Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 2–5. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Groningen v Ajax: 18 October 2026 · 15:45 at Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion (Groningen), with Dennis Higler refereeing. We have Ajax (52%) down as favourites. Scroll down for the tip, the chances of each outcome, absences and our breakdown of the game.
Groningen vs Ajax: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Groningen are 8th in the table, on 15 points after 11 matches (4W 3D 4L), and Ajax are 2nd, on 24 points (7W 3D 1L).
What to expect
For us, Ajax are the more likely winners. We estimate a 1–2 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 1–2 (9.2%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
In the goals market we pick Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.96), and we rate it at 50%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 68% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 70% chance.
Prediction summary
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 70%.
- Out: Groningen 0, Ajax 0.
Alternative tip: Over 3.5 goals
Alternative tip: Over 3.5 goals (probability 50%, best price 1.93). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Groningen: no absences. Absent for Ajax: no absences. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Groningen vs Ajax: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 4.10 | 4.37 | 1.85 |
| Market average | 3.80 | 4.17 | 1.81 |
| Lowest odds | 3.60 | 3.90 | 1.75 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.11 | 1.08 | 86.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.36 | 1.33 | 69.7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.30 | 3.07 | 30.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 1.93 | 1.88 | 49.9% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.40 | 1.36 | 67.9% |
| BTTS – no | 3.00 | 2.87 | 32.1% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 18/10/26, 13:00. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 5.8%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Groningen 1–2 Ajax, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Groningen 8th (15 points), Ajax 2nd (24 points).
- Absences: Groningen 0, Ajax 0.
Who will win Groningen vs Ajax?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Groningen vs Ajax: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Groningen vs Ajax: team news and absences
Groningen
- No reported absences
Ajax
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Feyenoord | 11 | 7-4-0 | 33:12 | 25 |
| 2 | Ajax | 11 | 7-3-1 | 30:13 | 24 |
| 3 |  PSV Eindhoven | 11 | 7-2-2 | 35:13 | 23 |
| 4 |  Twente | 11 | 7-2-2 | 28:10 | 23 |
| 5 |  AZ Alkmaar | 11 | 6-2-3 | 20:13 | 20 |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 11 | 5-4-2 | 18:18 | 19 |
| 7 |  Heerenveen | 11 | 5-3-3 | 19:13 | 18 |
| 8 | Groningen | 11 | 4-3-4 | 26:24 | 15 |
| 9 |  Cambuur | 11 | 4-3-4 | 23:22 | 15 |
| 10 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 11 | 3-5-3 | 23:27 | 14 |
| 11 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 11 | 3-3-5 | 20:26 | 12 |
| 12 |  Utrecht | 11 | 3-3-5 | 19:31 | 12 |
| 13 |  NEC Nijmegen | 11 | 2-5-4 | 17:19 | 11 |
| 14 |  PEC Zwolle | 11 | 3-2-6 | 12:23 | 11 |
| 15 |  Excelsior | 11 | 3-2-6 | 16:28 | 11 |
| 16 |  Telstar | 11 | 2-3-6 | 16:23 | 9 |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 11 | 1-3-7 | 13:24 | 6 |
| 18 |  Willem II | 11 | 0-2-9 | 10:39 | 2 |
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Questions and answers
What do we tip for Groningen vs Ajax?
Groningen +0.75 (Asian handicap) (1.88); Under 3.5 goals (1.96).
Who will win Groningen vs Ajax?
We estimate: Groningen win 25%, draw 23%, Ajax win 52%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 18 October 2026, kick-off: 15:45, venue: Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion, Groningen. Referee: Dennis Higler.
Who will be missing?
Groningen: no absences. Ajax: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 70% (odds 1.36); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 30% (odds 3.30).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 68% (odds 1.40).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–2 as most likely (9.2%), then 1–1 (8.7%) and 2–2 (6.7%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
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