Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 4–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Heerenveen v Excelsior: 16 October 2026 · 19:00 at Abe Lenstra Stadion (Heerenveen), with Robin Hensgens, Netherlands refereeing. We have Heerenveen (60%) down as favourites. Scroll down for the tip, the chances of each outcome, absences and our breakdown of the game.
Heerenveen vs Excelsior: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Heerenveen are 7th in the table, on 18 points after 11 matches (5W 3D 3L), and Excelsior are 15th, on 11 points (3W 2D 6L).
What to expect
For us, Heerenveen are the more likely winners. We estimate a 2–1 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 2–1 (9.6%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
In the goals market we pick Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.84), and we rate it at 52%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 65% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 68% chance.
Prediction summary
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 68%.
- Out: Heerenveen 0, Excelsior 0.
Alternative tip: Over 3.5 goals
Alternative tip: Over 3.5 goals (probability 48%, best price 2.08). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Heerenveen: no absences. Absent for Excelsior: no absences. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Heerenveen vs Excelsior: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 1.60 | 4.60 | 5.50 |
| Market average | 1.56 | 4.44 | 5.20 |
| Lowest odds | 1.54 | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.13 | 1.08 | 85.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.43 | 1.37 | 67.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.94 | 2.86 | 32.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.08 | 1.97 | 47.8% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.44 | 1.43 | 64.5% |
| BTTS – no | 2.63 | 2.60 | 35.5% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 16/10/26, 17:16. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 5.8%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Heerenveen 2–1 Excelsior, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Heerenveen 7th (18 points), Excelsior 15th (11 points).
- Absences: Heerenveen 0, Excelsior 0.
Who will win Heerenveen vs Excelsior?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Heerenveen vs Excelsior: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Heerenveen vs Excelsior: team news and absences
Heerenveen
- No reported absences
Excelsior
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Feyenoord | 11 | 7-4-0 | 33:12 | 25 |
| 2 |  Ajax | 11 | 7-3-1 | 30:13 | 24 |
| 3 |  PSV Eindhoven | 11 | 7-2-2 | 35:13 | 23 |
| 4 |  Twente | 11 | 7-2-2 | 28:10 | 23 |
| 5 |  AZ Alkmaar | 11 | 6-2-3 | 20:13 | 20 |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 11 | 5-4-2 | 18:18 | 19 |
| 7 | Heerenveen | 11 | 5-3-3 | 19:13 | 18 |
| 8 |  Groningen | 11 | 4-3-4 | 26:24 | 15 |
| 9 |  Cambuur | 11 | 4-3-4 | 23:22 | 15 |
| 10 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 11 | 3-5-3 | 23:27 | 14 |
| 11 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 11 | 3-3-5 | 20:26 | 12 |
| 12 |  Utrecht | 11 | 3-3-5 | 19:31 | 12 |
| 13 |  NEC Nijmegen | 11 | 2-5-4 | 17:19 | 11 |
| 14 |  PEC Zwolle | 11 | 3-2-6 | 12:23 | 11 |
| 15 | Excelsior | 11 | 3-2-6 | 16:28 | 11 |
| 16 |  Telstar | 11 | 2-3-6 | 16:23 | 9 |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 11 | 1-3-7 | 13:24 | 6 |
| 18 |  Willem II | 11 | 0-2-9 | 10:39 | 2 |
Recent matches
Heerenveen
Home and away
Returns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Heerenveen vs Excelsior?
Heerenveen -1 (Asian handicap) (1.98); Under 3.5 goals (1.84).
Who will win Heerenveen vs Excelsior?
We estimate: Heerenveen win 60%, draw 21%, Excelsior win 18%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 16 October 2026, kick-off: 19:00, venue: Abe Lenstra Stadion, Heerenveen. Referee: Robin Hensgens, Netherlands.
Who will be missing?
Heerenveen: no absences. Excelsior: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 68% (odds 1.43); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 32% (odds 2.94).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 65% (odds 1.44).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 2–1 as most likely (9.6%), then 1–1 (8.6%) and 2–0 (8.0%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.