Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 1–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Lech Poznań v Sunderland: 22 October 2026 · 17:45 at Stadion Miejski (Poznan), with Balázs Berke refereeing. We have Sunderland (51%) down as favourites. Scroll down for the tip, the chances of each outcome, absences and our breakdown of the game.
Lech Poznań vs Sunderland: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Lech Poznań are 32nd in the table, on 1 point after 3 matches (0W 1D 2L), and Sunderland are 9th, on 7 points (2W 1D 0L).
- Head to head. From 1 meetings: 0 wins for Lech Poznań, 0 wins for Sunderland and 1 draw, with the goals at 1–1.
What to expect
For us, Sunderland are the more likely winners. We estimate a 1–2 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 1–1 (11.1%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
In the goals market we pick Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.47), and we rate it at 65%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 57% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 55% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 1; Lech Poznań 0 wins, 1 draw, Sunderland 0 wins.
- An average of 2.0 goals per meeting between these teams.
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 55%.
- Out: Lech Poznań 0, Sunderland 0.
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes (probability 57%, best price 1.70). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Lech Poznań: no absences. Absent for Sunderland: no absences. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Lech Poznań vs Sunderland: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 4.29 | 3.90 | 1.90 |
| Market average | 4.05 | 3.76 | 1.84 |
| Lowest odds | 3.80 | 3.45 | 1.60 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.24 | 1.21 | 77.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.82 | 1.72 | 55.3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.20 | 2.13 | 44.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.83 | 2.72 | 34.5% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.70 | 1.63 | 57.2% |
| BTTS – no | 2.30 | 2.17 | 42.8% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 22/10/26, 16:29. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 6.0%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Lech Poznań 1–1 Sunderland, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Lech Poznań 32nd (1 point), Sunderland 9th (7 points).
- H2H: 1 match: Lech Poznań 0W 1D 0L, goals 1–1.
- Absences: Lech Poznań 0, Sunderland 0.
Who will win Lech Poznań vs Sunderland?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Lech Poznań vs Sunderland: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Lech Poznań vs Sunderland: team news and absences
Lech Poznań
- No reported absences
Sunderland
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Olympiakos Piraeus | 4 | 3-1-0 | 4:1 | 10 |
| 2 |  Benfica | 3 | 3-0-0 | 10:2 | 9 |
| 3 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 3 | 3-0-0 | 8:0 | 9 |
| 4 |  Bournemouth | 3 | 3-0-0 | 8:1 | 9 |
| 5 |  Ferencvárosi TC | 3 | 3-0-0 | 9:3 | 9 |
| 6 |  Union Saint-Gilloise | 3 | 2-1-0 | 8:1 | 7 |
| 7 |  Juventus | 3 | 2-1-0 | 9:3 | 7 |
| 8 |  Beşiktaş | 3 | 2-1-0 | 9:5 | 7 |
| 9 | Sunderland | 3 | 2-1-0 | 4:2 | 7 |
| 10 |  AZ Alkmaar | 3 | 2-0-1 | 6:2 | 6 |
| 11 |  Omonia Nicosia | 3 | 2-0-1 | 5:4 | 6 |
| 12 |  Rennes | 4 | 1-3-0 | 4:3 | 6 |
| 13 |  Lyon | 3 | 2-0-1 | 5:6 | 6 |
| 14 |  Real Sociedad | 3 | 1-1-1 | 8:3 | 4 |
| 15 |  Crystal Palace | 3 | 1-1-1 | 8:5 | 4 |
| 16 |  Sparta Praha | 3 | 1-1-1 | 5:3 | 4 |
| 17 |  Levski Sofia | 3 | 1-1-1 | 3:3 | 4 |
| 18 |  Dinamo Zagreb | 3 | 1-1-1 | 3:4 | 4 |
| 19 |  Sturm Graz | 3 | 1-1-1 | 1:3 | 4 |
| 20 |  NEC Nijmegen | 3 | 1-1-1 | 5:8 | 4 |
| 21 |  Red Bull Salzburg | 3 | 1-1-1 | 3:6 | 4 |
| 22 |  Anderlecht | 3 | 1-0-2 | 4:3 | 3 |
| 23 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 3 | 1-0-2 | 5:5 | 3 |
| 24 |  AC Milan | 3 | 1-0-2 | 4:5 | 3 |
| 25 |  Celta Vigo | 3 | 1-0-2 | 3:4 | 3 |
| 26 |  OFI | 3 | 1-0-2 | 3:4 | 3 |
| 27 |  Jagiellonia | 3 | 1-0-2 | 4:6 | 3 |
| 28 |  Torreense | 3 | 1-0-2 | 4:7 | 3 |
| 29 |  Celje | 3 | 0-1-2 | 2:7 | 1 |
| 30 |  Hapoel Beer Sheva | 3 | 0-1-2 | 1:6 | 1 |
| 31 |  Lillestrøm | 3 | 0-1-2 | 2:9 | 1 |
| 32 | Lech Poznań | 3 | 0-1-2 | 1:9 | 1 |
| 33 |  Plzeň | 3 | 0-0-3 | 2:7 | 0 |
| 34 |  Marseille | 3 | 0-0-3 | 1:6 | 0 |
| 35 |  Celtic | 3 | 0-0-3 | 3:9 | 0 |
| 36 |  Ararat-Armenia | 3 | 0-0-3 | 2:11 | 0 |
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Questions and answers
What do we tip for Lech Poznań vs Sunderland?
Lech Poznań +0.75 (Asian handicap) (1.93); Under 3.5 goals (1.47).
Who will win Lech Poznań vs Sunderland?
We estimate: Lech Poznań win 23%, draw 25%, Sunderland win 51%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 22 October 2026, kick-off: 17:45, venue: Stadion Miejski, Poznan. Referee: Balázs Berke.
Who will be missing?
Lech Poznań: no absences. Sunderland: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 55% (odds 1.82); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 45% (odds 2.20).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 57% (odds 1.70).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–1 as most likely (11.1%), then 0–1 (10.1%) and 1–2 (9.7%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
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