Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 2–3. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Groningen play Sparta Rotterdam at home on 1 November 2026 · 15:45 at Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion (Groningen); the referee is Martijn Vos. For us, Groningen (54%) are favourites. Our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and a match analysis are below.
Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Groningen are 8th in the table, on 15 points after 11 matches (4W 3D 4L), and Sparta Rotterdam are 11th, on 12 points (3W 3D 5L).
- Attack and defence. On average Groningen score 2.4 goals a match in the competition and concede 2.1; for Sparta Rotterdam the figures are 1.7 scored and 2.4 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Groningen: 4W 3D 3L, goals 24–21; Sparta Rotterdam: 2W 3D 5L, goals 17–24.
- Head to head. From 18 meetings: 5 wins for Groningen, 10 wins for Sparta Rotterdam and 3 draws, with the goals at 24–33.
What to expect
For us, Groningen are the more likely winners. We estimate a 2–1 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 2–1 (9.6%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
In the goals market we pick Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.45), and we rate it at 66%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 65% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 66% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 18; Groningen 5 wins, 3 draws, Sparta Rotterdam 10 wins.
- An average of 3.2 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: Groningen 24–21, Sparta Rotterdam 17–24.
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 66%.
- Out: Groningen 3, Sparta Rotterdam 1.
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals (probability 55%, best price 1.79). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Groningen: M. Jeng, T. Mercera, E. van der Laan. Absent for Sparta Rotterdam: S. Mito. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 1.80 | 4.38 | 4.29 |
| Market average | 1.74 | 4.13 | 4.04 |
| Lowest odds | 1.70 | 3.68 | 3.57 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.14 | 1.11 | 84.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.45 | 1.42 | 66.1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.89 | 2.76 | 33.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.11 | 2.08 | 45.4% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.45 | 1.42 | 65.0% |
| BTTS – no | 2.75 | 2.64 | 35.0% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 1/11/26, 13:02. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 6.4%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Groningen 2–1 Sparta Rotterdam, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Groningen 8th (15 points), Sparta Rotterdam 11th (12 points).
- Form in the competition: Groningen 4W 3D 3L (24:21), Sparta Rotterdam 2W 3D 5L (17:24).
- H2H: 18 matches: Groningen 5W 3D 10L, goals 24–33.
- Absences: Groningen 3, Sparta Rotterdam 1.
Who will win Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam: team news and absences
Groningen
- M. Jengabsence · will miss the match
- T. Mercerainjury · will miss the match
- E. van der Laaninjury · doubtful
Sparta Rotterdam
- S. Mitoinjury · will miss the match
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Feyenoord | 11 | 7-4-0 | 33:12 | 25 |
| 2 |  Ajax | 11 | 7-3-1 | 30:13 | 24 |
| 3 |  PSV Eindhoven | 11 | 7-2-2 | 35:13 | 23 |
| 4 |  Twente | 11 | 7-2-2 | 28:10 | 23 |
| 5 |  AZ Alkmaar | 11 | 6-2-3 | 20:13 | 20 |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 11 | 5-4-2 | 18:18 | 19 |
| 7 |  Heerenveen | 11 | 5-3-3 | 19:13 | 18 |
| 8 | Groningen | 11 | 4-3-4 | 26:24 | 15 |
| 9 |  Cambuur | 11 | 4-3-4 | 23:22 | 15 |
| 10 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 11 | 3-5-3 | 23:27 | 14 |
| 11 | Sparta Rotterdam | 11 | 3-3-5 | 20:26 | 12 |
| 12 |  Utrecht | 11 | 3-3-5 | 19:31 | 12 |
| 13 |  NEC Nijmegen | 11 | 2-5-4 | 17:19 | 11 |
| 14 |  PEC Zwolle | 11 | 3-2-6 | 12:23 | 11 |
| 15 |  Excelsior | 11 | 3-2-6 | 16:28 | 11 |
| 16 |  Telstar | 11 | 2-3-6 | 16:23 | 9 |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 11 | 1-3-7 | 13:24 | 6 |
| 18 |  Willem II | 11 | 0-2-9 | 10:39 | 2 |
Recent matches
Groningen
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
GroningenLDLWWSparta RotterdamWLWDLHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Sparta Rotterdam +0.75 (Asian handicap) (1.97); Over 2.5 goals (1.45).
Who will win Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
We estimate: Groningen win 54%, draw 23%, Sparta Rotterdam win 23%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 1 November 2026, kick-off: 15:45, venue: Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion, Groningen. Referee: Martijn Vos.
Who will be missing?
Groningen: M. Jeng, T. Mercera, E. van der Laan. Sparta Rotterdam: S. Mito. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 66% (odds 1.45); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 34% (odds 2.89).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 65% (odds 1.45).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 2–1 as most likely (9.6%), then 1–1 (9.3%) and 2–0 (7.4%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.