Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 1–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Fortuna Sittard play Excelsior at home on 25 October 2026 · 11:15 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion (Sitard); the referee is Ingmar Oostrom. For us, there is no clear favourite. Our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and a match analysis are below.
Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Fortuna Sittard are 6th in the table, on 19 points after 11 matches (5W 4D 2L), and Excelsior are 15th, on 11 points (3W 2D 6L).
- Attack and defence. On average Fortuna Sittard score 1.8 goals a match in the competition and concede 1.9; for Excelsior the figures are 1.8 scored and 2.0 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Fortuna Sittard: 4W 3D 2L, goals 16–17; Excelsior: 3W 2D 4L, goals 16–18.
- Head to head. From 9 meetings: 5 wins for Fortuna Sittard, 2 wins for Excelsior and 2 draws, with the goals at 16–11.
What to expect
We see an evenly matched game, with a 1–1 score estimate, roughly 2 goals in all, and 1–1 (11.7%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
What stands out is that the table favours the Fortuna Sittard, whereas the betting market leans slightly towards the away side. When the indicators disagree like this, the match is difficult to read, and a more careful bet is the sensible choice.
In the goals market we pick Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.47), and we rate it at 66%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 60% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 55% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 9; Fortuna Sittard 5 wins, 2 draws, Excelsior 2 wins.
- An average of 3.0 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: Fortuna Sittard 16–17, Excelsior 16–18.
- Expected: roughly 2 goals; over 2.5 goals: 55%.
- Out: Fortuna Sittard 9, Excelsior 0.
Alternative tip: Draw or Excelsior (X2)
Alternative tip: Draw or Excelsior (X2) (probability 64%, best price 1.50). With roughly 2 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Fortuna Sittard: R. Bayram, J. Dahlhaus, I. Marquez, Y. Oukili, R. Guth, M. Ihattaren, E. Michut, O. Romeny, L. Zeefuik. Absent for Excelsior: no absences. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 2.72 | 3.59 | 2.63 |
| Market average | 2.64 | 3.44 | 2.57 |
| Lowest odds | 2.50 | 3.30 | 2.50 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.24 | 1.21 | 77.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.79 | 1.73 | 54.7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.15 | 2.09 | 45.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.90 | 2.75 | 34.0% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.57 | 1.55 | 59.7% |
| BTTS – no | 2.40 | 2.30 | 40.3% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 25/10/26, 09:03. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 6.0%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Fortuna Sittard 1–1 Excelsior, roughly 2 goals in total.
- Table: Fortuna Sittard 6th (19 points), Excelsior 15th (11 points).
- Form in the competition: Fortuna Sittard 4W 3D 2L (16:17), Excelsior 3W 2D 4L (16:18).
- H2H: 9 matches: Fortuna Sittard 5W 2D 2L, goals 16–11.
- Absences: Fortuna Sittard 9, Excelsior 0.
Who will win Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior: team news and absences
Fortuna Sittard
- R. Bayramknee injury · will miss the match
- J. Dahlhausnot in the squad · will miss the match
- I. Marquezinjury · will miss the match
- Y. Oukiligroin injury · will miss the match
- R. Guthnot in the squad · doubtful
- M. Ihattareninjury · doubtful
- E. Michutnot in the squad · doubtful
- O. Romenyankle injury · doubtful
- L. Zeefuiknot in the squad · doubtful
Excelsior
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Feyenoord | 11 | 7-4-0 | 33:12 | 25 |
| 2 |  Ajax | 11 | 7-3-1 | 30:13 | 24 |
| 3 |  PSV Eindhoven | 11 | 7-2-2 | 35:13 | 23 |
| 4 |  Twente | 11 | 7-2-2 | 28:10 | 23 |
| 5 |  AZ Alkmaar | 11 | 6-2-3 | 20:13 | 20 |
| 6 | Fortuna Sittard | 11 | 5-4-2 | 18:18 | 19 |
| 7 |  Heerenveen | 11 | 5-3-3 | 19:13 | 18 |
| 8 |  Groningen | 11 | 4-3-4 | 26:24 | 15 |
| 9 |  Cambuur | 11 | 4-3-4 | 23:22 | 15 |
| 10 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 11 | 3-5-3 | 23:27 | 14 |
| 11 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 11 | 3-3-5 | 20:26 | 12 |
| 12 |  Utrecht | 11 | 3-3-5 | 19:31 | 12 |
| 13 |  NEC Nijmegen | 11 | 2-5-4 | 17:19 | 11 |
| 14 |  PEC Zwolle | 11 | 3-2-6 | 12:23 | 11 |
| 15 | Excelsior | 11 | 3-2-6 | 16:28 | 11 |
| 16 |  Telstar | 11 | 2-3-6 | 16:23 | 9 |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 11 | 1-3-7 | 13:24 | 6 |
| 18 |  Willem II | 11 | 0-2-9 | 10:39 | 2 |
Recent matches
Fortuna Sittard
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
Fortuna SittardDWDDWExcelsiorLLLLDHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior?
Over 2.5 goals (1.79); Draw or Excelsior (X2) (1.50).
Who will win Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior?
We estimate: Fortuna Sittard win 36%, draw 27%, Excelsior win 37%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 25 October 2026, kick-off: 11:15, venue: Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Sitard. Referee: Ingmar Oostrom.
Who will be missing?
Fortuna Sittard: R. Bayram, J. Dahlhaus, I. Marquez, Y. Oukili, R. Guth, M. Ihattaren, E. Michut, O. Romeny, L. Zeefuik. Excelsior: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 55% (odds 1.79); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 45% (odds 2.15).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 60% (odds 1.57).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–1 as most likely (11.7%), then 1–2 (8.5%) and 0–1 (8.4%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.