Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 1–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Heerenveen play NEC Nijmegen at home on 31 October 2026 · 17:45 at Abe Lenstra Stadion (Heerenveen); the referee is Sander van der Eijk. For us, Heerenveen (45%) are favourites. Our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and a match analysis are below.
Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Heerenveen are 7th in the table, on 18 points after 11 matches (5W 3D 3L), and NEC Nijmegen are 13th, on 11 points (2W 5D 4L).
- Attack and defence. On average Heerenveen score 1.8 goals a match in the competition and concede 1.3; for NEC Nijmegen the figures are 1.7 scored and 1.8 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Heerenveen: 4W 3D 3L, goals 18–13; NEC Nijmegen: 2W 5D 3L, goals 17–18.
- Head to head. From 23 meetings: 6 wins for Heerenveen, 8 wins for NEC Nijmegen and 9 draws, with the goals at 28–34.
What to expect
We see an evenly matched game, with a 2–2 score estimate, roughly 4 goals in all, and 1–1 (9.0%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
In the goals market we pick Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.90), and we rate it at 51%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 69% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 69% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 23; Heerenveen 6 wins, 9 draws, NEC Nijmegen 8 wins.
- An average of 2.7 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: Heerenveen 18–13, NEC Nijmegen 17–18.
- Expected: roughly 4 goals; over 2.5 goals: 69%.
- Out: Heerenveen 1, NEC Nijmegen 6.
Alternative tip: Over 3.5 goals
Alternative tip: Over 3.5 goals (probability 49%, best price 2.05). With roughly 4 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Heerenveen: L. Smans. Absent for NEC Nijmegen: D. Geiger, E. Mor, B. Nuytinck, P. Sandler, D. Tadic, Y. Moslih. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 2.14 | 4.18 | 3.28 |
| Market average | 2.07 | 3.91 | 3.04 |
| Lowest odds | 2.00 | 3.48 | 2.73 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.13 | 1.09 | 85.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.43 | 1.36 | 69.1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.40 | 3.06 | 30.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.05 | 1.92 | 49.0% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.36 | 1.34 | 69.5% |
| BTTS – no | 3.25 | 3.05 | 30.5% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 31/10/26, 13:04. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 6.9%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Heerenveen 1–1 NEC Nijmegen, roughly 4 goals in total.
- Table: Heerenveen 7th (18 points), NEC Nijmegen 13th (11 points).
- Form in the competition: Heerenveen 4W 3D 3L (18:13), NEC Nijmegen 2W 5D 3L (17:18).
- H2H: 23 matches: Heerenveen 6W 9D 8L, goals 28–34.
- Absences: Heerenveen 1, NEC Nijmegen 6.
Who will win Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen: team news and absences
Heerenveen
- L. Smansnot in the squad · doubtful
NEC Nijmegen
- D. Geigernot in the squad · will miss the match
- E. Morgroin injury · will miss the match
- B. Nuytinckankle injury · will miss the match
- P. Sandlerinjury · will miss the match
- D. Tadiccalf injury · will miss the match
- Y. Moslihnot in the squad · doubtful
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Feyenoord | 11 | 7-4-0 | 33:12 | 25 |
| 2 |  Ajax | 11 | 7-3-1 | 30:13 | 24 |
| 3 |  PSV Eindhoven | 11 | 7-2-2 | 35:13 | 23 |
| 4 |  Twente | 11 | 7-2-2 | 28:10 | 23 |
| 5 |  AZ Alkmaar | 11 | 6-2-3 | 20:13 | 20 |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 11 | 5-4-2 | 18:18 | 19 |
| 7 | Heerenveen | 11 | 5-3-3 | 19:13 | 18 |
| 8 |  Groningen | 11 | 4-3-4 | 26:24 | 15 |
| 9 |  Cambuur | 11 | 4-3-4 | 23:22 | 15 |
| 10 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 11 | 3-5-3 | 23:27 | 14 |
| 11 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 11 | 3-3-5 | 20:26 | 12 |
| 12 |  Utrecht | 11 | 3-3-5 | 19:31 | 12 |
| 13 | NEC Nijmegen | 11 | 2-5-4 | 17:19 | 11 |
| 14 |  PEC Zwolle | 11 | 3-2-6 | 12:23 | 11 |
| 15 |  Excelsior | 11 | 3-2-6 | 16:28 | 11 |
| 16 |  Telstar | 11 | 2-3-6 | 16:23 | 9 |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 11 | 1-3-7 | 13:24 | 6 |
| 18 |  Willem II | 11 | 0-2-9 | 10:39 | 2 |
Recent matches
Heerenveen
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
HeerenveenWWWLWNEC NijmegenLDDDDHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen?
Draw or NEC Nijmegen (X2) (1.80); Under 3.5 goals (1.90).
Who will win Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen?
We estimate: Heerenveen win 45%, draw 24%, NEC Nijmegen win 31%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 31 October 2026, kick-off: 17:45, venue: Abe Lenstra Stadion, Heerenveen. Referee: Sander van der Eijk.
Who will be missing?
Heerenveen: L. Smans. NEC Nijmegen: D. Geiger, E. Mor, B. Nuytinck, P. Sandler, D. Tadic, Y. Moslih. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 69% (odds 1.43); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 31% (odds 3.40).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 69% (odds 1.36).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–1 as most likely (9.0%), then 2–1 (8.7%) and 1–2 (7.2%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.