstring injury · doubtful
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 9 | 8-0-1 | 14:5 | 24 |
| 2 |  Manchester City | 9 | 7-0-2 | 20:10 | 21 |
| 3 |  Brighton | 9 | 6-1-2 | 24:7 | 19 |
| 4 |  Chelsea | 9 | 5-1-3 | 19:15 | 16 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 9 | 4-3-2 | 11:9 | 15 |
| 6 |  Brentford | 9 | 3-5-1 | 16:9 | 14 |
| 7 |  Everton | 9 | 3-4-2 | 9:9 | 13 |
| 8 |  Bournemouth | 9 | 3-3-3 | 14:13 | 12 |
| 9 |  Tottenham | 9 | 3-3-3 | 10:10 | 12 |
| 10 |  Aston Villa | 9 | 3-3-3 | 10:13 | 12 |
| 11 |  Hull City | 9 | 2-5-2 | 11:10 | 11 |
| 12 |  Leeds | 9 | 2-5-2 | 9:8 | 11 |
| 13 |  Newcastle | 9 | 3-2-4 | 12:15 | 11 |
| 14 |  Ipswich | 9 | 3-2-4 | 14:18 | 11 |
| 15 |  Fulham | 9 | 2-3-4 | 9:11 | 9 |
| 16 |  Coventry | 9 | 3-0-6 | 9:16 | 9 |
| 17 |  Manchester United | 9 | 1-4-4 | 10:15 | 7 |
| 18 |  Crystal Palace | 9 | 2-1-6 | 9:21 | 7 |
| 19 |  Nottingham Forest | 9 | 1-3-5 | 6:12 | 6 |
| 20 |  Sunderland | 9 | 1-2-6 | 7:17 | 5 |
Recent matches
Liverpool
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
LiverpoolLWWLWArsenalWWWWLHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What is the Liverpool vs Arsenal prediction?
Under 2.5 goals is our preferred angle at the observed price of 1.95, with medium confidence and no claimed numerical edge.
Why not back Arsenal to win?
They are favourites, but the 41.8 % estimate is below the 42.92 % break‑even rate at 2.33. That model does not support the price.
Is there a stronger player prop?
None was established from the current evidence. Current shot and off‑side examples were compared with available markets. Missing matchup‑adjusted probabilities prevent a stronger player‑prop claim.
What could change the pick?
A materially lower price, unexpected attacking line‑ups or new fitness news would require a fresh assessment.
What do we tip for Liverpool vs Arsenal?
Fewer than 2.5 goals. (1.95)
Who will win Liverpool vs Arsenal?
We estimate: Liverpool win 34%, draw 28%, Arsenal win 38%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 1 November 2026, kick-off: 16:30, venue: Anfield, Liverpool. Referee: Andrew Madley.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 51% (odds 1.98); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 49% (odds 2.04).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 57% (odds 1.67).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–1 as most likely (12.2%), then 0–1 (9.4%) and 1–0 (8.7%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.