Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 2–2. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
NEC Nijmegen v Groningen: 25 October 2026 · 13:30 at Stadion de Goffert (Nijmegen), with Martin Van den Kerkhof refereeing. We have NEC Nijmegen (46%) down as favourites. Scroll down for the tip, the chances of each outcome, absences and our breakdown of the game.
NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. NEC Nijmegen are 13th in the table, on 11 points after 11 matches (2W 5D 4L), and Groningen are 8th, on 15 points (4W 3D 4L).
- Attack and defence. On average NEC Nijmegen score 1.7 goals a match in the competition and concede 1.8; for Groningen the figures are 2.4 scored and 2.1 conceded.
- Form in the competition. NEC Nijmegen: 2W 4D 3L, goals 15–16; Groningen: 4W 2D 3L, goals 22–19.
- Head to head. From 24 meetings: 10 wins for NEC Nijmegen, 7 wins for Groningen and 7 draws, with the goals at 47–39.
What to expect
We see an evenly matched game, with a 2–2 score estimate, roughly 4 goals in all, and 1–1 (9.3%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
What stands out is that the table favours the Groningen, whereas the betting market leans slightly towards the home side. When the indicators disagree like this, the match is difficult to read, and a more careful bet is the sensible choice.
In the goals market we pick Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.88), and we rate it at 52%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 69% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 67% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 24; NEC Nijmegen 10 wins, 7 draws, Groningen 7 wins.
- An average of 3.6 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: NEC Nijmegen 15–16, Groningen 22–19.
- Expected: roughly 4 goals; over 2.5 goals: 67%.
- Out: NEC Nijmegen 5, Groningen 3.
Alternative tip: Over 3.5 goals
Alternative tip: Over 3.5 goals (probability 48%, best price 2.05). With roughly 4 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for NEC Nijmegen: B. Nuytinck, P. Sandler, D. Tadic, E. Mor, Y. Moslih. Absent for Groningen: M. Jeng, T. Mercera, E. van der Laan. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 2.10 | 4.10 | 3.31 |
| Market average | 2.06 | 3.94 | 3.17 |
| Lowest odds | 2.00 | 3.70 | 3.00 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.13 | 1.10 | 85.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.42 | 1.39 | 67.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.00 | 2.88 | 32.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.05 | 1.97 | 47.8% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.36 | 1.35 | 68.6% |
| BTTS – no | 3.00 | 2.95 | 31.4% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 25/10/26, 12:59. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 5.6%.
At a glance
- Likely result: NEC Nijmegen 1–1 Groningen, roughly 4 goals in total.
- Table: NEC Nijmegen 13th (11 points), Groningen 8th (15 points).
- Form in the competition: NEC Nijmegen 2W 4D 3L (15:16), Groningen 4W 2D 3L (22:19).
- H2H: 24 matches: NEC Nijmegen 10W 7D 7L, goals 47–39.
- Absences: NEC Nijmegen 5, Groningen 3.
Who will win NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen: team news and absences
NEC Nijmegen
- B. Nuytinckankle injury · will miss the match
- P. Sandlerinjury · will miss the match
- D. Tadiccalf injury · will miss the match
- E. Morgroin injury · doubtful
- Y. Moslihnot in the squad · doubtful
Groningen
- M. Jengabsence · will miss the match
- T. Mercerainjury · will miss the match
- E. van der Laaninjury · doubtful
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Feyenoord | 11 | 7-4-0 | 33:12 | 25 |
| 2 |  Ajax | 11 | 7-3-1 | 30:13 | 24 |
| 3 |  PSV Eindhoven | 11 | 7-2-2 | 35:13 | 23 |
| 4 |  Twente | 11 | 7-2-2 | 28:10 | 23 |
| 5 |  AZ Alkmaar | 11 | 6-2-3 | 20:13 | 20 |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 11 | 5-4-2 | 18:18 | 19 |
| 7 |  Heerenveen | 11 | 5-3-3 | 19:13 | 18 |
| 8 | Groningen | 11 | 4-3-4 | 26:24 | 15 |
| 9 |  Cambuur | 11 | 4-3-4 | 23:22 | 15 |
| 10 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 11 | 3-5-3 | 23:27 | 14 |
| 11 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 11 | 3-3-5 | 20:26 | 12 |
| 12 |  Utrecht | 11 | 3-3-5 | 19:31 | 12 |
| 13 | NEC Nijmegen | 11 | 2-5-4 | 17:19 | 11 |
| 14 |  PEC Zwolle | 11 | 3-2-6 | 12:23 | 11 |
| 15 |  Excelsior | 11 | 3-2-6 | 16:28 | 11 |
| 16 |  Telstar | 11 | 2-3-6 | 16:23 | 9 |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 11 | 1-3-7 | 13:24 | 6 |
| 18 |  Willem II | 11 | 0-2-9 | 10:39 | 2 |
Recent matches
NEC Nijmegen
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
NEC NijmegenLDDDDGroningenLDLWWHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen?
Groningen +0.5 (Asian handicap) (1.85); Under 3.5 goals (1.88).
Who will win NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen?
We estimate: NEC Nijmegen win 46%, draw 24%, Groningen win 30%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 25 October 2026, kick-off: 13:30, venue: Stadion de Goffert, Nijmegen. Referee: Martin Van den Kerkhof.
Who will be missing?
NEC Nijmegen: B. Nuytinck, P. Sandler, D. Tadic, E. Mor, Y. Moslih. Groningen: M. Jeng, T. Mercera, E. van der Laan. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 67% (odds 1.42); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 33% (odds 3.00).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 69% (odds 1.36).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–1 as most likely (9.3%), then 2–1 (8.9%) and 1–2 (7.2%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.