Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 4–3. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Liverpool play Villarreal at home on 20 October 2026 · 20:00 at Anfield (Liverpool); the referee is Szymon Marciniak. For us, Liverpool (62%) are favourites. Our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and a match analysis are below.
Liverpool vs Villarreal: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Liverpool are 8th in the table, on 9 points after 4 matches (3W 0D 1L), and Villarreal are 28th, on 3 points (1W 0D 3L).
- Head to head. From 5 meetings: 4 wins for Liverpool, 1 win for Villarreal and 0 draws, with the goals at 12–6.
What to expect
For us, Liverpool are the more likely winners. We estimate a 2–1 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 2–1 (9.8%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
In the goals market we pick Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.51), and we rate it at 64%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 61% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 64% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 5; Liverpool 4 wins, 0 draws, Villarreal 1 win.
- An average of 3.6 goals per meeting between these teams.
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 64%.
- Out: Liverpool 0, Villarreal 0.
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes (probability 61%, best price 1.57). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Liverpool: no absences. Absent for Villarreal: no absences. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Liverpool vs Villarreal: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 1.62 | 5.00 | 6.20 |
| Market average | 1.54 | 4.54 | 5.75 |
| Lowest odds | 1.46 | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.16 | 1.13 | 82.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.51 | 1.47 | 63.9% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.75 | 2.62 | 36.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.27 | 2.20 | 43.6% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.57 | 1.54 | 60.5% |
| BTTS – no | 2.45 | 2.36 | 39.5% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 20/10/26, 18:00. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 4.7%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Liverpool 2–1 Villarreal, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Liverpool 8th (9 points), Villarreal 28th (3 points).
- H2H: 5 matches: Liverpool 4W 0D 1L, goals 12–6.
- Absences: Liverpool 0, Villarreal 0.
Who will win Liverpool vs Villarreal?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Liverpool vs Villarreal: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Liverpool vs Villarreal: team news and absences
Liverpool
- No reported absences
Villarreal
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 4 | 4-0-0 | 20:5 | 12 |
| 2 |  Real Madrid | 4 | 4-0-0 | 13:7 | 12 |
| 3 |  Arsenal | 4 | 3-1-0 | 8:3 | 10 |
| 4 |  Como | 4 | 3-0-1 | 19:6 | 9 |
| 5 |  Barcelona | 4 | 3-0-1 | 14:6 | 9 |
| 6 |  Aston Villa | 4 | 3-0-1 | 12:6 | 9 |
| 7 |  Manchester City | 4 | 3-0-1 | 12:7 | 9 |
| 8 | Liverpool | 4 | 3-0-1 | 14:10 | 9 |
| 9 |  Club Brugge KV | 4 | 3-0-1 | 11:7 | 9 |
| 10 |  Sporting CP | 4 | 3-0-1 | 8:4 | 9 |
| 11 |  Real Betis | 4 | 3-0-1 | 8:6 | 9 |
| 12 |  Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 3-0-1 | 7:5 | 9 |
| 13 |  Bayern München | 4 | 2-2-0 | 12:5 | 8 |
| 14 |  VfB Stuttgart | 4 | 2-1-1 | 7:4 | 7 |
| 15 |  Inter | 4 | 2-0-2 | 8:6 | 6 |
| 16 |  Lask Linz | 4 | 2-0-2 | 10:9 | 6 |
| 17 |  Manchester United | 4 | 2-0-2 | 8:8 | 6 |
| 18 |  Galatasaray | 4 | 2-0-2 | 8:9 | 6 |
| 19 |  Fenerbahçe | 4 | 1-2-1 | 6:11 | 5 |
| 20 |  AS Roma | 4 | 1-1-2 | 10:8 | 4 |
| 21 |  Shakhtar Donetsk | 4 | 1-1-2 | 4:4 | 4 |
| 22 |  Viking | 4 | 1-1-2 | 9:10 | 4 |
| 23 |  Atlético Madrid | 4 | 1-1-2 | 4:5 | 4 |
| 24 |  PSV Eindhoven | 4 | 1-1-2 | 3:4 | 4 |
| 25 |  Bodø/Glimt | 4 | 1-1-2 | 4:9 | 4 |
| 26 |  FC Porto | 4 | 1-0-3 | 6:7 | 3 |
| 27 |  Napoli | 4 | 1-0-3 | 6:11 | 3 |
| 28 | Villarreal | 4 | 1-0-3 | 8:14 | 3 |
| 29 |  AEK Athens FC | 4 | 1-0-3 | 5:11 | 3 |
| 30 |  RB Leipzig | 4 | 1-0-3 | 5:11 | 3 |
| 31 |  Sabah FA | 4 | 1-0-3 | 4:10 | 3 |
| 32 |  Feyenoord | 4 | 1-0-3 | 4:11 | 3 |
| 33 |  Lens | 4 | 1-0-3 | 4:16 | 3 |
| 34 |  Slavia Praha | 4 | 0-1-3 | 5:9 | 1 |
| 35 |  Lille | 4 | 0-1-3 | 4:10 | 1 |
| 36 |  Slovan Bratislava | 4 | 0-0-4 | 1:17 | 0 |
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Questions and answers
What do we tip for Liverpool vs Villarreal?
Villarreal +1.25 (Asian handicap) (1.88); Over 2.5 goals (1.51).
Who will win Liverpool vs Villarreal?
We estimate: Liverpool win 62%, draw 21%, Villarreal win 17%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 20 October 2026, kick-off: 20:00, venue: Anfield, Liverpool. Referee: Szymon Marciniak.
Who will be missing?
Liverpool: no absences. Villarreal: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 64% (odds 1.51); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 36% (odds 2.75).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 61% (odds 1.57).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 2–1 as most likely (9.8%), then 1–1 (8.9%) and 2–0 (8.9%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.