Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 3–2. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
It is Sparta Rotterdam against Willem II on 17 October 2026 · 20:00 at Sparta Stadium Het Kasteel (Rotterdam), and Serdar Gözübüyük will referee. Sparta Rotterdam (61%) start as favourites in our view. Below you can read our tip, the result probabilities, team news and analysis.
Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Sparta Rotterdam are 11th in the table, on 12 points after 11 matches (3W 3D 5L), and Willem II are 18th, on 2 points (0W 2D 9L).
What to expect
For us, Sparta Rotterdam are the more likely winners. We estimate a 2–1 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 2–1 (9.9%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
In the goals market we pick Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.50), and we rate it at 64%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 60% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 64% chance.
Prediction summary
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 64%.
- Out: Sparta Rotterdam 0, Willem II 0.
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes (probability 60%, best price 1.57). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Sparta Rotterdam: no absences. Absent for Willem II: no absences. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 1.61 | 4.62 | 5.50 |
| Market average | 1.55 | 4.41 | 5.23 |
| Lowest odds | 1.52 | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.15 | 1.12 | 83.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.50 | 1.46 | 63.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.68 | 2.55 | 36.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.27 | 2.20 | 42.8% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.57 | 1.53 | 60.2% |
| BTTS – no | 2.38 | 2.32 | 39.8% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 17/10/26, 18:00. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 6.3%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Sparta Rotterdam 2–1 Willem II, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Sparta Rotterdam 11th (12 points), Willem II 18th (2 points).
- Absences: Sparta Rotterdam 0, Willem II 0.
Who will win Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II: team news and absences
Sparta Rotterdam
- No reported absences
Willem II
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Feyenoord | 11 | 7-4-0 | 33:12 | 25 |
| 2 |  Ajax | 11 | 7-3-1 | 30:13 | 24 |
| 3 |  PSV Eindhoven | 11 | 7-2-2 | 35:13 | 23 |
| 4 |  Twente | 11 | 7-2-2 | 28:10 | 23 |
| 5 |  AZ Alkmaar | 11 | 6-2-3 | 20:13 | 20 |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 11 | 5-4-2 | 18:18 | 19 |
| 7 |  Heerenveen | 11 | 5-3-3 | 19:13 | 18 |
| 8 |  Groningen | 11 | 4-3-4 | 26:24 | 15 |
| 9 |  Cambuur | 11 | 4-3-4 | 23:22 | 15 |
| 10 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 11 | 3-5-3 | 23:27 | 14 |
| 11 | Sparta Rotterdam | 11 | 3-3-5 | 20:26 | 12 |
| 12 |  Utrecht | 11 | 3-3-5 | 19:31 | 12 |
| 13 |  NEC Nijmegen | 11 | 2-5-4 | 17:19 | 11 |
| 14 |  PEC Zwolle | 11 | 3-2-6 | 12:23 | 11 |
| 15 |  Excelsior | 11 | 3-2-6 | 16:28 | 11 |
| 16 |  Telstar | 11 | 2-3-6 | 16:23 | 9 |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 11 | 1-3-7 | 13:24 | 6 |
| 18 | Willem II | 11 | 0-2-9 | 10:39 | 2 |
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Questions and answers
What do we tip for Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II?
Willem II +1.25 (Asian handicap) (1.73); Over 2.5 goals (1.50).
Who will win Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II?
We estimate: Sparta Rotterdam win 61%, draw 21%, Willem II win 18%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 17 October 2026, kick-off: 20:00, venue: Sparta Stadium Het Kasteel, Rotterdam. Referee: Serdar Gözübüyük.
Who will be missing?
Sparta Rotterdam: no absences. Willem II: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 64% (odds 1.50); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 36% (odds 2.68).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 60% (odds 1.57).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 2–1 as most likely (9.9%), then 1–1 (9.2%) and 2–0 (9.0%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
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