Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 1–2. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Sparta Rotterdam v Ajax: 25 October 2026 · 15:45 at Sparta Stadium Het Kasteel (Rotterdam), with Danny Makkelie refereeing. We have Ajax (66%) down as favourites. Scroll down for the tip, the chances of each outcome, absences and our breakdown of the game.
Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Sparta Rotterdam are 11th in the table, on 12 points after 11 matches (3W 3D 5L), and Ajax are 2nd, on 24 points (7W 3D 1L).
- Attack and defence. On average Sparta Rotterdam score 1.8 goals a match in the competition and concede 2.4; for Ajax the figures are 3.0 scored and 1.3 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Sparta Rotterdam: 2W 3D 4L, goals 16–22; Ajax: 5W 3D 1L, goals 27–12.
- Head to head. From 19 meetings: 0 wins for Sparta Rotterdam, 16 wins for Ajax and 3 draws, with the goals at 16–49.
What to expect
For us, Ajax are the more likely winners. We estimate a 1–2 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 1–2 (9.4%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
In the goals market we pick Both teams to score (odds 1.50), and we rate it at 63%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 63% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 71% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 19; Sparta Rotterdam 0 wins, 3 draws, Ajax 16 wins.
- An average of 3.4 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: Sparta Rotterdam 16–22, Ajax 27–12.
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 71%.
- Out: Sparta Rotterdam 1, Ajax 7.
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes (probability 63%, best price 1.50). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Sparta Rotterdam: S. Mito. Absent for Ajax: S. Adingra, Caio Henrique, K. Dolberg, O. Edvardsen, A. Gaaei, S. Berghuis, D. Blind. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 6.30 | 5.42 | 1.48 |
| Market average | 6.01 | 5.08 | 1.44 |
| Lowest odds | 5.50 | 4.80 | 1.40 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.11 | 1.08 | 86.5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.36 | 1.33 | 70.6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.40 | 3.20 | 29.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 1.91 | 1.86 | 50.7% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.50 | 1.46 | 63.3% |
| BTTS – no | 2.60 | 2.52 | 36.7% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 25/10/26, 12:59. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 6.1%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Sparta Rotterdam 1–2 Ajax, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Sparta Rotterdam 11th (12 points), Ajax 2nd (24 points).
- Form in the competition: Sparta Rotterdam 2W 3D 4L (16:22), Ajax 5W 3D 1L (27:12).
- H2H: 19 matches: Sparta Rotterdam 0W 3D 16L, goals 16–49.
- Absences: Sparta Rotterdam 1, Ajax 7.
Who will win Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax: team news and absences
Sparta Rotterdam
- S. Mitoinjury · will miss the match
Ajax
- S. Adingraabsence · will miss the match
- Caio Henriquethigh injury · will miss the match
- K. Dolbergknee injury · will miss the match
- O. Edvardsennot in the squad · will miss the match
- A. Gaaeiinjury · will miss the match
- S. Berghuisinjury · doubtful
- D. Blindback injury · doubtful
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Feyenoord | 11 | 7-4-0 | 33:12 | 25 |
| 2 | Ajax | 11 | 7-3-1 | 30:13 | 24 |
| 3 |  PSV Eindhoven | 11 | 7-2-2 | 35:13 | 23 |
| 4 |  Twente | 11 | 7-2-2 | 28:10 | 23 |
| 5 |  AZ Alkmaar | 11 | 6-2-3 | 20:13 | 20 |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 11 | 5-4-2 | 18:18 | 19 |
| 7 |  Heerenveen | 11 | 5-3-3 | 19:13 | 18 |
| 8 |  Groningen | 11 | 4-3-4 | 26:24 | 15 |
| 9 |  Cambuur | 11 | 4-3-4 | 23:22 | 15 |
| 10 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 11 | 3-5-3 | 23:27 | 14 |
| 11 | Sparta Rotterdam | 11 | 3-3-5 | 20:26 | 12 |
| 12 |  Utrecht | 11 | 3-3-5 | 19:31 | 12 |
| 13 |  NEC Nijmegen | 11 | 2-5-4 | 17:19 | 11 |
| 14 |  PEC Zwolle | 11 | 3-2-6 | 12:23 | 11 |
| 15 |  Excelsior | 11 | 3-2-6 | 16:28 | 11 |
| 16 |  Telstar | 11 | 2-3-6 | 16:23 | 9 |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 11 | 1-3-7 | 13:24 | 6 |
| 18 |  Willem II | 11 | 0-2-9 | 10:39 | 2 |
Recent matches
Sparta Rotterdam
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
Sparta RotterdamWLWDLAjaxWWWDDHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax?
Ajax -1.25 (Asian handicap) (1.93); Both teams to score (1.50).
Who will win Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax?
We estimate: Sparta Rotterdam win 16%, draw 19%, Ajax win 66%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 25 October 2026, kick-off: 15:45, venue: Sparta Stadium Het Kasteel, Rotterdam. Referee: Danny Makkelie.
Who will be missing?
Sparta Rotterdam: S. Mito. Ajax: S. Adingra, Caio Henrique, K. Dolberg, O. Edvardsen, A. Gaaei, S. Berghuis, D. Blind. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 71% (odds 1.36); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 29% (odds 3.40).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 63% (odds 1.50).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–2 as most likely (9.4%), then 0–2 (8.2%) and 1–3 (7.7%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.