Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 2–2. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
NEC Nijmegen v Fortuna Sittard: 18 October 2026 · 19:00 at Stadion de Goffert (Nijmegen), with Alex Bos refereeing. We have NEC Nijmegen (55%) down as favourites. Scroll down for the tip, the chances of each outcome, absences and our breakdown of the game.
NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. NEC Nijmegen are 13th in the table, on 11 points after 11 matches (2W 5D 4L), and Fortuna Sittard are 6th, on 19 points (5W 4D 2L).
What to expect
For us, NEC Nijmegen are the more likely winners. We estimate a 2–1 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 2–1 (9.7%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
What stands out is that the table favours the Fortuna Sittard, whereas the betting market leans slightly towards the home side. When the indicators disagree like this, the match is difficult to read, and a more careful bet is the sensible choice.
In the goals market we pick Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.48), and we rate it at 65%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 63% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 65% chance.
Prediction summary
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 65%.
- Out: NEC Nijmegen 0, Fortuna Sittard 0.
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes (probability 63%, best price 1.50). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for NEC Nijmegen: no absences. Absent for Fortuna Sittard: no absences. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 1.76 | 4.33 | 4.38 |
| Market average | 1.73 | 4.10 | 4.25 |
| Lowest odds | 1.70 | 3.90 | 4.00 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.14 | 1.11 | 83.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.48 | 1.43 | 64.9% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.85 | 2.65 | 35.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.17 | 2.11 | 44.6% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.50 | 1.46 | 63.5% |
| BTTS – no | 2.63 | 2.54 | 36.5% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 18/10/26, 16:40. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 5.8%.
At a glance
- Likely result: NEC Nijmegen 2–1 Fortuna Sittard, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: NEC Nijmegen 13th (11 points), Fortuna Sittard 6th (19 points).
- Absences: NEC Nijmegen 0, Fortuna Sittard 0.
Who will win NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard: team news and absences
NEC Nijmegen
- No reported absences
Fortuna Sittard
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Feyenoord | 11 | 7-4-0 | 33:12 | 25 |
| 2 |  Ajax | 11 | 7-3-1 | 30:13 | 24 |
| 3 |  PSV Eindhoven | 11 | 7-2-2 | 35:13 | 23 |
| 4 |  Twente | 11 | 7-2-2 | 28:10 | 23 |
| 5 |  AZ Alkmaar | 11 | 6-2-3 | 20:13 | 20 |
| 6 | Fortuna Sittard | 11 | 5-4-2 | 18:18 | 19 |
| 7 |  Heerenveen | 11 | 5-3-3 | 19:13 | 18 |
| 8 |  Groningen | 11 | 4-3-4 | 26:24 | 15 |
| 9 |  Cambuur | 11 | 4-3-4 | 23:22 | 15 |
| 10 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 11 | 3-5-3 | 23:27 | 14 |
| 11 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 11 | 3-3-5 | 20:26 | 12 |
| 12 |  Utrecht | 11 | 3-3-5 | 19:31 | 12 |
| 13 | NEC Nijmegen | 11 | 2-5-4 | 17:19 | 11 |
| 14 |  PEC Zwolle | 11 | 3-2-6 | 12:23 | 11 |
| 15 |  Excelsior | 11 | 3-2-6 | 16:28 | 11 |
| 16 |  Telstar | 11 | 2-3-6 | 16:23 | 9 |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 11 | 1-3-7 | 13:24 | 6 |
| 18 |  Willem II | 11 | 0-2-9 | 10:39 | 2 |
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NEC Nijmegen
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Questions and answers
What do we tip for NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard?
Fortuna Sittard +0.75 (Asian handicap) (1.94); Over 2.5 goals (1.48).
Who will win NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard?
We estimate: NEC Nijmegen win 55%, draw 23%, Fortuna Sittard win 22%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 18 October 2026, kick-off: 19:00, venue: Stadion de Goffert, Nijmegen. Referee: Alex Bos.
Who will be missing?
NEC Nijmegen: no absences. Fortuna Sittard: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 65% (odds 1.48); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 35% (odds 2.85).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 63% (odds 1.50).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 2–1 as most likely (9.7%), then 1–1 (9.5%) and 2–0 (7.8%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
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